Wait, what? A tropical depression!
Gene Norman, CBM
Providing weather ?? services that reduce operating costs | Freelance CNN Meteorologist | Communications Coach
Almost on cue, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, starts off with a tropical depression. Hurricane hunters flew into the mass of clouds in the northern Gulf of Mexico Thursday afternoon and found there was a center of circulation with winds over 35 mph and declared Tropical Depression #2 formed. What happened to TD #1, you ask? I'll get to that in just a moment.
First, here's the first track for the storm, which is expected to mainly meander close to the Gulf of Mexico nearest the western Peninsula.
If it intensifies as it moves over very warm water in this part of the Gulf, it would become Tropical Storm Arlene. The southward movement is due to northerly upper-level steering winds. Those same winds will allow the system to weaken late Sunday as the system approaches the western end of Cuba.
IMPACTS
Heavy rain is expected across western and central Florida today through Saturday, with 1 to 3-inch amounts and some isolated areas getting up to 6 inches. This could lead to isolated flooding:
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WHY ISN'T THIS TD#1?
Back in January, a storm formed in the North Atlantic Ocean. During a post-storm analysis, the National Hurricane Center determined that this storm was, in fact, sub-tropical in nature and designated it as Tropical Depression One, even though several months passed since its formation. The NHC policy, in this case, is to assign the next named storm as TD Two, etc. You can read more about all that here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/PNSNHC/2023/PNSNHC.202305111500.txt.
BOTTOM LINE
Thankfully, this won't be a significant storm, only noteworthy in that it formed on the first day of what is expected to be a slightly above-average season. Here's the official NHC forecast:
Typically, there are, on average, 14 named storms, 7 of which become hurricanes.
El Ni?o is expected to make it windier at higher altitudes, which could limit storm growth. However, it only takes one landfilling storm to make a memorable impact, so residents along the Gulf and Atlantic coast should remain prepared.