CLUELESS WAR?JOE BIDEN REGIME NEEDS TO REVIEW THE NUCLEAR ACCORD WITH IRAN, CHINA WOULD WELCOME IT.CHINA 25-YEAR DEAL WITH IRAN IS GOOD OMEN

Dear readers while keeping Iran-China-US relation as central focus, we in this Article intend highlighting the dynamic idea of harnessing& reframing Global Disorder in the Post Covid-19 Regime. Today,there seems no historic/text book solution to the global strategic power-shift presently, in near future, midterm future or distant future but there are essentials data analysis, blinking indicators, ground reality & basic assumptions which should enable us to assess /distinguish& accept past as “let bygones be bygones”, while making current and future policies &strategic decisions, for that the change of old mindset is essential. Why because Bio-techno-digital environments have transformed the field of warfare from conventional, nuclear or distant warfare to Nano Tools, Cyber Warfare, E-Crimes &Geo-economic terrorism. We recently saw a big Change in Iran-China-US relations. India-China Conflict, signing of Afghan Agreement, melting of ice in Pak-India relations, Arab Israel power shift, change in Russian diplomacy, British exit from EU and the standstill of most powerful economies by Covid menace or minority issues. Glaring points and the logic behind this power shift is as follows:-

• War is an obsolete tool for resolving matters anymore, today peace remains the harbinger of cold war/conflict between East and West.
• The cold war today encompass Environmental, Technological and Economic competitiveness and related push and pull of that.
• Imposing economic sanctions against Fragile States which are having leadership crisis /regime of unruly mafias & corrupt extremists, sanctions may fire back adversely.
• IRAN is not a bananas republic& Joe Bidden is not Donald Trump, meaning there by both must be willing to go for peaceful negotiations, irrespective of Iran nuclear arm race against Israel?
• South Asia has emerged as the safe abode or investment hub for the Covid prone western countries. China has emerged as Super Spin Master (in positive sense). It played the magic of E –currency which is much superior tool than Nuclear Bomb. Rest of the world by now has lost sight of crypto- currency /Bit-coin use .
• More than 7 nuclear states or potential nuclear powers are located in South Asia and Central Asia .Likewise more than15 blood thirsty tribes, cultures, nations, cult and clan still are dwellers of SA Region with a very dreadful neighborhood of ME, Gulf Region (Iran Iraq, Syria ……..etc,etc). Most of oil producing countries are fragile states now?
• After Brexit what is the sum total of war potentials of EU, NATO, USA …..the answer is no potential of conventional war but limited Proxy War stamina at some places. Dealing with terrorists the best tool is taming them towards civilized behavior & keep tolerating underground word extremists &terrorists or blunt them with Black Water/use Economic Hit men?
• Today war is too lethal, Nations have neither money nor resources to wage war even on a minor scale, what to talk of conquering SA, ME, Europe or Africa or blunting Healthy wealthy and smiling China?
• If at all a regional block is in the making in SA, it would be futile to leave India behind or letting USA suppressing any nation in the region or getting India behind every black deed against China, Pakistan, Afghanistan or Iran stability.
• What USA should do ….Do as the Roman do (be part of China Horizons, CPEC and try to restore Peace in SA.Win the hearts and mind of the people, nations and global community with Digital Technology hyper-connectivity, global citizenship and preventing cybercrimes through a multinational /multilateral coordinated effort. Get the outstanding regional issues resolved like Kashmir problem so as to temper/reduce the hatred, malice & anger to a greater extent.Invest in Climate Change, fight against global warming /environmental Protection & strengthen WHO as best as possible.

1. The Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program or Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Iran, China is an agreement on Iran–China relations drafted on 24 June 2020 in Beijing between Iran and China. The original plan for cooperation had been brought by Chinese leader Xi Jinping in 2016 during a visit to Iran. The document's draft is 18 papers long. The draft was initially leaked to the New York Times by someone close to the draft. Petroleum Economist reports that the agreement includes up to US$ 280 billion developing Iran's oil, gas and petrochemicals sectors and another US$120 billion investment in upgrading Iran's transport and manufacturing infrastructure. According to Iranian authorities, reviving the One Belt One Road is also part of the agreement. .China and Iran signed an overarching deal aimed at charting the course of their economic, political and trade relations over the next 25 years. The Chinese government plans to invest in Iran and buy oil from the Islamic Republic, further straining ties with the U.S. already frayed by China’s imports of covertly-shipped Iranian crude.  

2 .The “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” agreement provided the opportunity for  the first Chinese leader to visit the Iranian capital in over a decade. Beijing’s alliance with Tehran is a challenge to U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration as apparently it sets about trying to rally allies against China, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said is the world’s “greatest geopolitical test.”“The document can elevate bilateral ties to a new strategic level,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said in a televised interview. The deal focuses on boosting private-sector collaboration and Iran’s role in Xi’s flagship infrastructure and investment program, the Belt and Road Initiative. Based on the agreement China has agreed to inject $280 billion to $400 billion by Foreign Direct Investment into Iranian oil, gas and petrochemical industries. President Hassan Rouhani signed the final draft of the program on June 23 in a cabinet meeting and ordered the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to finalize the negotiations. On October 1, 2020 President Rouhani sent a message to Xi Jinping, who is also the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, about signing the program.

4 .A draft copy of the accord that surfaced on media last year showed plans for long-term supply of Iranian crude to China as well as investment in oil, gas, petrochemical, renewables and nuclear energy infrastructure. Lured by the prospect of cheaper prices, China has already increased its imports of Iranian oil to around 1 million barrels a day, eroding U.S. leverage as it prepares to enter stalled talks with Tehran to revive a nuclear deal. The Biden administration has indicated that it’s open to reengaging with Iran after then-President Donald Trump abandoned the accord nearly three years ago and imposed economic sanctions, but the two sides have yet to even agree to meet. Iran exported around 2.5 million barrels of oil a day before American penalties resumed. Iran’s closer integration with China may help shore up its economy against the impact of the U.S. sanctions, while sending a clear signal to the White House of Tehran’s intentions. Wang Yi, who arrived in Tehran on Friday, also met with Rouhani to discuss the nuclear deal.In a televised speech, Rouhani raised the prospect of restrictions being eased before the end of his second and final term as president in early August.“We’re ready for the lifting of sanctions,” he said on Saturday. “If obstacles are removed, all or at least some sanctions can be lifted.”

5 . Nature  of Iran –China Rapprochement. A 25-year agreement to expand ties Beijing has become Tehran’s most important commercial partner as US sanctions have been choking the Irani neck. Few points to ponder are:-

• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei hailed the prospect of a 25-year partnership as “more co-operation between independent states. Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran MARCH 27 2021 says Iran and China have signed a 25-year agreement to expand ties as the Islamic republic struggles to prove the resilience of its economy against decades of US sanctions.
• Details of the agreement were not disclosed and it was not clear how much it might have changed from an 18-page draft — seen by the Financial Times last year — which did not indicate any strategic shift in Iran’s foreign policy.
• The draft covered co-operation in areas from energy, petrochemicals and nuclear power to the high-tech and military sectors as well as maritime projects to promote Iran’s role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It contained no information on China’s investments in Iran.
• Many lights in various sectors, notably the energy sector, will turn green for Chinese companies. This also shows to the US that Iran is not tied up with the rope of sanctions anymore.
• Iran looks to China as US sanctions bite the stability of the SA Region .China became a lifeline for Iran’s economy despite cutting oil imports after Donald Trump pulled the US out of the 2015 nuclear agreement that Tehran had signed with major powers including China.
• Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said the agreement was a “road map” for trade and economic and transportation cooperation, with a special focus on both countries’ private sectors.
• Zarif, in a meeting with Wang, called China “a friend during difficult times” and thanked Beijing for its “actions and positions during the unjust sanctions”.
• Iran’s markets have been kept supplied with Chinese products from machinery and spare parts to clothing, toys and stationery despite toughened sanctions which remain in place under the Biden administration.
• A senior US official told the Financial Times this month that Iran’s oil exports to China had been increasing “for some time now” and that Washington had told Beijing it would enforce Trump-era sanctions.
• During the last Iranian year, which ended on March 20, the country’s total trade figure was $73bn, with China the top partner, according to the customs administration. Iran’s exports to China reached $8.9bn and imports from China stood at $9.7bn. These figures do not include considerable volumes of Chinese products reimported from other destinations. But scaling up business to multibillion-dollar projects and full implementation of any future agreement with China will remain dependent on negotiations with the new US administration and removal of sanctions, according to business figures.
• The signing of the documents during the Persian New Year holidays and refusal to disclose any details could be intended to avoid public criticism, analysts said. The Chinese foreign minister has been on a week-long regional tour since Wednesday. He has visited Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran, from where he will continue to the UAE, Oman and Bahrain.  
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, who said: “Iran decides independently on its relations with other countries and is not like some countries that change their position with one phone call.”
• Wang met President Hassan Rouhani ahead of the signing in Tehran. The agreement was expected to include Chinese investments in sectors such as energy and infrastructure. China has spoken out often against U.S. sanctions on Iran and partly contested them. Zarif called it “a friend for hard times”.
• Rouhani expressed appreciation of Beijing’s support for Iran’s position on its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, in which it agreed to curb its nuclear programme in return for the lifting of international sanctions.
• The accord brings Iran into China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a multi-trillion-dollar infrastructure scheme intended to stretch from East Asia to Europe.The project aims to significantly expand China’s economic and political influence, and has raised concerns in the United States.
• Cooperation between the two countries is very important for the implementation of the nuclear accord and the fulfilment of obligations by European countries,” Rouhani said, according to his official website.
• U.S. President Joe Biden has sought to revive talks with Iran on the nuclear deal abandoned in 2018 by his predecessor, Donald Trump in 2018. Tehran wants the sanctions that Trump imposed removed before any negotiations resume.
• China would provide more coronavirus vaccines to Iran, the Middle Eastern country worst-hit by the pandemic.

6. Impact of Iran –China Rapprochement. China had been mindful of the US sensitive over Iran and largely avoided edging too close to the Islamic republic since the establishment of official ties with Washington in 1979, according to Hua, who was Beijing’s envoy in Tehran from 1991 to 1995.“Since the Carter administration, the US has often reminded China of its relations with Iran, which was seen by Americans as an impediment to the US-China relationship. But with fundamental changes in China-US relations in recent months, that era has gone,” he said. China’s 25-year agreement with Iran underlies a shift in its Middle East strategy as relations with the United States deteriorate, China’s deal with Iran marks ‘momentous’ change as ties with US sour, says former ambassador. Few points to ponder:-

• Beijing would be very cautious in its dealings with the Islamic Republic to avoid upsetting Washington (Diplomatically it is MUKK MUKKA).
• Pakistan is most beneficiary since Pak-China-India-Russia relation would pave the way for trade with CAS through Afghanistan-Turkey-Iran.
• It will considerably control extremism and terrorism in the region Iran would now be less antagonized with Israel provided US relations improve and that is what Joe Biden is likely to opt for.
• South Asian region is now poised strongly for gaining balance of power, peace & stability.
• USA will emerge as the most blessed, benefitted and most organized trade seeker in SA Region after renegotiating Nuclear Deal/ Agreement with Iran.
• Nothing significant is likely to deter the Iran-China Rapprochement.
• Iran and KSA relations will improve with the help of China Pakistan diplomatic initiatives gradually.
• After China-Iran Agreement Pak- India relations are not likely to deteriorate in future.