Wake-up Call

The recent mega-terror attack in Israel, where nearly 2,500 terrorists infiltrated the southern border with Gaza and entered Israeli cities, towns, and kibbutzim, serves as a stark wake-up call. This incident not only represents the biggest security failure in Israel's history but also sends a clear message to countries worldwide that are striving for peace and security.

As part of my work, I conducted an in-depth analysis of materials related to this attack, including perspectives from the victims, survivors, and content shared by Hamas terrorists through live broadcasts on social media. Some of the attackers even mounted GoPro cameras on themselves to document the violence and shared these recordings with Hamas leadership in Gaza for command-and-control purposes, as well as using them as propaganda materials.

My examination of these materials unveiled hundreds of testimonies, revealing a level of cruelty that surpassed even that of Daesh (ISIS). The extent and magnitude of their brutality crossed a threshold previously unseen.

It's worth remembering the proverb that says, "Prophecy is given to fools." This article does not aim to predict the future but rather to explore how we can challenge our perspectives to enhance preparedness on both strategic and tactical levels for countries, security forces, and security personnel. This exploration draws lessons from the past, such as extreme events like the 9/11 attacks and the rise of the terrorist organization Daesh (ISIS)., which injected new life into global terrorism and profoundly reshaped how the world approaches counterterrorism. If I had approached you 20 years ago and described an extreme scenario in which a terrorist organization would control territory larger than Belgium for over two years, many would have considered it visionary.

In the aftermath of this mega-terror attack, we should prepare for an increase in the global terrorism threat level and potential unrest, which may lead to the following scenarios:

• The emergence of new terrorist tactics and methods. ?
• An escalation in cruelty and brutality in terror attacks, with a focus on civilian targets.
• An uptick in radicalization within specific communities, resulting in local tensions.
• An increase in singular terrorism attacks carried out by homegrown terrorists.
• Attempts at terrorist acts similar to the method used in the 7/10 attacks.
• The global spread of mass demonstrations characterized by extreme violence, pogroms, attacks on symbolic targets, and efforts to seize strategic and public locations.
• Armed and unarmed Mass raids. ?

Here, I will outline the reasons for my assessment that might offer you a different perspective and an opportunity to evaluate your preparedness:

1.?????? Terror glands - After every significant terrorist attack in the world, terrorist glands expand. This is manifested in the sense that we observe an escalation in the level of terrorism due to the motivation and spirit of unity among militants. The terrorist attack provides motivation and inspiration for other terrorists to carry out attacks in the areas where they are located.

2.?????? Imitation - If you've encountered materials disseminated by terrorist organizations in the public domain, materials that align with their ideology, you may have noticed that these terrorist groups share extreme propaganda content, along with accounts of their successful attacks using these resources. They share insights, operational methods, and innovative ideas for executing attacks, and potential targets, and even provide detailed guides outlining step-by-step instructions for carrying out assaults in various scenarios. One of the underlying motivations for this sharing is to inspire and motivate their audience. If a specific terrorist attack has succeeded in one location, why not replicate the same tactics and strategies in different areas around the world? For example, the terrorist attack in Paris in 2015, which involved simultaneous assaults on multiple targets, mirrors a modus operandi similar to the terrorist attack that occurred in Mumbai in November 2008.

3.?????? Test of courage- The 7/10 attack shattered the barrier of resilience and rational thinking among extremists worldwide. It demonstrated to jihadists across the globe that if assailants armed with basic combat means can carry out a large-scale raid against one of the world's most powerful nations in military, security, and intelligence terms, then anyone can replicate the same modus operandi against other states perceived as strong. In other words, the opponent's deterrence factor, which was a significant consideration in the terrorist calculations, diminishes in importance. The terrorist's unrestrained imagination to create new threats, employ new methods, and employ various tactics presents an opportunity for the assailant to carry out an attack.

4.?????? Permanent concept - As part of our preparedness, whether in security organizations or private enterprises, we conduct situational assessments based on scenarios in which we examine various threats. Subsequently, we derive our strategies for dealing with these threats from these assessments. The challenge lies in the fact that threat definitions are a result of our worldview, dissecting the threat spectrum based on an intelligence-driven and perceptual foundation. The pertinent question is whether anyone, as part of the threat spectrum, detailed the extreme scenario of a terrorist attack using mass raid tactics, as occurred in the 7/10 attack. The honest answer is that no one thought or even imagined such an extreme scenario. Even in Hollywood's most creative realms, it would be difficult to conceive a similar scenario. This important point directly implies our readiness for a similar scenario; in other words, if we are honest with ourselves, we are not prepared mentally and operationally for similar scenarios.

5.?????? Western perception that limits the fight against terrorism - One of the main problems in many countries worldwide is a lack of understanding of who the enemy is, or even recognizing what the problem truly is. The reason for this is that terrorism exploits Western liberal tools, whether it's our laws or our mindset, against us. It's crucial to comprehend that we and they do not speak the same “language”. To understand what we are contending with, we need to converse in their “language”, and, more importantly, to listen to what they are saying, rather than dismissing their messages. Our rationale is different, grounded in Western liberal thinking that promotes tolerance and equality.

6.?????? Political correctness - One of the challenges facing Western societies is political correctness. The definition characterizes political correctness as a new form of discourse that avoids using seemingly offensive expressions that might harm the feelings of a specific public who may be disadvantaged based on nationality, ethnicity, religion, disability, or gender. In essence, it's a term that highlights the differences between various societies, which may be hurtful to them. Political correctness sometimes prevents us from asking difficult questions and addressing the issues, especially in some intellectual and media circles that impose their views on the majority and mock anyone who deviates from them. Unfortunately, in the name of political correctness culture, it does not present the truth as it is, sometimes even distorting it, and does not allow for proper dealing with the root of the problem.

7.?????? A supportive environment for terrorism - Terrorism doesn't simply sprout from thin air; it necessitates a supportive environment, whether actively or passively ideological. Without this environment, terrorism either doesn't exist or is minimal. The supportive environment is part of the pyramid of support for terrorism. At the top of the pyramid are the leaders of the terrorist organization. In the second tier, you have the active operatives within the organization. In the third tier, there are active supporters who endorse the organization's activities. The fourth tier consists of passive supporters who sympathize with the organization and adhere to its ideology.

In the context of the Western liberal perspective, we often grapple with populations that espouse extreme views contrary to the Western liberal ethos, often using the shield of freedom of speech to express these ideas. In the process of radicalization, the leap from words and ideas to taking action is short. For instance, in 2011, an Israeli reporter named Zvi Yehezkeli produced a documentary that was released in 2012, screened in various European cities, and specifically within communities with extremist inclinations. His exposé unveiled the process of radicalization, the calls for jihad, and the cultural clash between immigrants and Europeans. The investigative documentary accurately predicted the subsequent emergence of Daesh (ISIS), which successfully recruited volunteers from across Europe. Some of the individuals Zvi Yehezkeli interviewed later assumed leadership roles in groups like 'Sharia for Belgium,' which orchestrated the 2016 Brussels bombings.

8.?????? Technological constraints - Technological advancements over the last 30 years have brought about significant and drastic changes in our day-to-day lives, placing also immense power into the hands of criminals or terrorists, allowing them to exploit these advancements for their own purposes. But as part of this technological progress, we've become increasingly dependent on technology, making it a central part of our daily lives.

Can you imagine going without your smartphone for several days? It manages both our private and professional lives. Security organizations also rely on technology, which has significantly transformed how we combat terrorism. Intelligence, security, and military tools have only helped us deal more efficiently with terrorism worldwide.

However, much like an individual, many security organizations around the world have become dependent on technology, sometimes overshadowing the importance of the human factor. This was evident in the 7/10 attack, where there was an over-reliance on advanced technological tools, overlooking the significance of the human element. For example, focusing on human intelligence that collects intelligence from various human intelligence sources. The terrorists who breached Israel's borders overwhelmed the Israeli security and intelligence system by using basic and even primitive means to breach the security apparatus and carry out one of the largest terrorist attacks in history. If a terrorist knows that their communication is being monitored through sophisticated intelligence systems, they will simply stop using their phone. If they know they are being tracked from the air using high-cost, advanced aerial surveillance platforms, they will avoid being exposed on the streets.

As I mentioned in my previous posts, our approach should entail zero tolerance for extremism, zero tolerance for racist views, zero tolerance for violence, and zero tolerance for terrorism, including its supporting environment.

Because if we desire life and seek peace, we must fight for the values that support this worldview without compromise.