War on Kashmir: Four attacks in Four Days in Jummun & Kashmir and criticism of Modi's 'silence': 'Talk to Pakistan if violence has to stop.

An attack took place in Indian-administered Kashmir just an hour before Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony in the Indian capital New Delhi on Sunday evening.

Violence erupted in nearby areas after nine people were killed in a gun attack on a bus full of Hindu pilgrims in Jammu's Reasi district.

This is not the only such incident in recent times, but there have been four attacks on Indian security forces in four days in which two armed militants and a paramilitary personnel have been killed and several police and military personnel, including a civilian, have been injured.

According to the police, two militants were killed in Hiranagar area of Kathua, but the attackers managed to escape from other places.

These areas of Jammu have been considered relatively peaceful for two decades. However, after this sudden wave of violence, the Army and other security agencies across the Jammu region have announced a red alert and search operations are going on in large areas around the affected settlements.

In such a situation, the opposition is criticizing the silence on the recent attacks by Narendra Modi, who made aggressive statements before the elections, but unlike in the past, the new leadership is avoiding threats.

After the recent attacks, there has been no direct blame on Pakistan by the Indian leadership so far, but in the past, India has maintained that Pakistan is behind militancy in Kashmir, while Pakistan denies these allegations.

Fear of tension between India and Pakistan?

In the backdrop of the recent violence in Kathua, Reasi, Doda and Bhaderwah, some quarters have expressed apprehension that the death of pilgrims and the back-to-back attacks could increase the risk of tension between the two countries along the Line of Control.

On February 14, 2019, a suicide bomber rammed an explosives-laden car into a bus of India's Central Reserve Police Force on a highway in Letpora area of Pulwama, killing more than 40 paramilitary personnel. A week later, the Indian Air Force claimed to have destroyed terrorist hideouts by bombing Pakistan's Balakot area.

After the Balakot operation, Narendra Modi's popularity in India increased and he emerged as a powerful Prime Minister for the second time.

A retired Army officer in Jammu, who did not wish to be named, said, "It was not just the Pulwama incident that a war-like situation arose, but 22 years ago when dozens of soldiers, including their families, were killed in an armed attack on the Army's family quarters in Jammu's Kaluchak area. ‘

"After Pulwama, people's expectations have increased. Many believe that the Modi government will not tolerate terrorism, but will eradicate its roots. ‘

The then Indian Defence Minister Jaswant Singh wrote in his book 'A Call to Honor' about the Kaluchak incident of 2002, "The military tension between India and Pakistan had increased so much that we were very close to war. ‘

But the question is, can it happen this time? Security expert Lu Puri says, "We saw at the time of the Kaluchak attack and also at the time of Pulwama that there was an increase in military tension between the two countries. But the Modi government's response at this time will be very cautious, because Narendra Modi is in power with the help of allies and the Congress has now become a powerful opposition. All these people can question the results of past operations. ‘

Some quarters in Kashmir see the incident in the backdrop of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's statement during the election campaign.

He claimed that within three months of his third term in power, the Modi government would merge Pakistan-administered Kashmir with India.

"This desire has been created among the people, but I find it difficult because if the war breaks out, the purpose for which all this was being said will not be fulfilled," said the retired Army officer from Jammu. ‘

While most observers believe That Narendra Modi was citing Article 370 as the root cause of militancy in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir, further violence after its abrogation, especially in Jammu, has weakened this narrative.

"If you want to stop violence, talk to Pakistan.

Opposition leaders from Delhi to Srinagar have targeted the Modi government over the violent situation in Jammu.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi said, "Narendra Modi is busy taking greetings and not listening to the screams of the pilgrims who were killed in Kathua. ‘

"If there is a BJP government, why are those who are planning such attacks not being caught? ‘

Former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister and National Conference leader Farooq Abdullah said in a statement: "If violence has to stop, then talk to Pakistan. Violence will not end unless there is an understanding between India and Pakistan. ‘Expressing concern over the impact of violence on civilians and the deaths of innocent people, he said: "I hope that the dialogue with Pakistan is restored just as the government has engaged China." ‘

However, Jammu and Kashmir BJP president Ravinder Raina, in his quick reaction, regretted Farooq Abdullah's statement.

"Instead of condemning Pakistan, exposing it to the world by showing it a mirror, he is advocating dialogue, it is a pity," he said. ‘

Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Ajay Rai and the party's Maharashtra ally Uddhav Thackeray said in a statement, "Nothing has changed in Kashmir due to the removal of Article 370. Kashmir is burning, lives are being lost. Who is responsible for this? If Modi cannot stop terrorist attacks in Kashmir, he has no right to be the Prime Minister. Where are the people who were talking about Kashmir in the elections? ‘

Why are there attacks in Jammu?

Jammu's Rajouri and Poonch districts are located close to the Line of Control, while Reasi district, where Hindu pilgrims were killed in fresh attacks, also shares the mountain range with Rajouri.

In the past year alone, 24 soldiers, seven civilians and 28 armed militants have been killed in various attacks in the region.

A wave of violence erupted in Jammu's Rajouri and Poonch districts, which have been peaceful for over two decades, months after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019.

Security expert Lu Puri says, "After the tension with China, a large number of troops were withdrawn from the LoC and sent to Ladakh, but there are other factors. The army says there are only 25 terrorists active in the region, but then why is the army suffering more casualties?"

"These regions were tense before," says Lu Puri, author of a book on kashmir's armed insurgency, 'Militancy in Jammu and Kashmir: An Exposed Face'. Most of the militants did not speak Kashmiri, they had set up their base in the same region (Rajouri-Poonch). But to deal with this challenge, the governments of the time adopted a political strategy. ‘

"Looking at the geographical, cultural and linguistic aspects, most of Rajouri, Poonch and Reasi are actually extensions of Pakistan-administered Kashmir, the only difference is that there are a large number of Hindus and Sikhs on our side, most of whom came here in 1947. ‘

Mr Puri calls it a strategic mistake to look at Article 370 from a security angle because it (Article 370) has nothing to do with militancy. For decision-making, the political elite sitting on the chairs should see how the use of Kashmir in the country's politics affects national security. ‘

He added that merely having a military angle to the complex situation in Indian-administered Kashmir will not yield any results. "For this, local politics has to be facilitated and sensitive equality of society has to be maintained. ‘

Demand for postponement of assembly elections

However, former Indian Army Chief General VP Malik has said on an Indian TV channel that the government will have to tighten the security control in Jammu and Kashmir and postpone the assembly elections.

There has been no elected government in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir since 2018. The Lieutenant Governor and some officers are running the local administration under the direct supervision of Delhi.

In this regard, the Modi government announced several times that elections would be held "at an appropriate time", but later the Supreme Court of India directed the government in March to hold voting for the provincial assembly of Jammu and Kashmir by the end of September.

Reacting sharply to Malik's remarks, former Chief Minister of Indian-administered Kashmir Omar Abdullah termed any delay in the elections as "kneeling before militants".

Significantly, despite armed violence or killings, elections have been held in Kashmir. In the 1990s, when the then MP Mehbooba Mufti asked a question about the number of militants in Parliament, the then Home Ministry had said in a written reply that there were 6,000 armed militants active in Kashmir, and apart from Kashmir, violent incidents were also taking place in Jammu. But despite this, elections were held here.

A local journalist, who did not wish to be named, said: "Despite the violence, the Indian governments used to conduct elections by making elaborate security arrangements. Holding elections and people voting in them has been the government's key card against the narrative of armed violence. ‘

"If the elections are postponed again this time, the government will have to give a solid justification, and the opposition will not remain silent about it. ‘

What do Kashmiris themselves say about the government's claim of 'peace' in Indian-administered Kashmir?

"After the abrogation of Article 370 from Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir on August 5, 2019, an era of peace and prosperity has begun. The situation in the area is normal and daily strikes and stone pelting have completely ended. ‘

The Centre has filed a fresh affidavit in the Supreme Court in support of the abrogation of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir.

In this affidavit, the government has also claimed that in the last four years, the situation in Kashmir has not only improved a lot, but extremist activities have come down by 45 percent.

From August 2, a petition seeking the removal of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir will be heard daily, in which the court will decide whether the government's decision was in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution or not.

But earlier, the Ministry of Home Affairs had filed a 19-page affidavit in the Supreme Court stating through 40 points that the abolition of the special status given to the state in 2019 and dividing it into two Union Territories has benefited a lot and the situation has become calmer and 'normal'.

"What the government is calling peace is the silence of the people which has been intimidated."

From June to September last year, I spent three months in Kashmir as a reporter and one thing I saw, according to the government's claim, was that from downtown area of Srinagar to Lal Chowk, Shopian, Kulgam, Pulwama, many districts including South Kashmir did not see a strike, there was no announcement of closure of business.

A large number of tourists are seen on the streets of Srinagar and government figures also confirm that tourism has broken all records after the lockdown in Kashmir.

But whatever the situation, we tried to get to know from many Kashmiris how they view the claims made by the government in the affidavit.

"What the government is calling peace is the silence of the people, the silence that has been made out of intimidation," a man from Ganderbal district adjoining Srinagar told us on condition of anonymity. Anyone who indirectly criticizes the Lieutenant Governor's rule is immediately called to the police station. ‘

"If everything is normal, why is Mirwaiz Umar Farooq under house arrest? Why are there soldiers everywhere?"

"One of the main reasons why the strike and shops are not closed is that the Hurriyat office is locked," he says. Hurriyat leaders are either in jail today or are still under house arrest after so many years, the Hurriyat used to call for most of the strike but it has almost been called off. ‘

"If everything is normal, why is Mirwaiz Umar Farooq being kept under house arrest?" he asks. Why is there such a severe blockade of army personnel everywhere?"

"Many people still think we're held in captivity."

In an interview to the BBC in 2022, Jammu and Kashmir Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha had said that no separatist leader had been placed under house arrest, but the situation turned out to be different when the BBC tried to ascertain the truth of the claim.

Even today, Mirwaiz Umar Farooq was not allowed to leave the house and go to the mosque.

In September 2021, khurram Parvez, a prominent Kashmiri activist, was arrested by the NIA and charged with sections such as the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) 43(2)(b). Pervaiz has been in jail for nearly two-and-a-half years.

A 28-year-old youth living in downtown area of Srinagar says that the situation on the ground is not what the central government is trying to project.

"The situation in Kashmir can be described as normal when everyone thinks the same," he says. Many people still feel that we have been kept in captivity. There is unemployment. If you go to any road, there will be a large number of security forces. In the name of security, you are stopped, vehicles are stopped, ambulances are stopped. If the government calls it normal, it's okay. But for us, this is not a normal situation. ‘

The 42-year-old shopkeeper, who runs his shop at Regal Chowk, a densely populated area in Srinagar's market, believes that the atmosphere is calm, there are no strikes anymore, but it will not be right to link this environment with Article 370.

"We are happy that there is no strike now and other things are normal," he says. The credit should go to the government which created such an atmosphere. But all these things should not be linked to Article 370. Article 370 is the fundamental right of Kashmiris which has been taken away from us. ‘

A section in Kashmir certainly believes that corruption and rigging have come down under the Lieutenant Governor as compared to before.

A 70-year-old man living in Srinagar is happy that the employees are now bound for duty. Every employee is accountable. The practice of paying for work has almost stopped now.

The highest number of cases were registered in Jammu and Kashmir.

In what context should the government's claim of 'peace' be viewed? The reality is that in the last nearly four years, the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) has been used at a record level here.

Since 2019, there has been an increase in arrests of people under the UAPA and the Public Safety Act (PSA) in the Kashmir Valley.

In 2014, only 45 cases were registered in Kashmir under the UAPA, according to rti activist Venkatesh Naik's rti reply. But in 2019, 255 cases were registered under the UAPA.

From 2019 to August 2021, more than 2,300 people in Kashmir were slapped with the UAPA and 1,200 cases were registered under its provisions, according to the Jammu and Kashmir Police.

The National Crime Records Bureau's 2021 report said that Jammu and Kashmir has recorded the highest number of UAPA cases in the country.

Jammu and Kashmir also witnessed the highest number of riots among all union territories. In 2021, 751 cases of rioting were registered here.

It is difficult for suspects who are once trapped to come out of jail

Now let's talk about PSA. Compared to 2019, PSA cases have decreased. In 2019, there were 699 cases of PSA, but in 2020 it came down to 160. In 2021, 95 cases were registered.

Many lawyers fighting human rights cases in Kashmir say that since 2019, it has become common practice that those who are serving sentences under the PSA Act, as soon as their case is quashed by the High Court, they are charged with the UAPA and they remain in jail.

In this way, it becomes difficult for the accused who are once trapped to come out of jail. Security agencies have started using PSA and UAPA together in Kashmir.

The Public Safety Act (PSA) was introduced by Sheikh Abdullah's government in 1978. It was brought against timber smugglers, but when extremism increased in Kashmir in the 90s, the law was used against those involved in 'anti-national' activities.

Under the PSA, an accused can be jailed for up to two years without trial.

Also, in the case of UAPA, any accused can be kept in jail without trial for years. The provisions of the UAPA are so complex that the chances of the accused getting bail are almost negligible.

A resident of Ganderbal says, "People are so afraid of PSA and UAPA that if you ask them their opinion, they hesitate to say anything. The homes of journalists and human rights lawyers are raided, even though they have not filed a case, they are afraid to write and speak against the administration. In such a situation, tell us what the common people will protest.

On The Second Anniversary Of The Abolition Of 370 On August 5, 2021, Pictures Of Lal Chowk And Polo View Market In Kashmir Went Viral.

On that day, when local shopkeepers in Kashmir closed their shops in protest against the abrogation of Article 370, security agencies forced many shopkeepers to open their s

ops.

On August 5, 2022, I was at a hotel in Srinagar, when I woke up that day, the internet was not working despite having a postpaid connection on my phone. When I spoke to my service provider, I came to know that internet service has been suspended in the area on the orders of the government. The internet on my phone was shut down till 10 pm.

Talking about investment, the first foreign investment in Kashmir came in March this year. The investment is from Dubai-based Emaar Group, which is building a $60 million shopping complex in Srinagar.

The government has often issued statements that gulf countries have promised or proposed investment in Kashmir, although all other investment proposals other than this investment of the Emaar Group are currently on paper.

According to official data, an investment of Rs 66,000 crore has been proposed in Jammu and Kashmir by March this year.

A section in Kashmir believes that the situation on the ground has changed, but they say that this situation could have changed without the removal of Article 370 by the government.

A 35-year-old woman living in Srinagar believes that "the situation in Kashmir has returned to normal, but it would have been the same if Article 370 had not been removed." Tensions that usually existed in the situation in Kashmir have subsided. ‘

"We did not step out of the house, the news of clashes did not come out, to some extent such a situation was controlled but for this our identity has been taken away. ‘

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