War is NOT the Answer!!!

COVID 19 concerns

 In a previous YouTube video, I expressed concern that the US authorities were not being forthright with us. To fully understand the perspective presented here, I urge you to view the previous presentation on this subject.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRosUsgDlHs&feature=youtu.be

I want to share with you why I believe that approaching this pandemic as if we were at war is a mistake. Declaring war on a virus makes about as much sense as closing fast food restaurants or banning soft drinks because people have died from diabetes or heart disease. On a lighter note, if we want to have a war we should take lessons from the virus. More than 95% of its victims don’t die. The virus just borrows the cellular machinery of its host to replicate its progeny. Lots of little baby viruses are created and the virus will have lived out it’s a life’s mission with very few casualties. Only a small percentage of the most compromised will die. If we believe the numbers and I don’t, but reportedly 1.3 million Americans have been victims of this virus That is approximately 1/3 third of 1% of the population. According to multiple agencies- approaching five out of eight Americans are overweight or are obese why don’t we declare war in the fast food industry on the donuts Industry or the soft drink manufacturers. They are literally killing hundreds of thousands of people every year. Being an obese Black male approaching 65 years of age; I possess lots of risk factors and I am at increased risk for death if I get this virus. However, I am much more likely to die from a lifetime of fast food and fried chicken and not to mention Mac and cheese, coconut and red velvet cake. But I don’t want to declare war on all the wonderful people who served me these delicious and deadly treats. 

Back to the virus:

This is a tragedy. This is a natural disaster. This is a global disaster. And we should think of it accordingly. 

Time has shown that we were not given accurate estimates of the magnitude of the epidemic by the Chinese authorities, before it became a pandemic. Similarly, our US authorities apparently were equally less than forthright with the information that was initially disseminated. It is suspected and justifiably alleged that insidious profit motivation resulted in delays in facilitating testing for COVID-19 AKA- the coronavirus. It appears that an initial intent to monopolize testing for the coronavirus backfired. Those who were seeking to profit from the testing delayed the availability of testing and have exacerbated the problem. More people died as a result of these delays that had the sole intent of generating profit. 

Recently, some of our leaders have launched a smear campaign against the Chinese. It is a reasonable argument that the Chinese authorities should have some culpability for the magnitude of this pandemic. Indeed, I believe it has been proven that the Chinese authorities were not completely open and honest with us. But truthfully, the Chinese authorities did not do anything that US leaders have not also done and in some sense they continue to do.

Consider the following: China is a much more populated nation than the US. Several Chinese cities, not unlike NY City are very densely populated. Yet, even with the questionable numbers available to us, fewer people have died in China than the US. Graphic illustrations from the CDC show that the Chinese have flattened their curve.  As of May 2, 2020 the curve in this country may not really be getting flatter yet. According to CNN as of May 25, 2020 as many as 18 states are still experiencing increased numbers of cases. The Chinese have had a couple of months head start in their research into this virus and their clinical experience with this virus. Moreover, they have extensive relevant experience dealing with the first SARS epidemic, which was caused by a similar virus. We should be collaborating with them more and learning from them and blaming them less as we try to manage this pandemic.

Independent sources verify that the US, Spain, Italy, France and Germany- all have more confirmed deaths than China. Genetic mapping of the virus reveals that the infections in New York mostly came from Italy, while everyone was focused on China.  

 Based on these points my message is that finger pointing and blaming the Chinese is inappropriate... It is equally inappropriate to constantly bash the President. We must respect the office even if we don’t like the man. He does more than enough to embarrass himself. The press should not be provoking him. Embarrassing him embarrasses all of us on the world stage. Like it or not he is everybody’s president. Let us just focus on the facts and what we all need to do to decrease the magnitude of the problem and spend less time highlighting how uninformed our President is.

 Most recently, the thing that annoys me most- is the same politicians -Federal, State and local- now want to take credit for the testing being performed. They brag about a million tests being done per day. The truth is the progress being made is a result of allowing the private sector to bring in testing from China and elsewhere; in some situations in spite of the government. The White house staff, apparently to the chagrin of the President – appropriately- is tested multiple times per week for COVID-19.  

Last week, on MSNBC, Dr. Leana Wen a public health expert from George Washington University, estimated that to return to something close to normal we need to be testing 20 million people per week in this country. The White House staff gets tested multiple times per week. This may not be practical for all of society, but some degree of periodic testing: of people who share classrooms; or people who sit next to each other in church; or for most of us who want to return to work as normal- some degree of periodic testing -is a reasonable and necessary idea. The experts will help us figure out at what intervals we need to do this repeated testing. What is clear is that a single test-whether positive or negative- will not be enough to continuously keep us safe if we are to return to normal before a vaccine is available. Realistically, there will not be a vaccine by the end of the year at least not available to the masses. Fatuously optimistic estimates about when we will have a vaccine may cause more people to die. That is if politicians make policy decisions based on the assumption that a vaccine is imminent- people will die. A regimen based on frequent repeated testing and some form of better treatment for the virus is more likely to allow us to get close to normal sooner than waiting on a vaccine.

 It is no secret that the PPE’s and most of our medical supplies we use every day come from China and other places our leaders want to demonize. It is unintelligent to attack the people who provide the supplies and medications we need to serve our patients. It is unintelligent to attack the people who manufacture the PPE for people caring for our patients at this time. Imagine, if you are viewing this recording on a computer or a cell phone or a tablet, your device was probably made in China. Certainly, components of your device came from China. If the Chinese respond in the ways that we have responded then Walmart would have to close down. There will be no more iPhones, android devices nor TV’s. Fortunately, whether we like it or not-the Chinese are too smart to take our bluster seriously. 

 Yes, we need to be more self-sufficient and yes, we need to bring jobs back to the US. But it is stupid to be hostile towards the sources of our very lifestyle before we accomplish bringing these industries back home.

 Reliable information indicates that the WHO offered US authorities available test methodology which was rejected by our leaders in January - resulting in unacceptable delays in testing our population. Hopefully this kind of political interference will not delay our people getting proper treatment or possibly a vaccine.

 Reliable first and secondhand information from patients, friends and colleagues on the front lines verifies that a majority of patients presenting to local Emergency Departments even with symptoms compatible with Covid -19- are not even tested even as of the early days in May 2020. Thus, the ongoing deception, i.e. the incessant bombardment with numbers everyday is nothing short of a scam. At best these numbers are guesstimates. At worst they are merely the figment of somebody’s imagination. The implicit intent is obviously to misrepresent the magnitude of the problem one way or the other. It is not convenient to hide the bodies of those who die, so I thought the death count probably may be reasonably accurate. However, last week- before a congressional committee- Doctor Anthony Fauci at least - believes that even the death counts are low. They cannot hide the bodies but I guess they can pretend people died from something else. Over 7 weeks ago, during the daily coronavirus pandemic update by the president and his taskforce, as of April 4, 2020 - 8175 people had died with 301902 cases documented. This corresponds to 2.7% case fatality rate. Not so coincidentally, for several nights over the next couple of weeks, the case fatality rate remained very close to 3%. Without any proof I assumed that they were just making up the denominator to justify the numerator. Lately however, In recent weeks these not so believable numbers have crept up to a 5% case fatality rate based on verifiable deaths and verifiable positive test results. Now, less than 7 weeks later- the total cases have reached 1.4 million infected and the deaths are more than 90 thousand. According to the CDC, as of April 4 the most recent numbers I can find as many as 62,000 people may have died from influenza On a different website the same CDC indicates the 76,000 people have died from pneumonia. This site reports 110,000 people have died from pneumonia or influenza or COVID 19. They only attribute 51,495 of these deaths to covid 19 as of May 12, 2020. I can share the references if interested and you can scrutinize the data for yourself.

 I have reached a point of not to believing any of these numbers. However, the same numbers can be useful in telling a story from a different point of view. What it is true is that there’re a lot more than the 1.4 million people reported today who may have actually had this condition. There are also probably more than the 90 thousand who have died. The good news is we are only looking at less than one half of-one percent of the population infected at a smaller fraction of a percent having died. But who believes these numbers. 

My recommendation is to take all these numbers with a grain of salt. Don’t listen to more than an hour or so of TV news each night. Whether you listen to one channel where they repeatedly bash our president or if you listen to another channel where they cover-up his mistakes and rationalize his errors- neither perspective should be viewed as gospel. They are in the business of generating ratings and selling advertising, as well as electing or re-electing politicians- unfortunately at our expense. Continuously listening to bogus numbers or political distortions, increases anxiety and fear and does little to solve the problem. The anxiety and fear and the economic ramifications of how this pandemic has been handled by the authorities will kill more people than the virus. In five months, they say 1.4 million people have had this infection documented. 3 million to 5 million people every week are losing their jobs. In a six week Ending early May, at least 30 million people became unemployed in the US. We all know this number is low because it only reflects people who have actually filed for unemployment. Many people who are most hurt by this quarantine are not even able to file an unemployment claim.

 Ramifications of businesses that will never open again and relationships that will never heal- like divorce, suicide as well as alcohol and other drug abuse – These consequences will no doubt cause the demise possibly of more people than this virus.

 No one is counting the people who are dying at home from heart attacks etc. because they are afraid to go to an emergency room. It is understandable that they don’t want to get the virus. But their lives could be saved at the hospital. No one is counting the marriages that are breaking up because of the financial stress. No one is counting the single parents who can’t go back to work because their kids can’t go back to school.

 Human beings are social animals. We have evolved to live together in groups, work together in organized teams and families and by nature we form communities. Social distancing is a difficult behavior for us to adapt to for the long term. At some point we must get on with our lives. Well documented peer-reviewed studies show that loneliness, isolation and ostracism can actually be associated with health problems like heart disease drug abuse and various psychiatric diagnoses. The influence of social relationships has as much impact on the risk of mortality as Cigarette smoking or alcohol-let alone a virus.

 Therefore, we must get on with our lives but we can’t be stupid about it. My hope is that if a vaccine is developed somewhere other than here in the United States we will not see the same corruption and political indifference and interference that we have experienced with the delay and making diagnostic testing available to our citizens. There are many scientists and clinical researchers capable of contributing to this effort that may not have political or economic ties to and NIH the FDA, the CDC or the Republican Party or the Democratic party for that matter. Hopefully our leaders will have learned from this experience that we deserve to receive help from where ever it becomes available. Clinicians and scientists in other countries may develop information regarding treatment that can save lives in the United States.

 In my next rendition in this series, I will emphasize what we all can and should be doing to address this problem but for now:

 In summary, this is NOT a WAR. This is a natural disaster. This is a global disaster. The virus does not have an nationality. It does not have an army. Yet, like heart disease cancer and many other conditions- it has killed more people than died in many wars. The virus is an equal opportunity infecter. It can kill potentially any and every one. The good news is more than 95% of people who get this infection will not die. Nevertheless, we cannot defeat a virus like we would another country or tribe in a war. The virus does not recognize race creed or national borders. It does not respect any political party. I say end the tribalism. View this disaster the same way as we would a hurricane, an earthquake or a Volcanic eruption. Like all natural disasters, we must come together and help each other, especially the most vulnerable amongst us.

 We must be reminded that we are THE UNITED States of America. Not the Divided states of America. Moreover, we Americans all are citizens of one planet earth. An outbreak anywhere has the potential to be an outbreak everywhere. Let us change our thinking and posture and our politics. It does not help to blame the Chinese nor does it help to blame the president. If the president doesn’t realize it himself, he has no control over these events. Bashing him or blaming him or anybody else serves no useful purpose. It is not constructive or productive to in anyway make this an “Us vs. Them”

A video version of this piece is available for sharing at:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcQ7Yy_Ljd8

References:

1.    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20668659

2.    https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1745691614568352

3.    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

4.    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

5.     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcQ7Yy_Ljd8