The war in Ukraine: Can the proposals submitted by the Ukrainian and Russian governments end the war?

In recent days, and particularly after the incident involving Ukrainian missiles that fell on Polish territory, killing two Polish citizens, many politicians have realized how close we are to beginning a new world war if the Russian army launched the missiles intentionally or unintentionally and NATO takes as true the wrong and unconfirmed information provided by the Ukrainian Presidente on who is behind the incident. For this reason, more and more governments, politicians, military personnel, and experts are demanding not the delivery of more weapons to Ukraine to continue the war against Russia but the beginning of negotiations to reach an immediate ceasefire and, later, a legally binding security guarantee agreement to officially end the war and to avoid that a new war begins.

Once Russia and Ukraine officially agree to begin a negotiation process to end the war in Ukraine, an agreement should be adopted as soon as possible on how the negotiation process will be organized and which countries must be invited to participate. It should be carried out in two stages to speed up the negotiation process. The objective to be reached in the first stage is to adopt a ceasefire arrangement to stop the fighting. After adopting a ceasefire arrangement, negotiations for officially ending the war should begin between Russia and Ukraine, among other participants to be selected. The main goal of this negotiation is to adopt a binding agreement to definitively end the war, giving Russia and Ukraine the necessary legally binding security guarantees to ensure that another war between them will not occur.

If the war should be stopped immediately, why then the negotiation process be divided into two parts? This decision is because a ceasefire arrangement is a temporary cessation of military operations that does not definitively stop the war but is a crucial step in that direction. A ceasefire arrangement provides an important cooling-off period that paves the way for negotiating more sensitive issues that cannot or are extremely difficult to be addressed if military operations are going on. This type of arrangement is one of the first and most important steps to stop military operations and begin a peace negotiation process.

It is important to stress that only points directly related to a ceasefire arrangement should be considered in the first stage of the negotiation process. This decision will speed up the process of reaching an agreement on these points and stop all military operations. In the second stage, once all military operations have stopped, the most controversial issues should be negotiated, convinced that some of these points will require more time to find a solution acceptable to all countries.

The Ukrainian proposal

Two proposals have been presented for a ceasefire arrangement and legally binding security guarantees to end the war. The proposal submitted by President Zelensky contains the Ukrainian conditions for negotiating a ceasefire and a binding agreement to end the war with Russia. The points included in President Zelenski's proposal are, according to the Straits Times, the following:

1. Radiation and nuclear safety: Russia must return the management of the Zaporiyia nuclear power plant to the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency and Ukrainian personnel, as well as to the Ukrainian nuclear authorities;
2. Food security: Russia should agree on the Ukrainian "Grain From Ukraine" initiative to fight hunger and the food crisis at the world level;
3. Energy security: The war destroyed about 40% of the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. This situation limits or impedes the export of Ukrainian electricity generated by its plants to neighboring countries. For this reason, price restrictions on Russian energy resources should be introduced;
4. Prisoners and deportees: Russia and Ukrainian should organize the exchange of war prisoners and the return from Russia of all Ukraine citizens that wish to do so;
5. United Nations Charter and Ukraine's territorial integrity: Russia must reaffirm the territorial integrity of Ukraine; this means the return of the Crimea Peninsula, the Donbas, Zaporiyia, and Jerson regions, as well as any other Ukrainian sites under Russian control. According to the Ukraine government, this point is not subject to negotiations;
6. Russian troops and hostilities: Russia must withdraw all its troops and armed formations from the territory of Ukraine;
7. Justice: A Special Tribunal to judge the crime of Russia against Ukraine and the creation of an international mechanism to oblige Russia, with its asset, to compensate Ukraine for all damages caused by this war;
8. Immediate protection of the environment: International assistance should be provided to protect millions of hectares of forest burned by shelling and almost 200,000 ha of land contaminated with unexploded mines and shells. There is an urgent need for increased equipment and experts to carry out the demining activity in the country. Funds and technologies are also needed for the restoration of water treatment facilities;
9. Prevention of escalation: Ukraine is not a member of any alliances and taking advantage of this situation, Russia was able to start this war against Ukraine. An international conference to agree on the key elements of the post-war security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including guarantees for Ukraine, should be held in parallel to the negotiations of a legally binding security guarantee agreement. The main outcome of the conference should be the signing of the Kyiv Security Compact. This document calls for Western countries to provide political, financial, military, and diplomatic resources to boost Kyiv's ability to defend itself;
10. Confirmation of the end of the war: When all the anti-war measures are implemented, and security and justice begin to be restored, the parties should sign a document confirming the end of the war. States ready to take the lead in this process can become parties to the arrangement.

After reading the above proposal carefully, the following conclusions should be reached:

• These proposal mix issues related to a ceasefire arrangement and a lasting legally binding security guarantees agreement and points to be discussed outside the framework of these agreements. The most urgent issue to discuss immediately at a negotiation table is points related to the adoption of a ceasefire arrangement as soon as possible to stop the fighting. For this reason, points 1, 5, 7, 9, and 10 of the Ukrainian proposal should be discussed in the second stage of the negotiation process.

It is important to single out that, according to the Ukrainian government, point 5 is not subject to negotiation. Due to its importance for Russia, this proposal will be rejected by Russia and will be one of the blocking points in negotiating this agreement.

Points 2 and 3 have nothing to do with a ceasefire arrangement and a legally binding security guarantee agreement to end the war. These two points could be discussed outside the negotiations of these agreements;

• From the ten conditions submitted by President Zelenski to discuss at the negotiation table, points 4, 6, and 8 are the ones that could be included in the agenda for a ceasefire arrangement. However, in a ceasefire arrangement, other points are relevant to reach an agreement to stop fighting. These points are, among others, the following:

a)?????Establishing a demilitarized zone along the front line, the type of defensive weapons that can be deployed in the demilitarized zone, the number of troops to be deployed in this zone, and where these troops should be deployed. The supervising organ of the ceasefire arrangement should be informed in advance of any movement of troops along the frontline and within the demilitarized zone;

b)?????How the provision of humanitarian assistance to the Ukrainian and Russian citizens living in cities and towns in Ukraine territory by the Red Cross or any other similar governmental and non-governmental organizations, and the Red Cross or any other similar governmental and non-governmental organizations in the occupied zones will be carried out;

c)?????The role of the supervising organ to be selected (could be the United Nations) in implementing the ceasefire arrangement;

d)?????The role of the United Nations peacekeeping forces in separating the Ukrainian and Russian military forces alone the front line or any other military forces or organization agreed upon by Russia and Ukraine.

e)?????The role of the United Nations Security Council in ensuring the implementation of this arrangement by all parties and how it would deal with the violation of the ceasefire arrangement detected.

?The Russian proposal

During the negotiations to end the Ukrainian war held first in Belarus and second in Türkiye after the beginning of the war, Russia presented, according to Business Standard newspaper, a four-point formula that would keep NATO out of Ukraine and most of the territories that were once a part of the former Soviet Union. Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov stressed that Moscow sought legally binding security guarantees from NATO members about the expansion of this organization toward the east. These security guarantees were of fundamental importance to ensure peace in the region. The four-point proposal is the following:

1.?????NATO must abandon the 'Bucharest formula' that the Alliance had adopted during its 2008 Bucharest summit. The Bucharest formula envisions the inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia in the Alliance. Western countries should refrain from establishing military facilities on the territory of former USSR states that are not members of the Alliance, including using their infrastructure for conducting any military activity.

2.?????NATO must follow the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997, which froze the grouping's military capabilities, including strike capabilities, and NATO infrastructure to that year.

3.?????Ukraine must adopt a position of political neutrality, implying that Ukraine should legally commit to not becoming a part of any military alliance but can have its own armed forces. The Ukraine government will not allow the establishment of any foreign military base in its territory, join any international military alliance or participate in a war.

4.?????Ukrainian establishment must undergo a de-Nazification process.

The following conclusions should be reached after studying this proposal carefully:

·????????The Russian proposal includes point 2, which should be discussed with NATO directly without the participation of Ukrainian representatives;

·????????Points 1, 3, and 4 of the Russian proposal should be included in the agenda of the negotiations table of a legally binding security guarantee agreement with Ukraine.

Reaching an agreement during the negotiations of point 2 of the Russian proposal is an important objective for the international community. It could avoid a new arms race due to the Ukrainian war, limiting the resources to deal with other issues such as inflation, high energy prices, pandemics and diseases, terrorism, and hunger.

The negotiation of point 1 will not be easy if NATO continues its open-door policy because this is the policy used by the Alliance to justify its expansion to other regions outside Europe.

Point 4 of the Russian proposal will be, without any doubt, another blocking point of the negotiations of a legally binding security guarantee agreement with Ukraine.