Vulnerability, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity: The Constant of the 21st Century?

In my short life (it is in the perspective of history) I have already witnessed three world overturns. Each generation has its own. In 1989 I watched from Germany the fall of the Wall and the dismantling of the Soviet Union. In 2020 came the Covid pandemic, and in 2022 we have been hit by a violent and unjust tectonic realignment provoked by Putin, but which had already been announced, and the bells are already ringing for the climate crisis that apparently awaits us in 2030 or 2050 at the latest.

The term VUCA (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity) comes from the military environment. It seems to me to describe very well what has become a constant and perhaps always has been and each generation has had to manage its own. In my case I read it like this:

Vulnerability

The pandemic has taught us a lesson in vulnerability. It has hit everyone in the world and almost at the same time. The rich countries have been able to defend themselves better and have contributed to the defence of the poorest through vaccination. We have discovered the weakness of globalisation and the fragility of supply lines. We thought we could buy everything from China and buy it cheaper, and we are still doing fine.

We are witnessing a major economic war and a global conflict over raw materials, especially those related to energy and food. Ukraine is Europe's grain vault and its lack will also exacerbate hunger in Africa.

We have also seen the heroic response of those who are ready to defend their country and those who are taking in the millions of refugees who have been on the move in just a few days.

Uncertainty

Patience, resilience, flexibility and a spirit of improvisation are the virtues needed to manage this exhausting uncertainty and this is why mental health is being given so much importance. Doing sport, distracting oneself, disconnecting from the screen or connecting with loved ones. This is what helps us to be pro-active. In the face of what seems endless, we must approach it with a spirit of self-improvement. A few days ago I was talking to a Ukrainian woman who studied at the IESE Business School and whose parents live in Kiev. She told me: after spending the first four days without knowing who I am, or what time it is, or whether it is day or night, the only thing that gives me life now is my love for my country and my desire to rebuild it.

We keep hearing threats: nuclear weapons, the Russians allying with the Chinese, cooling our bank accounts and Taiwan getting ready. This is exhausting.

Complexity

Much of the cause of vulnerability lies in complexity. We see the interdependence of countries and their borders with the pandemic and we are seeing the global complexity of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Countries like New Zealand and Kenya have spoken out on this. No country in history has received as much weaponry as Ukraine in such a short time and there has never been such a concerted sanction against Russia. On the other hand, the need for cooperation and collaboration in medical research, for example, has never been more beneficial, to say the least.

The complexity has been compounded by the deliberate confusion of the "fakenews". We have already learned that propaganda is one of the instruments that anticipates and accompanies a war. Who is not sick and tired of being sent videos for and against the same issue.?

Ambiguity

Ambiguity is the only thing we can somehow manage ourselves. It is time to think about what is the foundation of our society and of Europe. It is up to us to discern. A few weeks before this earthquake we have been busy (in Germany at least) with the theory of Gender, as if there were no other problems to solve. We are playing with the concept of nature: what is natural or unnatural. Who decides? Concord between peoples is only possible if we speak the same language, if we are able to understand each other, if we are able to build with the truth.