War & Other Woes – Demographic Destiny In Kherson & Ukraine (The Russian Invasion of Ukraine #237)

Demographics are destiny. This is especially true in Eastern Europe nations where populations have plummeted since the fall of the Iron Curtain and collapse of the Soviet Union. Every one of the nations that once made up the Eastern Bloc have seen decreases in their population. Those nations that were newly born out of the communist rubble have also seen their populations decrease over the last thirty years. This has been due to a range of factors, including low birth rates, economic decline and mass emigration to the west. For those who could not leave, petty corruption and organized crime offered an alternative that many succumbed to and still do today. Ukraine was among the worst affected countries in what amounted to a slow burn humanitarian crisis.

From the time Ukraine became independent in 1991 right up until last year, Ukraine’s population fell by 10.8 million. To put this figure into perspective, consider that it is greater than the entire population of Hungary or almost twice the size of the combined populations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. The post-communist experience of Ukraine in some ways has been a success, but not from a demographic standpoint. Life expectancy in Ukraine during the 1990’s fell to levels not seen since the late 1950’s. The factors behind this soaring death rate included drug abuse that led to an AIDS epidemic, health woes from living in environmentally compromised industrial areas, and alcoholism. The upheaval caused by the economic transformation from communism to capitalism caused dislocation and social ills throughout Ukrainian society.

Home Wrecker – Upheaval At Home

Fortunately, as the economy began to stabilize, the death rate dropped, and life expectancy made a recovery. Between 1995 and 2015, average life expectancy in Ukraine rose by almost four years. Nonetheless, by 2013, the average Ukrainian male only lived to the age of 66, which is close to the retirement age in many western countries. Life was never easy in post-communist Ukraine, but no one could have imagined that the largest war in Europe since 1945 would begin with the Russian invasion in February. This has caused the demographic destiny of Ukraine to once again take a turn for the worse. The immediate effect of Russia’s invasion was a massive movement of Ukrainians into other parts of the country or to other European nations that offered safe havens far away from the fighting.

The effects of the Russian invasion in the near term are easy to see and will be difficult to reverse. Internal displacement rates have soared, depopulation of cities, towns and villages in eastern and southern Ukraine and a spike in the death rate to levels not seen since the Second World War have left the future of several regions uncertain. One of the cities currently experiencing massive demographic upheaval is Kherson. It was lucky when compared to other cities in southern Ukraine during the war’s initial months. There was a world of difference between the experiences of Mariupol and Kherson. Mariupol suffered months of urban warfare in a brutal siege that killed tens of thousands. Meanwhile in Kherson, while the Russian occupation slowly grew more onerous, there was no open warfare. The Russians took Kherson with hardly a fight and administered it with a comparatively lighter touch than other occupied areas. That began to change radically as the Ukrainians mounted their counteroffensive at the end of summer.

Leaving Kherson – The Cost of Relocation

As Ukrainian forces have crept ever closer to the city, the Russian authorities administering Kherson have been increasingly heavy handed in facilitating what amounts to an emptying out of civilians from the city. Estimates by Ukrainian officials are that 45% of the population has fled Kherson. That figure is likely to be much higher since the Russians have been urging civilians to leave as they cannot guarantee their safety. Of course, it was the Russian invasion rather than the Ukrainian counteroffensive that has made Kherson unsafe for civilians. The Russians would have everyone believe otherwise. Vladimir Putin has even gotten in on this act, lending his voice to the call for Kherson’s citizenry to leave the city immediately. ?

At the same time, Russian troop numbers around Kherson have soared. Intelligence estimates show that the Russians have increased their number of troops in the area nearly twofold to 40,000. This does not bode well for Kherson’s immediate future as there is the possibility of even greater demographic dislocation if the city becomes an urban war zone. This would also make reconstruction and repopulation more difficult. Even if the Ukrainians do retake Kherson with minimal impacts to its infrastructure, many of its citizens have been relocated to Crimea or into Russia. No one knows if they will ever be allowed to return. Those who assisted the Russian occupation authorities may not want to, while others may not want to face the prospect of rebuilding their lives in a place full of traumatic memories. The Kherson they once knew will be changed irreparably.

Running On Empty – Patterns of Resettlement

Much of eastern and southern Ukraine was already sparsely populated by European standards before the war. The emptying out of the vast steppe lands that cover most of the area will now be mirrored by depopulation in cities not far from the coast. This has already happened in Mariupol. The same thing is happening in Kherson on a less violent scale, though that could change in the coming weeks. One of Russia’s aims during this war has been the wholesale removal of Ukrainian citizens from these areas. It has not mattered if they are ethnic Ukrainians or Russians, Ukrainian or Russian speakers. Anyone who was a citizen of Ukraine is suspect until proven otherwise. The Russians have forcibly and illegally removed hundreds of thousands. In Kherson, they facilitated these removals through fear and coercion. The end goal it would seem is to leave the areas devoid of Ukrainian citizens. The problem for the Russians is that they cannot bring Russian citizens in to resettle cities such as Kherson because they may soon be forced to relinquish control. Ukraine is close to retaking Kherson, but the difficult work of repopulating the city will take years.