War of Titans for 15 sq inches

“Zoom” it came and gave the biggest cushion to humanity, by providing them with Social connect during these trying times of physical distancing and at the same time Zoomed my thinking back into a war which I think started in 1998, leaving me pondering who lost the plot in this long ranging war.  

The War is for conquering the maximum space out of 15 sq inches! This 15 sq inches, is considered as the average real estate of all mobile phones (having a screen size of 5.8” as the median) sold and all companies in the world, all governments in the world are fighting to corner the maximum space, core space, first level space in this 15 sq inch miracle, Mobile Phone! 

We had the industrial revolution in the 18th century (1760), telecom revolution in the 19th century (1875 telephone), technological revolution in the 20th century (which enhanced both the earlier revolutions) and now the information or data revolution in the 21st century. So, this war is about the Data, information, movement, behavior of the human being and eventually control of humanity, through this 15 sq inches! 

Let us ‘Tik’ the various battles which have been part of this war. But firstly who are the key parties to this war – Microsoft - the oldest, most toughest, financially most powerful, politically most influential and normally a late entrant into each battle; Google, innovative, politically least controversial, works on phenomena of masses, and then we have got others who are part of various battles, but not the entire war like Apple, Amazon, Facebook (WhatsApp & Instagram included) etc.. 

MY REALISATION OF THIS EXISTING WAR 

When I got Zoomed during this lockdown, my affair with Google got into a turmoil. I met my wife in 1998 and same year my affair with Google started. It was tough dividing my time and attention between my wife and Google and giving my full loyalty and dedication to them! I got triggered into this realisation of a war, when I had to install Zoom (followed by MS Teams) on all phones, tablets and desktops in my office, parents, family, across all operating systems! How can Google do it again, concede the turf to a rival second time (first being WhatsApp), despite having Duo, Hangouts and Meet! At the same time, MS Teams led my interaction with my old flame, Microsoft, whom I had dumped in the beginning of this century, and then slowly she took a bigger corner of my heart and mind, again! 

FIRST GLIMPSE OF WAR 

My first touch and feel of this war came during an interaction with Bill Gates in New Delhi, on 8th December 2005, when he mentioned about the business model of Microsoft - “the user pays for the services he uses, not someone else paying for the services you are using”, clearly meaning the strategy of Google wherein their model was supported by revenue from advertisements, while consumer used its services. There was nothing free in Microsoft - it was all paid or pirated!

BATTLE OF SEARCH 

When we want to conquer a territory, we start with a search! From MSN Search to Bing, Microsoft is still searching to getting it right! Although Google Search still has a strong grip; two factors should take some market share away. Firstly, specific searches moving to more focused sites like Amazon for products Zomato for dining etc. Secondly issues such as privacy, data, advertisements etc., are also giving way to engines like DuckDuckGo. So, Google’s hold on the revenue through searches might be reduced.  

BATTLE OF COMMUNICATION – VOICE TO VIDEO, EMAIL TO CHAT 

We started using these 15 sq inch spaces for communication, only the modes changed from voice calls to video calls, from email to chat. More than 74% owners of this space are from Google community, still it is letting others enter this area with their own solutions. 

The buyout of Hotmail by Microsoft in 1996, could not sustain the onslaught of Gmail which came in 2004! I think anyone who has an email address, will have a Gmail address for sure, immaterial of the OS or loyalty. On the personal use, Gmail is still the winner and no matter how much Microsoft has improved Outlook, they could not change people’s Outlook away from Gmail!  

Emails have moved to chats! Interestingly in this battle came WhatsApp, which changed the course of communication. While business users moved to Slack, MS Teams, Flock etc., individual users moved to WhatsApp, WeChat, Telegram etc.  

Chats moved to video calls! Google having launched Google Talk in 2005 had a head start to WhatsApp, which came in 2009. But the entry of WhatsApp was the turning point in this war. After WhatsApp, no one could regain its territory and have been losing the pie, day in day out. Kaizala carries the reputation of Microsoft and is better than WhatsApp, is like Telegram, but no one knows about it! The core of this war of 15 sq inch is to win back the territory from WhatsApp, which both Google and Microsoft have not been able to do. Even on the enterprise solutions, MS Teams is making fast in roads and Google is nowhere to be seen. 

BATTLE OF SME BUSINESS SOLUTIONS 

The glimpse of war given in 2005, clearly pointed out the coming fight of Google Apps with Microsoft products. While Google Apps was launched on February 10, 2006, Microsoft launched Office 365 on June 28, 2011. Google rode the success of Google Apps and entered territories of Microsoft, but now the tables are turning. As of April 2020, G Suite had 6 million paying businesses, and 120 million G Suite for Education users. While according to Microsoft’s FY20 Q1 results, Office 365 now has 200 million monthly active users. According to Statista G Suite enjoys a 55.2% market share as compared to 38% of Office 365, but this is rapidly changing and reflects that paying customers moving from Google to Microsoft. 

BATTLE OF SOCIAL MEDIA 

This is the most important battle for the 15 sq inch space and none of them have it right. Why they have been losing repeatedly is for someone to see. Google could not encash its Google Profile, Orkut or even Google Circles. Both Google and Microsoft could not see the writing on the wall with Facebook and then WhatsApp, followed by Instagram. Despite all the negativity and issues about privacy/ethics, Facebook (including WhatsApp and Instagram) still have a super strong grip on this. Microsoft bought LinkedIn in 2016 and carved some part of the pie. Google is nowhere in this Social Media battle. Recently someone wrote “TikTok, a kinder, gentler social network than Facebook and Twitter, aligns culturally with Microsoft’s carefully groomed image.”  So, are we looking at TikTok as the Facebook from Microsoft stable! 

BATTLE OF VIRTUAL MEETINGS 

Google launched Hangouts in May 15, 2013, just few months after Zoom, which was launched on January 25, 2013, but then the rest is history and Hangouts is history! In the new normal, Zoom has become generic for virtual meetings and have been able to withstand the onslaught against its any Chinese connections! What WhatsApp is to a mobile phone, Zoom has become for virtual meetings. Except for enterprise solutions, Zoom is the clear and sole leader in this space. Even in the school space MS Teams has taken the lead and Meet has just been confined to G Suite users only.  

BATTLE OF ONLINE VIDEOS 

The 2nd most important ace in Google’s stable was YouTube, which it bought in 2006 and virtually had a monopoly in this segment. But with recent inroads of Facebook, both in videos and live streaming, this is already been eroded. Google is trying to salvage that by merging Google Play Music into YouTube music and aggressively promoting paid versions of YouTube. However, the buyout of TikTok by Microsoft will be the biggest gamechanger in this category. It might give it inroads in social media (Facebook/Instagram) and online videos (YouTube). With the credibility of Microsoft, it will be easier for them to encash TikTok as Facebook and YouTube combined! 

BATTLES OF MOBILE OS 

When it comes to touch, Apple’s iPhone launch in 2007 set the new standard and questioned the leader Nokia. My first Android was Nexus 1, when Google launched it in 2010 and I have been an Android buff ever since. Although Microsoft launched its Windows phone in 2010 and had some particularly good features to use, the individual consumer’s psyche is what Microsoft has not been able to understand till now. Android’s market share of 74% dwarfs' others including Apple and it might be able to hold ground for some time. But eventually whenever others like Samsung etc., eat the share, it will not be from Apple, but from Android. So, Google is more vulnerable here also. Moreover, touch screens do not seem to be a Microsoft forte. It seems that Microsoft has conceded defeat in this battle. 

BATTLE OF MOBILE PAYMENTS 

This has become an extremely hot space and WhatsApp, Google, Apple, Amazon, Samsung are all vying, but Microsoft is nowhere to be seen? In fact, Google Pay (Tez) in India has a substantial market share in India. This space is to be seen, as this should be the next layer of treasure inside these 15 sq inch spaces! Even with 74% market share, it is to be seen if Google can stop the momentum of WhatsApp and its idea of Libra.  

BATTLE OF BRAND VALUE 

As per a recent article in Forbes, Microsoft’s brand value went up by 30% from 2019 to 2020, but still it is at number three after Google. Apple only has one brand Apple, unlike others. Although it is number three, Microsoft should have been number one (value of brand is also about profitability), except that its whole list of brands like Outlook, Office, Kaizala (Marathi for What Happened! Microsoft Chat sounds better?), Skype,etc., slice the value out. An Apple a day keeps the doctor away! The power of Focus and single brand is something to be learnt from Apple, Amazon and then Google! 

 BATTLE OF APP STORES 

Who is gaining with the US China trade wars? Cannot say, but for sure Google might lose in the long term. Google earned US$ 7.7 billion as compared with Apple’s US$ 14.2 billion from its App stores. And with Huawei and other Chinese/Asian companies coming with their own App stores, they will eat the Google pie and cannot touch the Apple pie! 

BATTLE FOR CONSUMERS’ FOCUS - POWER OF SIMPLICITY 

We have all experienced minimalism in the past few months with lockdowns, but the world had seen the power of simplicity/minimalism by few of its most successful icons – Mahatama Gandhi, Apple, etc. This is where Microsoft loses the battles and one of the reasons it is losing multiple battles, especially when it is about individual users. Apple has only ‘iPhone/Pad, Mac and rest all is Apple. Amazon has everything in its jungle called Amazon. Almost all the Google products identify with Google, e.g. Google Chrome, Google Maps, Google Finance, et al. The biggest loser in this battle is Microsoft, with a list of products which also includes Yammer, Kaizala, Delve, Sway etc., apart from the more popular Word, Excel etc. The simplicity of Apple, Google, Amazon have played a major road in their getting into the 15 Sq Inch! 

BATTLE OF VALUATION 

Although Google had a long exceptionally good run in the stock prices since 2004, as compared to Microsoft, but after 2017 the trend of rise is going down and Microsoft is gaining (see charts below). Apple is the clear leader at US$1.97 Trillion followed by Microsoft and Amazon both at US$1.58 Trillion. Google has been left out in this battle, far behind at US$ 1.03 T. This reflects whatever has been said about the above battles. 

WHO WILL WIN THE WAR? 

It now seems that Microsoft is tightening the grip on the war. The battle of TikTok will give Microsoft a major ground on all other major battles.  

Google might have lost several grounds in between, but there is something which Microsoft always misses and loses – the power of simplicity; power of masses; focus of individual eyeball; ease of use.  

Free lunches do not last for long. No matter how much the space or power do the warriors occupy in the 15 sq inch, the winner will be one who can charge revenue for that occupation! They should learn from Apple, how to eat the pie! 

As Louis Pasteur said, Fortune favors the prepared, we have seen that happening with Zoom and WhatsApp, now let us see if Microsoft can finally TikTok to the finishing line! 

Ravi's Blog