Waking up alone

An offensive by the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham needed less than two weeks to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, who, on December 8, stunned much of his country and the outside world by fleeing Damascus for Russia. Assad’s family had ruled Syria since 1971, and Assad himself had withstood 13 years of civil war—with the help of Russia and Iran—before the end.

Now, his fall will transform more than his country. Syria has been a critical part of the so-called Axis of Resistance, the alliance formed by Iran to counter what it casts as the dominance of the Middle East by the U.S. and Israel. Syria was the only other state actor in this alliance; the other members are militias like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, the Houthis in Yemen, and various groups in Iraq. And for decades, Assad’s Syria served as a major transit route for weapons and money from Iran to Hezbollah. In the war that began with Hamas’s attack on Israel in October 2023, however, Israel has battered both Hezbollah and Hamas, killing a lot of both groups’ leaders—and now Assad is gone, too.

So where does his defeat leave Iran?

Vali Nasr is a professor of Middle East studies and international affairs at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. Nasr says the end of Assad means the end of the Axis. But the bigger threat to Iran might be internal. Within the country, the Axis’s disintegration has driven a number of political factions to openly criticize the leadership in Tehran: Moderates say the regime’s strategy and prolific spending on the Axis were huge mistakes; many military officers say the leadership is to blame for its defeat; and conservatives say the leadership should be pursuing nuclear weapons or otherwise making a show of military force to demonstrate the country’s enduring power. Meanwhile, there’s still extensive public resentment of the regime carrying over from the nationwide protests in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody and the chronic repression of women it represented—along with an ever-worsening economy …

From Vali Nasr at The Signal:

• “During the first year of the current war, the Axis looked ascendant against Israel. But then Israel defeated Hezbollah and turned the tide. It was a defeat in military intelligence and on the battlefield. Syria was just a collapse, and it was surprisingly fast. I don’t know anyone who expected Assad to fall in 11 days.”
• “The most important thing Iran has lost: any fear in Israel about Iranian retaliation on its borders. Assad is gone, Hezbollah is gone, and Hamas is gone.”
• “The fundamental issue in the Middle East, I would say, isn’t Iran; the fundamental issues are the Palestinian question and broken states. And in my opinion, no one’s addressing these problems a constructive way at the moment. With or without Iran’s influence, these issues won’t go away.”

For the full interview, head to The Signal.

Where does the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad leave Iran? Vali Nasr on the swift and unexpected transformation of power in the Middle East.

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