War in War: Wagner’s Mutiny in Russia and Implications on the War in Sudan and Sahel

A beleaguered Putin on Saturday morning addressed a bewildered nation, threatening to punish “those preparing an armed rebellion” against the Russian federation.?Mr Vladimir Putin in his reaction to Wagner’s (Russian paramilitary company) mutiny which occurred early Saturday morning, declared that “any internal turmoil is a deadly threat to our statehood for us as a nation; it is a blow to Russia for our people and our actions to protect our homeland. Such a threat will face a severe response.”

Prior to the mutiny, there were palpable tension between the mercenary group and Russia’s top military echelon. However things have unpredictably escalated as Mr Yevgeny Prigozhin has now led a mutinous take-over of ‘Rostov-on-Don,’ the headquarters of Russia’s southern military command.

Implication of the Mutiny in Africa?

The crisis in both Mali and Sudan has links to Russian influence. While the Wagner group actively supports the Malian military junta in the fight against Jihadists in the Sahel region, it however provides logistics and combat ready support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan. Much of its support to these groups and other entities in Africa have the diplomatic approval of Kremlin.

Putin has largely not hidden his intention to widen Kremlin’s influence within the African landscape. In the last few months, senior Russian officials have made repeated visit to Africa in search of new allies especially in the face of a deteriorating relationship with the West.

In November 2022, Russia made a commitment totalling almost $100 million to Mali. The commitment also included tonnes of fertilizers, petroleum, wheat and other vital products.

In addition to the off-battlefield support, Kremlin also provided combat military support. In late January 2023, the support was scaled up with several military equipment including warplanes and helicopters.

The support also compelled Mali’s military junta to open its doors in the Sahel region to the Wagner group. The intervention in the war against the jihadists by the mercenary group was also necessitated by the expulsion of France by Mali’s military junta.

In Sudan the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have also enjoyed unmitigated technical support from Wagner. The support has largely come in the form of weaponry and paramilitary assistance as the RSF battle against the Sudanese Military. The United States Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) recently revealed that the Wagner Group supplied surface-to-air missiles to the RSF.

The Wagner Group has also played a central role in the conflict in Central African Republic (CAR) by providing military assistance and direct protection of the CAR’s seat of power. The group also protects the vast diamond and gold mines of CAR from armed rebel groups.

The United State has however described the presence of Wagner in Africa as a “destabilization.” The US Treasury Department statement said: "The Wagner Group's presence on the African continent is a destabilising force for any country that allows for the deployment of the group's resources into their sovereign territory,"

The latest mutiny has however upset the power balance in these countries. This is more so with reported redeployment of Wagner Forces from the African frontlines to strengthen Wagner’s position in Russia. This would also mean a scale down in Wagner’s logistics support and other military assistance to its African allies.

Although it may be too early to predict, one thing that is certain is that Wagner would most likely prioritise its defence against the existential threat it now face at home above any other external interest. The larger implication is that we may soon see a change in the conflict outcomes in Sudan, Mali, CAR, etc.

The mutiny would also mean a weakened Kremlin which may no longer be able to keep its commitment to its African allies.