War To Postpone A Collapse

Watching ... Putin today prompts the question: what explains the decision to invade Ukraine? Was it fear of democracy (i.e. the anti-oligarch reforms in Ukraine) or fear of demography? “Russia is not fighting for land,” says Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Volodymyr Zelensky. Could it be the Ukraine war is about fighting for people?

• The Spectator World, July 10, 2024

Now, I don't want to be that guy, but... I told you so!

A week or so after the war started, I wrote about Putin's desire to add the Russian minority in Ukraine to his empire as the casus belli. And I did so for the simple reason that Russian men drink so much more than they score that the country is facing a demographic disaster. The fact is, combined with the rise among Muslim minorities in Central Asia (which, for religious and cultural reasons, drink less and copulate more), the low birth rate of ethnic Russians will lead them to become a minority in their own country in only a few decades.

Thus, it didn't take a genius to see that Putin's reason for attacking Ukraine is demographic. But, this explanation never really caught on - until, as it seems, maybe now.

Why this is may seem like a mystery. Clearly, it can't be because the connection isn't apparent. And it can't be because Westerners and others hesitate to point out similarities between Putin's treatment of Ukraine and Hitler's ditto during World War II. Such comparisons have been plentiful since day one, and the Russian leader has (rightfully, if you ask me) even earned himself the nickname "Pitler." So it must be something else.

Two alternative circumstances are often presented as reasons for the war.

First, Russia wants control over Ukrainian assets and natural resources. However, only a few really believe this to be a main—or even a plausible—reason. And rightly so, because most of the resources, mechanical hardware, and infrastructure in the industrialized part of Ukraine are redundant and/or outdated.

Second, Putin felt forced to invade Ukraine to stop the country from "joining the West" by aspiring to memberships in the EU and NATO. And there's some proof to support this analysis. For example, Tucker Carlson's interview with Putin some months ago showed the Russian leader's obsession with history, his country's (lost) empire status, and old-fashioned geopolitical mindset. In fact, on the latter point, Putin does sound and act like a Hitler!

So, this second explanation may offer an explanation. However, judging from those chattering in the news, it's hardly the only reason. This explanation's apparent popularity (which for many falsely equals truthfulness) is namely inflated by scores of Western politicians and "experts" with secondary, sinister motifs to support it. In a word, they use this view to dress up their own anti-American and anti-Western sentiments as a respectable theory.

The real reason Russia invaded the eastern part of Ukraine is also the country's demographic crisis mentioned above. And the ultimate evidence for this is in the pudding, there for everyone to see. Per se notum: Most ethnic Russians in Ukraine are living in the easternmost provinces Putin for two years so desperately has tried to conquer. And since most of that region's industries, as said, are as valuable as rustbuckets, it's clearly the people (more than the land itself) Putin wants to annex.

Now, this conclusion doesn't help all those who have already been killed and wounded and the even bigger numbers who have had their lives and properties destroyed by the Russian war machine. But, knowing what the war is about is necessary for analyzing the situation correctly and preparing the political ground for a future peace deal...