War and Media Fatigue
The nexus between conflict and media is a well-known topic of significant real-world importance. The growth of television and video in the mid-20th Century gave birth to the 24-hour news cycle, making media coverage of global conflicts a pivotal force for shaping public discourse and policy decisions at the state and international levels.
The impact of greater media access in the 1950s and 60s was immediate, with instances such as the embedding of camera crews with US troops during the Vietnam War acting as a key catalyst for anti-war sentiment and calls for peace.
Fast forward to 2024, and the dynamic role of media, and increasing use of social media, constitute critical outlets for global communities to track ongoing conflicts, providing a voice for journalists and individuals while offering a glimpse into the realities of war as it unfolds in real-time.
Media Fatigue and the CNN Effect
With media becoming a critical instrument for engaging with and shaping the public response to conflicts, there is also concern over reporting fatigue, and the ramifications of a shift in public interest to other topics carrying a real-world impact for those directly involved in conflicts. This concern is tied heavily to a concept known as the "CNN effect".
The namesake comes from CNN's introduction of live satellite news coverage to track events in near real-time during the late 80s, and is meant to describe the increasing sway of media over public sentiment and political activity in relation to conflicts. By enabling constant and instant news coverage on a particular conflict the news cycle "effectively demands political attention", as political figures look to demonstrate that they are aware of the situation and capable of responding.
Given the rapid shifting between media topics demanded by news agencies, combined with the ability of media coverage to shift the gravity of a
Looking to examine trends and media fatigue patterns of conflicts, my colleague Mats Varre Sand?y and I examined editorial news from top US sources discussing four separate conflicts. The 450,000 news articles (provided by Opoint included in this analysis cover several ongoing conflicts (Hamas-Israel, Ukraine-Russia, and the Syrian Civil War), and one historical example (the US invasion of Iraq) to understand a shift in coverage patterns with the maturing of online news in the 21st Century.
Through an LDA modelling approach, we tracked the volume of coverage and percentage of total coverage around the war in Ukraine across top English sources, classifying articles across three main topics - economy, war reports (articles discussing military developments), and politics.
News Coverage and Ongoing Conflicts
Assessing the volume of news coverage for the two most recent conflicts, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and fighting between Israel and Hamas, the number of articles peaks almost immediately after the conflict outbreak, followed by a consistent decline.
For the Russia-Ukraine dataset (Figure 2), a sharp dropoff in coverage occurred at the 3-month mark in June 2022. This aligns with the conflict entering an attritional phase during the summer of 2022, where both Russian and Ukrainian military units achieved minimal operational success. A small uptick is seen in autumn 2022, likely driven by a series of Ukrainian battlefield victories in the Southeast and the diplomatic efforts of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Europe and the US to galvanise financial support.
Similar patterns are detectable in the data for the ongoing violence between Israel and Hamas, with coverage rates showing a rapid decline between the 7 October attack on Israeli settlements and December 2023, and the decrease in Russia-Ukraine coverage.
Looking specifically at the topic lines, war reporting demonstrates the steepest loss of volume, with a fall of nearly 70%. As a result of this sharper decline, the proportion of stories centring on political topics increases throughout the period. The source level breakdown in Figure 4 highlights conservative-leaning US networks, including Fox News, as the drivers behind stories with political undertones, while CNN maintains the highest share of war reporting.
Going back to assess the topic breakdown for Russia-Ukraine coverage, a similar pattern of declining war reports and increasing political content is seen. This culminated in autumn 2023 when political discussions overtook war reports as the primary topic coverage (Figure 5). A shift that aligns with the waning appetite from US political leaders to provide additional military aid packages and weapons platforms, leaving a USD 60 billion aid deal due for a February vote in jeopardy.
Public sentiment seems to trend in the same direction, with 41% of respondents in a November 2023 Pew Research Center poll thinking US aid to Ukraine is "too much" compared with under 25% when the same question was asked in August 2022.
Looking at this coverage, broad trends indicate US news coverage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel-Hamas fighting is quite similar. The conflicts received a lot of media attention immediately following the outbreak of violence followed by a relatively quick decline. Simultaneously, the decrease in article volume also correlates with a shift in the topic of discussion, with far less war reporting and military updates in favour of more political discussions.
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US News Coverage of the War in Iraq
To draw parallels with the two ongoing conflicts above, Mats Varre Sand?y and I also looked at past 21st-century conflicts – the US war in Iraq and the Syrian Civil War – to see whether similar trends in news coverage persist.
Like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, coverage of the war in Iraq demonstrates a notable drop in coverage during the first months of the war, before levelling off. More specifically, the data shows an increase in the coverage of the war in the autumn of 2004 in connection with the Iraqi election and a major attack on the city of Fallujah. Since then, we see that the review has fallen slightly, falling until December 2011. We find a similar tendency as in the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, but also that individual events of great significance can put wars back on the media's agenda.
Looking at the news topic shifts during the war in Iraq, Figure 7 depicts a relatively steady and dominant interest in politics, remaining above 50% throughout the timeframe. Contrastingly, the volume of articles discussing military operations shows a more volatile pattern. This Economic coverage is notably low, rarely breaching the 10% mark, suggesting that economic issues are less prioritised or perhaps overshadowed by the more immediate political and war-related events.
Contrasting Data with the Syrian Civil War
Going against trends seen across the other three conflicts, the volume of news articles discussing the Syrian Civil War has remained consistent over a multi-year period. Originating out of the Arab Spring in 2011, the conflict has entered several unique phases. Most significant coverage-wise is the direct entrance of Russia into the conflict, providing military support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime. Given the diverse actors, including periods of heavy US airstrikes and the introduction of Iranian-backed forces, this is likely to affect the staying power of the Syrian Civil War when it comes to news coverage. By contrast, the entrenched nature of the other wars under assessment, particularly the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts, leads to static key developments and a loss of media attention.
Looking at the data, the initial coverage is heavily skewed towards war reports, almost touching 90%, which sharply contrasts with the other two topics. Over time, political coverage gained ground, increasing from around 20% to nearly matching war reports by 2015. This could reflect a shift in media focus from the immediacy of war to the broader political implications and developments.
Summing Up
Unpacking this small slice of data across these four conflicts confirms a frequent trend of media fatigue with global conflicts. While many other factors are at play, including the general trend of topic fatigue in news extending beyond conflict coverage alone, it is important to remain aware of this trend.
Some articles suggest most readers only ever read 60% of the way through an article itself (meaning many people have not gotten to read this sentence).
As data points increase, social media establishes a stronger foothold in day-to-day living and digital news content surges, it will be interesting to study and assess further shifts in coverage and content trends, including a focus on the ramifications for conflicts and their exposure to a global audience.
This article is not a comprehensive study or analysis of how media and conflict interact. Below are links to several excellent academic institutions and articles engaging with this subject:
Additionally, here are some other images from our research for you to view and follow Opoint , Infomedia Norge , Infomedia and Mats Varre Sand?y for more insights throughout 2024.