War Trauma's Lasting Impact on Society

William Faulkner wrote in "Requiem for a Nun" that the past was not dead; that it was not even past. The aftermath of war lives with us and shapes our country in ways we don't understand.?(1) A New York Times article on November 19, 2024, highlighted census data and analysis methodology that can estimate war dead to the county level. Using this data and analytical approach, David Hacker has received a grant from the National Institutes of Health to assess the mental health trauma from these casualty levels on communities after the Civil War. The Census data is granular enough to be applied to the county level for a study of localized impact.?The research question of how much did trauma affect Southern society after 1865 is an important one and perhaps one that we may still being living with today.

In trying to understand the attitudes that led to the Civil War, I read two books on the Southern elite belief system.? Both of the books have been summarized on my blog Sleepless in Baghdad -- William Percy's "Lanterns on the Levee" and Erik Larson's "Demon of Unrest." They both highlight a belief in chivalry and noblesse oblige that in many ways formed the essence of Southern aristocracy's view of the world in 1860.?(2) That philosophical approach led to a devastating war that essentially destroyed the South and created the conditions that would lead to over a century of repression and violence against blacks. .

This New York Times article published on November 19, 2024, described the study using recently release census data that was able to better estimate the number of war dead among military age men (15 yrs - 34yrs). According to research published this month, "New Estimates of US Civil War mortality from full-census records," the South's losses were up to 100 percent greater than North in terms of the percentage of this age group that was killed in the Civil War. Only one state in the North had a ten percent death rate of this cohort (Illinois) while the South had seven states that exceeded this amount: Louisiana - 19% of men aged 15 yrs to 34 yrs in 1860 are estimated to have been killed during the Civil War; South Carolina - 17%; Georgia - 17%; Alabama - 15%; North Carolina - 14%; Virginia - 12%; Mississippi - 12%; Tennessee - 7%.

The American Civil War (1861–1865) remains the deadliest conflict in U.S. history, with estimates of total deaths varying due to incomplete records, especially from the Confederacy. Traditionally, the death toll was cited as approximately 618,000. However, a 2011 study by David Hacker, utilizing a 1% sample of census data, revised this estimate to around 750,000 deaths. A more recent analysis, leveraging the full count of individual census returns and linked records across multiple censuses, has provided a refined estimate of 698,000 deaths. The methodology of the new study is explained below - for summary of the study see https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2414919121.

"Leveraging these newly available historical data, we introduce a migration-adjusted census comparison method for estimating excess mortality in the Civil War at the subnational level. First, for each state we estimate the expected hypothetical peacetime raw death rate in the 1860–1870 census period for each 10-y age cohort of military-age (5 to 44) native-born white males (hereafter, NBWM) by averaging observed death rates for these age groups in the 1850–1860 and 1870–1880 periods.? Second, we calculate raw excess mortality due to the Civil War in each age cohort; this is the difference between expected and observed mortality in the 1860–1870 census decade. Third, using the linked census records, we similarly estimate the expected outmigration rate in 1860–1870 in each age cohort by averaging the observed peacetime rates in 1850–1860 and 1870–1880, and then calculate the excess war-related outmigration rate by subtracting the observed rate from this expected rate. Next, we subtract the excess outmigration rate from the excess mortality rate. This leaves us with a migration-adjusted excess mortality rate. Finally, to turn that rate into a raw count of deaths we multiply it by the 1860 population of NBWM and sum the numbers across all the age cohorts to arrive at a state-level tally. Adding state tallies across the Confederacy and the Union we arrive at bloc-specific excess mortality estimates (8)."

A new NIH funded study "Models of Demographic and Health Changes following Military Conflict" will build on the recent study --?"Civil War Toll Much Worse in Confederate States, New Estimates Show."? I believe the NIH study will be incredibly interesting as it seeks to understand the impact of war trauma on societal outcomes. When we assess the total impact of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, there should be a similar study to assess impact at the most granular level possible.

For more information on the Civil War study you can access various Excel data files placed on the Harvard data verse site --?https://dataverse.harvard.edu/file.xhtml?fileId=10638711&version=3.0 -- showing the excess number of deaths for the age group 15 - 34 years (military age men in 1860). The data file name is "Replication Data for: New Estimates of U.S. Civil War Mortality From Full-Census Records."?

1. The phrase "The past is never dead. It's not even past." originates from William Faulkner's 1951 novel Requiem for a Nun. This line reflects Faulkner's exploration of how historical events and personal histories persistently influence the present. He suggests that past experiences and actions continue to shape current realities, indicating that the past is an integral part of the present. This concept aligns with the idea that history is not merely a series of concluded events but an ongoing influence that permeates contemporary life. It underscores the importance of acknowledging and understanding historical contexts to fully grasp current circumstances.?

2. "Noblesse oblige" is a French phrase that translates to "nobility obliges." It embodies the concept that individuals of high rank, wealth, or social status have a moral obligation to act honorably, generously, and responsibly toward those less privileged.