VUCAnology

Vulcanology is the study of volcanos. VUCAnology is the study of the impact of volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous conditions on decision makers and their organizations. COVID has made more things unpredictable.

VUCA is a concept that originated with students at the U.S. Army War College to describe the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity of the world after the Cold War. And now, the concept is gaining new relevance to characterize the current environment and the leadership required to navigate it successfully.

More than three decades ago, the U.S. Army War College developed a framework for understanding how leaders succeed during times of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. The framework, known as VUCA, has been widely discussed and adopted since, but it turns out to be better at describing what successful leaders do than teaching all leaders how to succeed. These authors present an updated approach that has generated positive outcomes in military, business, and sports contexts.

Unpredictable events can be positive or negative. The unexpected results. if recognized as such, are entrepreneurial opportunities, since entrepreneurship is the pursuit of opportunity under VUCA conditions with the goal of creating user/customer/stakeholder value through the deployment of innovation using a VAST business model. Leading an entrepreneurial endeavor takes the skills of a special operator.

A wave of new scientific discoveries reveals that learning to lean into uncertainty in times of rapid change is a promising antidote to mental distress, not a royal road to angst, as many of us assume. A growing body of evidence and a range of new interventions suggest that skillfully managing uncertainty in the face of what’s murky, new or unexpected is an effective treatment for anxiety, a likely path to building resilience and a mark of astute problem-solving ability.

?Researchers have documented a rise in economic uncertainty in recent years, using text-based measures that track descriptions of economic conditions by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Not only does that work show that uncertainty is rising, it points to five crises that are driving it — including, most recently, the invasion of Ukraine. The researchers also suggest strategies for dealing with uncertainty: Pay more attention to geopolitics as it will continue to affect your business. Be willing to pay for flexibility, so you can change course more easily in the future. And invest in contingency planning to gain practice responding to economic and political shocks.

In uncertain times, companies that aggressively prioritize and focus on what is within their own control can retain and earn the confidence and trust of their people, customers, investors, and other stakeholders. Leading companies are keeping it simple and focusing on what they can control, setting strategy by asking five key questions: 1) Am I differentiated? 2) Am I fit for growth? 3) Is my IT spend effective and at the right levels? 4) Is my portfolio of businesses too complex? and 5) How do I reduce risk?

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Volatile times can batter midsize companies in ways larger companies can more readily withstand. But there are ways those smaller companies can leverage their size to take advantage of tough times. Those that do are far more likely to come out on the other side of uncertainty not only stronger, but ready to grow when the headwinds become tailwinds. If you’re helping guide a midsize company through turbulence and change and worry that your key talent or your culture may be at risk, here are some ways you can leverage your size — and the uncertainty — to navigate both.

The introductory course in VUCAnology is now available online. Learning objectives include learning:

1. How to see the unimaginable around corners
2. How to plan for black swan events
3. How to lead in a VUCA environment

1. How to go from just in time to just in case

1. How to transition your organization to being reflective and ambidextrous from being reflexive and rigid
2. How to manage the impact of VUCA events on your workforce
3. How to address not knowing what you don't know
4. Understanding and responding to the economic consequences of VUCA events
5. Understanding politics and pandemics
6. VUCA history and lessons learned or forgotten
7. How to succeed in uncertain times
8. Six strategies for leading through uncertainty
9. The best strategy is adaptability
10. The upside of uncertainty

?Most existing strategy frameworks, developed during a more stable era, don’t work well in dynamic conditions. We need new frameworks to guide companies through uncertainty. These authors suggest three key features emerge as common to these frameworks: the individual’s ability to cope with uncertainty; the organization’s ability to experiment; and recognizing that strategy is a creative exercise.

Are you ready?

For the safety and health of our students and community, we will be canceling our summer semester. Things are so volatile,uncertain, complex and ambiguous, in fact, we are not sure whether, how or when we'll be offering the course next. Stay in touch on our website for further details and announcements about our financial plan moving forward.

Arlen Meyers, MD, MBA is the President and CEO of the Society of Physician Entrepreneurs on Substack and Editor of Digital Health Entrepreneurship