War Is Coming. You ready?

This is not a metaphor. Real war. In the nonprofit arts sector, it will force you to act.

Before we talk about war, death, destruction, and irrelevance, let’s talk about my new book, because I’ve always been a fan of theater of the absurd.

My new book is now available everywhere, even as an eBook. And if it’s not, please let me know.

Scene Change: Why Today's Nonprofit Arts Organizations Have to Stop Producing Art and Start Producing Impact is now on the shelves, be they internet shelves or real ones, in the UK and the US. Maybe even Australia by now. If your bookstore isn't carrying it (yet), please let them know that you want a copy and that they should stock up for the thousands more behind you. Okay, hundreds. Okay, dozens. Just give them this ISBN: 978–1–80 341–446–1. If it's still not listed, contact me directly at [email protected].

If you teach an arts management program, work at an arts school, or want to buy a bulk purchase (25 or more) for your board of directors and staff, just let me know and I'll get you a substantial discount. Send an email to [email protected].

Here's the cover:

And now, this week’s column.

The United States will be fighting a war within the next 6 years. It’s inevitable. It’s happened before.

Whether the war is a “civil” one or one against a foreign power is irrelevant. Either way, it’s a war between our side and their side, whoever us and them happen to be.

This isn’t just crazy rhetoric. Nor is it some scare tactic, a “wake-up call,” a hallucination, nor do I believe I have any special powers. I detest so-called psychics, seers, mediums, snake oil salesmen, and fraudulent bogeymen who use others’ belief systems to gain power and cash.

I’ve been reading the powerful, logical, and relatively frightening follow-up to the late William Strauss and Neil Howe’s bestseller The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny. The new book, The Fourth Turning Is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us about How and When This Crisis Will End, written by Howe, looks at the current cycle of history and predicts (along with several of his colleagues in history, sociology, and politics) what points of destiny have to happen to move beyond the current cycle of history tells us.

If you haven’t read the first book yet, do so. It will help you understand the cycles of history and how nothing is really as unprecedented as the media or your conspiracy theorist brother-in-law would have you believe. If you’re in the nonprofit arts business and think the art you produce is not subject to these cycles, think again.

All signs point to war. Everything that has led up to every “war to end all wars” is happening right now. Worldwide populism movements choosing narcissistic, autocratic leadership. Eliminating democratic principles in lieu of safety. Choosing up sides. Mistrust of elections. Hatred of government. Groups determining who is “us” and who is “them.” Fear, peddled 24 hours a day on various media, both legitimate and phony. The belief in lies and “truthiness.” All this has happened before – just before all-out war. And, according to Howe (and his partner, Strauss), it happens in 80- to 90-year cycles. We’re due, sometime between now and 2030.

About 80 years after the American Revolution (which was technically a simultaneous civil war and a war against a foreign power) came the US Civil War. About 80 years after that came World War II. 2025 will mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Sometime soon, a whole bunch of countries will team up to fight a whole bunch of other countries. Each will believe they’re the good guys. The American society will either coalesce (despite its differences) or collapse (because of its differences) and a new world order will happen in the next cycle. Howe’s research shows that this kind of global war cycle has been going on since at least the 15th century.

The catalyst for this war will take everyone by surprise. It always does.

If the war is internal, it will not mimic the Civil War of about eight score ago because we are no longer an agrarian economy dependent on land. The United States is a hodgepodge of sectarian economies in most of its regions. The only thing changing is the demographic makeup of the people. And while the original Puritans who eventually killed all in their path to a privileged “freedom” (of their own design), today there is no such majority. And this kind of war will likely be waged between those who, in the name of all that is holy, want to return to the time when their society was dominant, even on the world stage (“Make America Great Again”) and those who, in the name of all that is holy, want to move forward to a time when their society is dominant (“Diversity! Equity! Inclusion!” – not so different from “Liberté! égalité! fraternité!” from the French Revolution, which was another war among these cycles).

Paraphrasing Howe, we have the “Flight 93 Take-Over-The-Cockpit heroes” versus the “The-US-Is-One-President-Away-From-Becoming-A-Fascist-Dictatorship heroes.” One person’s insurrectionist is another’s freedom fighter.

Peaceful secession is an unlikely scenario. Any kind of secession will be brutal, because there are no natural segregations among the state borders anymore. Plus, there are issues of standing armies, navies, air forces, national parks, national monuments, nuclear warheads, space paraphernalia, and which side has all the guns – well, you get the problems. Canada could annex the US west coast, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the New England states, I suppose, but that seems unlikely. Maybe Mexico would trade Baja California to this new version of Canada for Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and a player to be named later.

The likelier scenario is a war against a foreign power. The reason is culture. At the current escalating rate, it would not be a surprise if regional killing devolved into a global religious war where death is not a deterrent to attack.

To be fair, it should be noted that all of these wars and cycles have been subject to a principally White, European (or Euro-adjacent) prism. But, because these wars have been so deadly to millions of people regardless of their ethnicity, background, or culture, the cycles affect everyone.

So, all signs point to war.

I’m going to make a wild guess that if you’re in America and running a nonprofit arts organization, you are too young to have been running one during World War II. Assuming that’s the case, you’re about to engage in the most charitable work you’ve ever done.

Unlike the oil wars of the early 90s or even the wars after the September 11, 2001 attacks, you will not be asked to “shop or the terrorists win.” Your job will not be to pretend that the war isn’t happening. Your arts organization will not exist just to merely reflect the world’s issues.

Nonprofit arts organizations have had a chance to deal with a national emergency during the COVID years. Sadly except for a few forward-thinking leaders who turned their costume shops into mask-making factories and the like, they failed. Instead, they begged for money, clunkily streamed their own art to video (we used to call that “television”), and yelled to the heavens how “essential” they were. The public, as we’ve discussed, largely voted not to continue support, which is why government entities are stepping up support in tiny ways, irrespective of any referenda of support, even imposing regressive sales taxes which disproportionately harm the poor.

Regardless, you have another chance to make your organization as essential as your PR claims them to be. What do you plan to do? If you don’t have an answer soon, you won’t have to worry about sustainability, order, or viability anymore. You’ll just close.

I guess, in a way, that’s an answer.

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? 2024 by Alan Harrison, licensed under CC BY-NC 4.0.