Will the war in Gaza-Israel escalate?
Jose Carlos Barroso Mendez- MBA-CPSM
Experienced Manager-Mining Advisor
October 31st, 2023
GAZA-ISRAEL, WILL THE WAR ESCALATE?
As the ground invasion of Gaza has begun, this is now the big question.
Will other actors, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran, Turkey, US, Russia,China and others get involved?
Hezbollah
Hezbollah seems adamant to take decisive actions, more sporadic military actions have been seen rather than a full scale attack. They know that this would trigger as swift and deadly response to their forces, supposedly to be in the 50.000 well-armed and trained combatants. Political pressure in Lebanon and an economic crisis seem to be deterring actions, but on the other hand seems they cannot lose face as Hamas gets wiped out.
Iran/Egypt
Iran has tried to wage an oil embargo against Israel but it has not been successful. For now, they have been making several announcements for a cease fire war, but no decisive action. The only real threat would be the blockade of the Ormuz Trait, where 30% of the world′s oil flows, and of course economic support to Hamas and Hezbollah. No military actions seem to be foreseen for now.
Egypt also can close the Suez Canal as an additional form of economic pressure.
Oil prices have gone down, but this is because Venezuela ramped up its production (at US request) and also more supply from Russia/Iran has happened.
US
The US has deployed two carrier groups to the region, and supplied Israel with enormous quantities of military supplies, but it does not seem to grasp how enraged the Arab World as a whole is becoming with the attacks on Gaza and the civilian casualties that are been caused.
Biden and its advisors seem to be living in the 1970’s era or in the Twilight Zone (popular Tv show from the 70s). It is a very different scenario now.
Arab countries before the war were pretty distant apart, looking for their best interests but the casualties caused in this war have united them, one of Hamas goals with the attack in October 7th. (Sunni, Shiite, Iran and others).
?Also, the question remains on how high is the US disposition to become directly involved in the war. It has announced that it will commit troops on the ground, but once they do that they become targets and potential casualties.
US public opinion, whilst supporting the economic aid up to a point, will probably not support direct military involvement. There are many more pressuring issues in the US as it is now, and the previous war in Iraq/Afghanistan is pretty fresh in many minds. Also the expense in foreign aid is becoming an issue, having been recently approved $us. 60 billion for Military Aid for Ukraine, and $us. 40 billion for Israel. ?US Treasury and other bonds here we come to finance the expense.
But as it has been noted by many, the lobby that military industries perform in Congress is extremely effective and war of course is good business for them, and banks thorough loans.
Israel
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It is evident that the air strikes and other related attacks in Gaza are surgical, or precision guided attacks, will cause civilian losses or collateral damage. It would not be military wise to level urban areas, because this just makes the defense for Hamas more easy (tanks and other vehicles can no longer maneuver) and it becomes ideal for snipers and booby traps.
We have the battle of Stalingrad/Russia in WW2 as a classic remainder. The German Air Force (Luftwaffe) leveled Stalingrad and the 6th Army, one of the best equipped in the German Army was entangled in the city’s ruins, encircled and destroyed.
The question is that militarily it is impossible to destroy Hamas and free the hostages, that are around 230. It is either one or the other. This could be one of the causes that Israel is not using full scale operations, but special tactical ones.
Whilst the attack on Gaza is condemned by many around the world, it comes to mind that any country that holds civilian hostages, including women and children, is not following international laws for war. But, interestingly, Hamas just gives the perfect excuse for Israel attacks and evidently does not care much for civilian Palestinian casualties. The PR war has been lost already.
It is evident that Hamas and its some 450 kms. of tunnels in Gaza are a big threat, stored rockets and guerrillas, to Israel, but some type of treaty can be agreed in order to disarm Hamas and destroy the tunnels, but of course they won’t agree for that.
Russia/China/Turkey
They support a cease fire because simply it is in their best interest. Russia is battling in Ukraine and China worries about disruptions in the oil supply and other imports that their economy need. So they will keep pressuring for a cease-fire and wait and see if others get involved (Iran, Turkey for example)
Europe
There is a lot of division amongst supporters of Israel and, like Russia and China it is in their best interest to have a cease fire.
?Conclusion
The best for all would be a cease-fire. An escalation, would be extremely negative for the region. Seems like a no-win contest. The only ones to gain are the military industry.
There are already more than 8.000 Palestinian civilians killed, and over 1.400 Israelis killed, but Israel wants to follow thorough and seems that no one can stop them.
The US either won’t or can’t do much, not clear why to most observers. Lack of international experience and knowledge of the new reality in the Middle East could be one.
?As some say maybe Israel needs to be saved from itself.
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Jose Barroso *([email protected]) is an Economist and Analyst