Wade’s Predictions for 2024…

2023 was a curious year. Despite a lot of fiscal nail biting and general nervousness, the recession that so many people had predicted (including me), never really came to pass. Somehow, inflation, high interest rates, natural disasters, and wars were not enough to drag the world’s economy down, despite stuttering a bit here and there.

Instead, as I and others predicted, the technology and business landscapes were dominated by the rise and rise of generative AI (ChatGPT and its brethren), which was just emerging into the mainstream in January. By the end of the year, generative AI is still red hot, but maybe starting to peak. So, what will happen in 2024?

As generative AI moves on from text-based chatbots to multi-modal formats and niche applications, we will see a major shift in its usefulness. Along these lines, I have 3 large predictions for 2024. The first one is frightening. The second is exciting. The third could go either way.

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1.?????? ‘Seeing is no longer believing’: 2024 will be the year of the Deep Fake.

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Deep fakes have been around for a while, but they will become a huge problem in 2024. Why? Because of availability, quality, and impact. The technology needed to produce deep fakes is becoming more widely accessible than ever before, at a much lower cost. Generative AI, of course, is optimized for this. Emails can be written in any style, in near perfect language. Are you sure that the email from the CFO really came from her? When it comes to the written word (in most mainstream languages), the battle is already lost. Can we really know if something was written by a human or AI? No wonder many Silicon Valley folks are writing posts in lower case without punctuation – it’s the only way to be sure that it hasn’t been written by AI!

Writing is one thing, but the real developments in 2024 will come via voice and video. Voice cloning services like ElevenLabs are getting so good that voices can be almost perfectly cloned. Two-factor authentication by voice will soon be dead. Voice mails cannot be trusted. I have now cloned my own voice, so that any text I choose can be read in my voice. This is incredibly useful, as I can narrate my posts and books in a fraction of the time and cost it used to require. However, there is a dark side - in the wrong hands, I could ‘appear’ to say anything.

While audio is significant, video is transformative. Matching voice with images will create hyper-realistic videos of people saying things they did not say and doing things they did not do. Video is getting very realistic, accessible, and cheap. Imagine the damage a video of a male CEO leaving a brothel with a (seemingly) underage girl could cause. Or a supposedly ‘off camera’ clip of an executive admitting that a product is defective. Corporate espionage and blackmail will soar.

There’s more. In 2024, more than half the world’s population will go to the polls. In addition to the United States, elections will be held in India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, and the UK, among many other places. I predict that deep fake videos will play a role in each and every contest. The proliferation of fake videos will lead to confusion about what is real and what is not, which, by itself, could influence outcomes. Deep fake videos have already emerged in Ukraine and Gaza, leading to real decisions being made based on events that never happened.

Election fraud, corporate blackmail, market manipulation, deep-fake cybersecurity incidents… expect them all to happen in 2024. This will lead to a constant battle to identify whether a piece of writing, an image, an audio clip, or a video is real or not (tip: pay attention to ears and fingers!). A cat-and-mouse cottage industry will appear around AI tools to recognize content created by AI tools.?

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2.?????? ‘The world’s biggest communication barrier will fall’: 2024 will see significant advancements in simultaneous translation.

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Simultaneous translation has been around for a while, but automated, digital tools have fallen short of analogue approaches. This is about to change. In 2024, we will dispense with the need to hire people to listen to our conversations and awkwardly translate our words.

The benefits of simultaneous translation at scale are obvious and dramatic. Imagine that you are on a Teams call with 5 other people and each one of you has a different mother tongue (I experience this most days). If you want to speak together, you basically have 2 options. You can hire a simultaneous translator (or translators). Anyone who has done this knows how uncomfortable it is, and how much context is lost along the way (there is reason for the phrase ‘lost in translation’). The second option is to agree on a common language, often English, and use that. Yet, speaking in a language that is not your native tongue always involves compromise. You are rarely your best self.

Imagine instead that each person can speak in his or her native ‘source’ language and everyone else on the call will hear that person’s voice (not a translator, or a robot) in their own native ‘target’ language, in real time. When this is achieved, language simply ceases to become a barrier. Conversations instantly become easier, and more sophisticated. The more than 80% of the planet that does not speak English as a first (or second) language can participate in any conversation.

There are 4 tasks that need to be completed, in real time, for true simultaneous translation to work. Today, each of these is pretty good in isolation, and in 2024, they will be stitched together in real time (I’ll make a separate post about how this will happen).

Here are the 4 tasks:

Task 1: Real time transcription from voice to text. As we have seen with Zoom, Teams, and other tools, voice-to-text transcription is already quite decent.

Task 2: Real time translation from the text of the source language to the text of the target language. Google Translate and similar tools already do a good job of this.

Task 3: Animation of target language text to voice. A number of tools can do this today.

Task 4: Rendering of a generic voice to the voice of the original speaker. A few tools can do this.

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If tasks 1-3, or ideally 1-4, can be achieved, then we move into a world where language barriers fall. Initially, this will happen in virtual settings, like online meetings or classrooms. However, in time, we will see devices that people wear in their ears that allow simultaneous translation in physical settings.

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3.?????? AI companions: Your own personal digital assistant

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The potential of tools like ChatGPT to help us become more productive is limitless, but the reality is less impressive. Most generative AI tools are not very intuitive or user-friendly. The attitude of most people I talk to is ‘it’s very cool, but what is it good for?’, a bit like the first PCs.

One issue is that ChatGPT and other generative AI tools don’t really know you. They can remember a few of your previous prompts, but these are quickly forgotten. Imagine a tool that really knows you - what you like, how you like to work, what you know and don’t know, what you’ve asked for in the past, and what you are likely to need in the future. An AI companion will know which app can solve a problem you have, then download and configure it for you. It will help you draft a business proposal, write an email, share a selfie, analyze your data, propose a training course, schedule a meeting, buy a train ticket, or even suggest a lifestyle change.

Clippy didn’t survive and Siri, Alexa, and Cortana have been massive disappointments. But these tools were powered by old AI technology. Generative AI companions will be able to predict what you want, find what you need, and generate new information to help you to live and work better. Want to plan a long weekend in Sicily? It will suggest hotels to fit your budget, restaurants that serve food you like, and activities that are compatible with your lifestyle. Then, if you approve, it will scour the Internet for the best deals.

Sound like a privacy nightmare? Definitely… depending on how much you choose to share with your companion. Yet, like any service, it will ultimately come down to a trade-off between cost and benefit, risk and reward. For a more productive, smooth, and happy life, many people will choose to open themselves up to their AI companions.

AI companions, which will appear in 2024, will be an interface between you and the online world, never-resting virtual assistants that protect and inform you, constantly separating signals from noise. They will generate a lot of debate and soul searching, but, for most of us, their benefits will outweigh their costs.

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I have some other thoughts about 2024, particularly around the fortunes of the digital giants, and I’ll share these in a separate post.

My colleague Michael Yaziji asked me mid-year if I was excited or frightened by generative AI. The answer then was ‘both’ and I think it will continue that way in 2024. There is so much to gain from these technologies, but also a lot to lose. On balance, I am optimistic about 2024, but I would like to see a few more guardrails to protect us from the risks.

I wish you all the very best over the holiday season and a happy and prosperous new year!

Mike