The Waiting Room with Atticus Partners

Welcome to the second edition of the Atticus Partners Health Newsletter: The Waiting Room. The second in our regular series, this month’s edition brings you a round-up of 2023, including the key health announcements. It also looks at what 2024 could bring in the health space in what is likely to also be a general election year.?

Also included is our upcoming event with Jess Phillips MP, taking place on the 20th of February at 09:30, at our offices. Find out below how to register for the event.?

For more information about Atticus’ work in the health sector, or if you have any questions about how we can support you and your organisation, please get in touch via [email protected] .?

Checking up on 2023: Key health announcements of the past year

As the nation begins to look ahead to the likely 2024 General Election, political parties have continued to refine their messaging and promises across the health sector.

Aside from Prime Minister Sunak’s proposed generational smoking ban, which he described as the “biggest public health intervention in a generation", the Conservative Party have focused most of their efforts throughout the year on large scale NHS reform. On the 30th of June 2023, the Prime Minister announced the NHS long term workforce plan.

This 15-year project is intended to fill more than 100,000 doctor, nurse and other health worker vacancies and create additional roles to pre-empt future increased demand, save on expensive agency staff, and reduce the health service’s increasing reliance on foreign workers.?

Labour want large scale reform too. With the NHS and healthcare usually being safe territory for the Labour Party, the Shadow Health Secretary, Wes Streeting has used this built-in public trust to advocate for fundamental change, deploying choice statements such as “modernise or die” and “reform to survive”.

In their ‘NHS fit for the future’ plan, announced in February, Labour indicated their intention to shifting services out of hospitals and into the community, “so that the NHS becomes as much a Neighbourhood Health Service as it is a National Health Service”. One example of this is Labour’s ambition to increase access to GPs by modernising the way people book appointments, harnessing the power of the NHS App to end the 8am scramble to book on the day.??

The Liberal Democrats have taken a different stance, pledging to “transform” the nation’s health by tackling lifestyle-induced health complications. The Lib Dems claim unhealthy living underpins 50% of the health burden, leading them to propose banning energy drink sales to under 16s, only allowing junk-food advertising after 9pm, and widening access to blood pressure tests in community spaces like pharmacies and libraries.??

Whilst transformation of the public health system is not a new aim, the renewed challenge for the next No.10 resident will be delivery after inheriting a limited public purse.?

Medicine Shortage Crisis Grips 2023

In early 2022, the issue surrounding medicine shortage hit headlines, shining a light on the spiralling medicine shortage crisis in the UK which continued throughout 2023. This has impacted patient care, public health, and healthcare systems across the nation. Pharmacies have been faced with the challenge of sourcing alternatives – a consequence of more than 5 million people in the UK having to visit multiple pharmacies to receive their prescriptions in full, with almost one in ten travelling more than 10 miles outside their local area.??

Health experts have analysed the multifaceted causes of these shortages, which include global supply chain disruptions, regulatory challenges, and increasing demand for certain medications. Stakeholder reactions include Community Pharmacy England, a national body that represents NHS pharmacists, who claimed that medicine shortages are “as bad as they have ever been”, explaining that the war in Ukraine and manufacturing problems overseas are partly to blame.?

Increased risks to NHS patients have been associated with “severe delays” in drugs supplies caused by Brexit red tape. Supplies most affected include vital antibiotics, hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication, forcing the NHS to pay a premium for the UK to get access.

Furthermore, leading British health experts have also highlighted recent problems obtaining anti-depressants and medication for high blood pressure. The British Generic Manufacturers Association announced that the number of “high impact” shortages is at its highest level in 10 years, with 102 different forms of medication now in short supply, a rate that has doubled in 18 months.?

In November 2023, pharmacy leaders were invited to the first session of a parliamentary inquiry focused on community, primary care and hospital pharmacy services – with the intention to address current challenges. Areas of focus included funding models, digital infrastructure and workforce recruitment, training, and retention. During the session, Dr Leyla Hannbeck, Chief Executive of the Association of Independent Multiple Pharmacies, told the Health and Social Care Committee that she does not believe “enough is being done” by the Department of Health and Social Care to “make medicine availability better in the UK”, with many community pharmacies “struggling to keep their heads above the water”.

As mentioned above, with Labour’s push for large-scale reform of the Public Health Service – they have committed to expand the role of community pharmacies beyond what is proposed by the current Government, prioritising prevention, local healthcare, and patient choice. However, questions have been raised surrounding the likelihood of increased NHS funding specifically for pharmacies. In order for pharmacies to take on their enhanced community health responsibilities, they will require additional funds to boost supply and tackle medicine shortages.???

With the next general election expected soon, and transformation of the public health service likely to be front and centre of both main manifestos, the question remains whether this transformation will include a focus on the protection of Britain’s pharmacies and medicine supply.??

A Lookahead to 2024: The Politics of Health

With promises of reformed social care programmes, digitisation of the NHS, and integrated financial systems, the ambitions of both the Conservatives and Labour are bold and broad ranging. Yet, within the broader aims of transforming the Public Health Service, reducing waiting lists remains a top priority for both parties in 2024.?

Government priorities???

With NHS waiting lists predicted to hit 8 million by the summer of 2024 , much of the Government’s focus in the health sector will be on tackling the issue. One proposed mechanism to achieve this is through NHS England’s elective care recovery plan, published in February 2022. This included a target to see waiting times fall by March 2024. Subsequently pledged in January 2023, the Prime Minister promised that “NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get care more quickly”. At the time the pledge was made, the waiting list stood at 7.2 million – by the end of August 2023, it had hit 7.75 million, the highest ever figure.?

The promise comes against the backdrop of the NHS consistently falling short of hitting the 18-week standard – that no less than 92% of patients on the list of those referred for elective care should have been waiting 18 weeks or less.?

With the Government promising a funding increase to the NHS of ￡190bn in 2024/25, the Conservatives will hope that the earmarked funding will go a long way to address the issue.?

In addition to this, and in line with Labour’s promises to address social care as the main issue that the NHS must grapple, the Government has committed to overhauling the way in which social care is used, pledging to digitise 80% of Social Care providers by the end of March 2024 and improve efficiency of delivery.

Opposition priorities??

In response, Labour has set out a comprehensive agenda for 2024 to achieve the third of its five missions – ‘Building an NHS fit for the future’.?

The policy looks at specific points through a three-point plan:?

• Change in the NHS structure, meaning more people will have access to care within their community.??

This will involve treating long-term ongoing diseases such as arthritis or diabetes at community care hubs and promoting primary care as a key part of Labour’s overarching NHS mission.??

• Modernising technology to deliver healthcare.?

This will include the expansion of capacity and capability in the NHS by tackling workforce challenges and harnessing new technology.? This includes creating 7,500 more medical school places and 10,000 more nursing and midwifery clinical placements per year. They will also look to allocate a proportion of the new medical school places in under-doctored areas, in an attempt to address inequalities in access to healthcare.?

In addition, Labour will seek to use new technology, including AI to address medical issues, which will seek to improve waiting lists by addressing illnesses early, and improve emerging treatments, like drugs for dementia.?

• Changing the focus from treatment to prevention?

Viewing prevention as a key tool to prolong healthier lives, Labour has pledged to embed health across all departments, and creating a Children’s Health Plan, which will make a health plan for all children from birth.?

In addition to this, they will continue to pursue a smoke-free Britain, with Shadow Health Secretary, Wes Streeting MP, backing the Government’s current plan to enforce a generational ban – preventing those born after 2009 from buying cigarettes, and looking to make vapes available on prescription only.?

For Labour, it hopes this "fully costed plan” will form a credible alternative to the Government’s policy proposals across the health space.??

Will the pledges be enough??

With waiting lists soaring, and public opinion of the NHS now at its lowest recorded level since records began, both parties will be hoping that their plans for 2024 will convince the electorate they are capable of delivering the change the British public health system requires.?

Emerging industry trends in 2024

Both major political parties have shown their interest in harnessing the power of technology within our healthcare system and have demonstrated, albeit to differing degrees, a shift towards preventative healthcare. Following the political developments outlined in the sections above, this section outlines some of the wider industry trends and future developments that we can expect to observe in 2024.??

Technology??

The role and use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been a central focus of healthcare discussions and policy developments this year. We are already seeing the adoption of emerging and new technologies, and this deployment is expected to continue at a rapid pace in 2024.??

Across the NHS, AI is already being used to benefit patients, healthcare workers and the wider health system from scanning X-ray images, to speeding up lung cancer diagnoses and reducing waiting lists.? The government has already invested ￡123 million into 86 AI technologies, which is helping patients by supporting stroke diagnosis, screening, cardiovascular monitoring and managing conditions at home. An increasing number of pilot schemes using technology are being trialled, giving a clear indication of a trajectory of where the future lies on this issue.?

The Labour Party, who are widely expected to form the next government, have focused many of their health policies on harnessing the power of technology. Wes Streeting, the Shadow Health Secretary, recently pledged that under Labour, AI will analyse every hospital scan. Furthermore, he recently expressed his desire to learn from Singapore’s healthcare system - which embraces technology and data-driven solutions to reform - and adopt this approach to reform and improve the NHS, such as promoting greater use of the NHS App.?

With both major political parties demonstrating a clear focus on technology in healthcare, this will provide new impetus to greater industry adoption going into 2024 and beyond.??

However, a recent survey found that only half of people in the UK support the use of AI to bring down record NHS waiting lists, which shows much more needs to be done to build the public’s trust in these new technologies, especially if their deployment is expected to increase in the coming years.??

Preventative Healthcare??

Linked to these expected broader technological trends will be the continued shift toward preventative healthcare. From Rishi Sunak’s proposed smoking ban , to Labour’s attempt to shift the focus of our healthcare system from “sickness to prevention” , this trend is clearly here to stay.??

The UK is facing fiscal constraints and will struggle to deliver significant increases in healthcare spending in the immediate future. Therefore, a fundamental challenge, but also opportunity for the next government, will be to harness technology and find innovative solutions to improve health outcomes on a limited budget. It will likely allow already strained healthcare systems to cope with rising demand and the impact of ageing populations, and will also drive forward technological and health progress, producing a wide range of benefits in the years ahead.?

Events?

We’re pleased to announce our next #AskAtticus event, which will be a Q&A event with Jess Phillips MP, Labour’s Member of Parliament for Birmingham Yardley and the former Shadow Minister for Domestic Violence and Safeguarding. The event will be hosted in-person at our office in Millbank and online via Zoom and YouTube. We are inviting guests who attend in person to arrive at 09:00 GMT on 12th December for a brief networking session with Ms Phillips before the live stream begins at 09:30.?

The conversation, hosted by Atticus’ Senior Counsel and Talk TV presenter Peter Cardwell, will be a broad discussion, focused on Labour policies regarding women’s safety, across a range of sectors including housing, health, welfare, and the criminal justice system.?

To register your attendance in person please email [email protected] or register to watch online here .?