VW struggles with SW, Europe EV strategy, VanMoof new e-bikes - MOBILITY BRIEF_ ??????? - May 12th
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Good Friday everybody, it's time for your weekly Mobility Brief!???
On the menu this week
We’ll go straight to the point in this edition with the main highlights of the week!
?? Worth Your Attention
?? Volkswagen & Software: Definitely Not A Piece Of Cake
If Herbert Diess was a smart cookie and knew the importance of baking great softwares in order to sell its cars like hot cakes, Oliver Blume knows that actually delivering software is the daily bread of a car manufacturer in the software era. Yet, despite heavily betting on its CARIAD software division, the German brand is late, so let’s not sugercoat it: Volkswagen may have wanted its bread buttered on both sides and is now starting to eat its humble pie. Well, I’ll stop here with the (not-so) subtile references to the Volkswagen pie-gate (see here), but start here with the reality check for VW and software. Herbert Diess launched CARIAD in 2020 with the huge ambition of bringing sovereignty, value and control to VW in its software, but delays after delays (approx. 2 years currently) and bugs after bugs, the strategy seemed to turn into disarray. The huge problems faced in its ID-family even cost Herbert Diess its job last summer, and Oliver Blume quickly put an emphasize on solving this crisis when taking over, throwing a few billions into CARIAD’s burnpit that did not prevent a 20k vehicles recall on the ID.4 last February.
That’s enough seems to have judged Blume, and Volkswagen decided to completely overthrow its software division’s management, replacing its CEO, CFO and CTO in the process. Peter Bosch took over as the one-man leader of CARIAD, after having successfully “realigned Bentley” within the group. But the shift is wider, and the legacy of Diess will definitely be damaged along the way, as partnerships will now be a major part of the software equation at Volkswagen. First symbolic announcement: future Porsches next-gen ADAS systems will be powered by Mobileye. An obvious solution for Porsche as the “Software 2.0” release supposed to enable Level-4 driving was announced this week to be delayed from 2026 to 2027-2028.
But let’s not be too hard on Volkswagen: software is complicated, and it’s even harder when you don’t choose the easy way out. Look at Polestar and Volvo: they may have chosen Google with Android Automotive for some of their software, they’re still facing delays for EV-platform software that are postponing the production of both Polestar 3 and Volvo EX90 to early 2024. Same problems and same dramatic impacts, with Polestar laying off 10% of its workforce as a consequence. But it does not mean that manufacturers are dawned for software: GM has been taking an ambitious path, similar to Volkswagen in many ways but with major differences that may gives them an edge over their German competitor. First, while Volkswagen split up with Ford over ArgoAI, GM has been continuously deploying its commercial robotaxi in the US, cities after cities (last update: Houston and Dallas in a few days). Then there’s the casting: if Google Automotive is used for customer-facing software, the software “under-the-hood” and strategy surrounding it is in-house, so GM didn’t choose the internal way for its software leadership. It just brought the ex-VP of Apple’s iCloud to its ship, Mike Abbott, an experienced captain who certainly knows how to tame the rough waters of software.
One thing is sure, time is running out as software is turning into a key criteria in purchase decision. And Chinese manufacturers have already acknowledged that.
??Gigafactory, Fundings & Policies: Europe Goes Full Throttle
The Taiwanese Prologium Technology 輝能科技 chooses Dunkirk to set up its first gigafactory abroad to produce solid-state batteries. The investment planned reaches €5.2Bn by 2030 and should lead to the creation of 3k jobs over time according to the AFP. That makes 4 gigafactories now: 2 in Dunkirk (Prologium Technology 輝能科技 and Verkor), 1 in Douvrin (ACC) and 1 in Douai (Envision AESC). The success story doesn't stop there for Dunkirk as the Chinese company XTC New Energy Materials, which specializes in the production of materials for electric batteries, is also considering setting up in Dunkirk with Orano to create a JV in batteries recycling. “Un, dos, tres…” as our friend Ricky Martin sings, rarely had such good news there since the passage of Christopher Nolan!
Projects are launched, funding is flowing and the last example to date is DRIVECO, a pioneer start-up of electric recharging in France, is bringing in APG Financial as a shareholder with €250M. All these ambitions require a wider framework to orchestrate their success and the French Government is well aware of this. After presenting his strategic vision for the reindustrialization of the country at the Elysée Palace on Thursday, Emmanuel Macron will visit Aluminium Dunkerque, the largest producer of primary aluminium in Europe, today to detail his plan. One part of it is the "green industry tax credit" and an overhaul of the EV bonus to take into account the carbon footprint of battery production (and indirectly favor vehicles & batteries produced in Europe). In the end, it's all about balance between the manufacturers and the buyers, especially in this period of inflation. Can we both democratize EV and protect the European industry?
In the meantime, according to Matthias Schmidt, Germany has reached for the first time 1M units rate of combined BEV and PHEV models over 12 months. Thus, “every fourth passenger car manufactured in Germany is now a plug-in”.
The European impulse seems to be there, but long is the road ahead of us.
?? VanMoof Launches its New S4 & X4 e-bikes, Ditches Apple Find My
The S4 and X4, two new e-bikes (in 4 colors) from the Dutch manufacturer VanMoof, are available for pre-orders since Tuesday! Both e-bikes use the same technology but have a slightly different design: the X4 provides a smaller and compact bike frame. Presented as a cheaper alternative to the S5 & X5, what differentiates them if not more than ~€1k? Two speed automatic shifter vs. 3, end of support of Apple Find My, lose of the torque sensor, isn't that already enough for what we expect from an e-bike? If we refer to the testers’ opinion, it seems so. Goed gedaan!
?? What Else?
领英推荐
???Yamaha announced two new e-bikes, the BOOSTER and BOOSTER Easy. In term of design, we are far from the good old MBK Booster that Antoine rode when he was in high school. For the Easy, the max speed is limited to 25kmh (due to EU regulation on e-bikes) while the Booster can reach 45kmh, just like a 50cm3! With a range between 50km and 120km, depending of the mode you ride, this makes it an interesting product! No release date and prices shared yet.
?? New Car Reveals:
??The EV Conquest:
???Investment/Financial Updates:
???AV Updates:
???From Our Event Shortlist Last Week:
“1 in 5 of Peugeot’s cars sold in France in April was the e208 on a €150 per month plan” Linda Jackson, Peugeot CEO
“E-fuels give life to engine technology” ”We don’t care about autonomous driving” Benedetto Vigna, Ferrari CEO
“Alpine could be a potential for an [IPO after Ampere] but it will take time to show investors the power of the project.” Luca de Meo, Renault Group CEO
[Chinese manufacturers] are showing “massive strength”, “we should not be relaxed and sitting down. The lead time is very agile.” Makoto Uchida, Nissan Motor Corporation CEO
About GM returning to Europe: “The greatest pain points for consumers is in vehicle discovery, vehicle exploration and the vehicle purchase process. These are key areas of innovation for us.” Jaclyn McQuaid, General Motors Europe CEO
?? What's on next week?
?? After the Financial Times event last week, it’s now Reuters who organize its “Reuters Automotive Events” from Tuesday to Wednesday, in both Europe and USA :
??We usually don’t bookmark them all, but note that Tesla will host its Annual Shareholder Meeting on Tuesday, so be sure we’ll certainly have additional infos on the carmakers plan for the next Mobility Brief!
See you next week and don't forget to share and subscribe to the newsletter!
VanMoof DRIVECO Prologium Technology 輝能科技 Orano Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. Lei Xing Ouster Cruise Motional Qualcomm Autotalks Clément Le Roy Mathieu Sabarly