Wagner in Africa

On 26th July 2023 Niger’s Presidential Guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum and subsequently the country’s armed forces (FAN) went on to seize power. In the following days, protests were held in the capital Niamey in support of the coup with demonstrators waving Russian flags, prompting speculation about Russian influence in the situation. In early August 2023 FAN requested assistance from the Russian mercenary company Wagner. Some in the international community together with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) suggested an intervention to restore constitutional order in Niger and it appears that FAN signed a contract with Wagner to help blunt any such intervention. There is at least a sentimental tie up – an unverified voice note likely recorded by Wagner Head Yevgeny Prigozhin praised Niger’s coup leaders, calling the development a victory against Western colonialism.

Wagner is a private military company (PMC) based in Russia founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin in 2014. Yevgeny Prigozhin is close to Russian President Vladmir Putin and various state mechanisms including the GRU. Indeed, Wagner’s local and global activities are coordinated by the Kremlin. The appearance of a Wagner coup against Moscow on 23rd June 2023 followed by exile to Belarus has an air of theatrics, including apparent negotiations between Prigozhin and Putin mediated by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. Prigozhin has been reported in Russia since then and it is possible he remains in communication with Putin. In fact, a proposition worth considering is that the banishment to Belarus was simply a sleight of hand aimed at allowing Putin to continue to keep his distance from the actions of this PMC and priming Wagner for Moscow’s bidding on another front.

Wagner’s other fronts are not just in Central Asia and Europe. The involvement of Wagner in the Niger situation underscores Russian influence in Africa. Wagner began operations in Africa via the Central African Republic (CAR) in 2017 after President Faustin-Archange Touadéra called for assistance. Rebel fighters such as Seleka and National Movement for the Liberation of Central African Republic among others threatened his presidency. Wagner fighters have trained CAR’s armed forces, provided security for the country’s mineral sites and have been involved in the protection detail of CAR’s President. In the same year they were in Sudan supporting the then Bashir regime, providing security to mineral sites and training the country’s security forces such as the Rapid Support Forces. They are suspected to be involved in the current Sudan conflict between the army and RSF on the latter’s side. In 2019 they assisted Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF) Commander General Khalifa Haftar in a failed invasion of Tripoli. After the 2020 ceasefire they were required to leave the territory but remained, guarding energy sites and training the LAAF as they controlled some LAAF bases in the east of the country. In the same year they were involved in another failed mission in Mozambique, seeking to quell an Islamist insurgency in Cabo Delgado Province; they left the country in the months after but did some “political work” for President Nyusi among other security and energy-related work. Finally, in 2021 they were contacted by coup leaders in Mali to assist in quelling Islamist and militia-related insurgency. Part of their work was seen in civilian casualties in central Mali around 2022 which was reported by non-governmental organisations (casualties are highlighted because their actions in Libya and Mozambique suggest they lack some capability in closing out their operations).

Entering into contracts with Wagner has socio-politico-economic implications across Africa. Prior to Wagner being contracted for work in the various African countries pro-Russian social media accounts undertake campaigns promoting Russia, while other entities (some linked to Prigozhin) conduct a form of social awareness program to prepare people for Russian entry. In Niger’s case for example the anti-colonial/western sentiment was fuelled by these accounts to cast Russia as a helper of Africa. Economically, the company characteristically operates in countries with important mineral resources (e.g. energy (oil) or earth-based (coltan, gold)) and negotiates its presence based on the expectation that it will have a majority share. ?

Indeed, we always need to tie the presence of Wagner to exploitative commercial activities. Their Moscow driven agenda is to secure rare minerals and resources but more importantly to secure cash. That can be in the form of revenues from security activities (such as oil wells they protect) or by plundering gold and other high currency commodities. Those resources not only will be aimed at funding the Ukraine war but propping up the Russian economy in general.

In concert with the commercial agenda is the obvious political agenda which seeks to take advantage of economies and resources of fragile states. By propping up regimes that can barely stand on their own Wagner is able to dictate its own commercial terms or even plunder resources without entering into agreements with their host. Stripping gold from an unsettled Sudan is a case in point. Agreements are usually opaque (including those touching on minerals) and the lack of transparency has a knock-on effect on governance and economics. The opaqueness encourages corruption on both sides of these agreements.

Corruption is laced everywhere of course, whether east or west but ?Wagner operates in countries where ?Western influence is absent or degraded such as Sudan, Libya and recently Niger. And if it’s not sufficiently degraded Wagner’s agenda is bent to that end. Their aim is to utilise resources and political infrastructure to disrupt Western influence, oversight and accountability. One implication is that these countries will continue to experience poor governance and insecurity as Western efforts to establish democracy are dismissed and where armed forces trained by Western allies focus on other objectives. However we don’t believe they intend to ever combat any Western led intervention. Rather they maintain enough disruption and discord to allow them to pillage resources without obstruction.

Wagner is likely to continue operating in countries where it is already established unless there is government change or mineral resources have been depleted or the mission has failed. However ?Prigozhin has indicated Wagner has plans to expand to other African countries, in hopes of “freeing” the continent. What does that mean for our partners and clients?

First, Wagner’s debased value placed on human life combined with a complete disregard for law and order and their dismissal of any codes of justice mean any interaction with them will never be on an even playing field. Their commercial interests are their own and any attempt to deal with them will always be on their terms. Expect a different moral code to your own.

Secondly, and arising from the first, given the unlawful nature of their business operations one might expect that any dealings with them will result in the compromise of the partner’s business. And even if any relationship ever proved successful Western law enforcement and security and intelligence service interest may well be expected, quite apart from the opprobrium of the business and political community. In truth any connection is usually commercially fatal and the track record speaks for itself – no partnership or deal survives contact with Wagner as Moscow drives its proxy to seize all that it can for the cheapest or no price.

Thirdly, the political influence exercised by Wagner means it has a significant capacity to seize what it wants, with no accountability. Licenses and permits necessary to operate in host countries may well be cancelled. Worse, assets could be seized and the safety of staff threatened, with no recourse to the defence of local law enforcement or the judiciary. Even businesses such as established mining operations near borders of countries with Wagner forces should be alert to cross border smuggling or attempts to steal resources. When necessary it has demonstrated deft capacity to creating violent civil disruption to mask its grand larceny and it seems to be able to do that with impunity. Wagner has proven to be no respecter of political boundaries – those drawn on maps or those played out in the halls of power – and no respecter of any rules based order. If you have something of value and it’s within reach of Wagner the threat of loss is very real.

*Published on the day news received that Prigozhin has been killed. Given the nature of the proxy relationship we expect that there will be no adjustment to Moscow's agenda in Africa via its PMCs.

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