Wagering on the NFL Draft

During my time in Las Vegas I've come across many different type of wagering options. However, this would be a first. Several of the sports books in Nevada have decided to offer odds on the 2017 #nfldraft which is taking place this week in Philadelphia. While there are only a few offerings, it marks the first time in the history of the Nevada sports books that they're offering something of this type. Many of the proposition offerings that we see in the Vegas sports books deal with things that take place during the game. An old saying that we have is "you can wager on things that take place between the lines."

This is new territory for the Nevada sports betting industry. It's not ironic that it comes during a time when casinos are fully experimenting with new types of wagering machines throughout the gaming floor. There is a need for the casinos to attract the consumers' back to the floor in order to drive up their gambling revenue.

For smaller bettors and/or edge seekers, it opens up a potential opportunity. Although it may be a bit short-lived and not worth the time for professional bettors, there could be some potential profit in wagering on the draft.

Let's take a look at a few of the #nfldraft wagering options below:

Southeastern Conference

In five of the last six years, the SEC has led the nation in First Round NFL Draft Selections. It has been a wide margin since 2010, as the #ACC and #BigTen rank second and third respectively.

The question we have is: How strong is that 11 that the books are offering? Let's pull in a small amount of data to help.

One way to take a look at this offering is to see the history of SEC selections in the first round of the draft.

Below are the number of SEC players selected in the first round since 2010:

2016: 8

2015: 7

2014: 11

2013: 12

2012: 9

2011: 11

2010: 7

In a very small sample size (keyword being small), the 11 that many of the books are offering is one of two modes (bimodal). The mean is 9.29 while the median is 9. In recent years, had this wager been offered at the same price:

The Under would've cashed four times.

The Over would've cashed once.

The bet would've pushed twice.

A second way to look at this wager is to take a look at the total number of SEC players selected in the first round since 2010 (65). Then divide that by the total number of players selected in the first round since 2010 (188). That would give you a selection rate of .3457. Multiply that rate by the total number of selections in the first round of the NFL Draft (32) to get an expected number of selections at 11.06.

Based on it's history, Vegas has set a solid line at 11. Regardless of whether you play the Over or Under, based on the vig of -115, you would need to win this wager 53.49% of the time in order to break even.

I, for one, won't be touching any of the draft prop wagers. However, if you are putting in some action on the draft, hopefully this info will help you win. If you do win and feel like sharing, our mailing address is...

Just kidding!

Enjoy and Good Luck!

Duane

High Roller Fund

6S Alternatives LLC

NFL Draft odds available at Station Casinos

SEC draft information compiled from www.secsports.com