dc://VR is set to fail (updates mar+jun17+apr20)
Dominic Cameron
Impact. 6 exits (2 IPO, 2 PE, 2 trade) Chair, NXD in support of Founders in UK, Saudi, Singapore - proudly at Track24, CovertSwarm, Sliide, Moteefe, Zephr, Moonpig, lastminute.com, Photobox, BBC, ITV, PropertyFinder
(adds below: the first application I find really compelling and some articles to read)
I wonder if I am alone here
Is there an emperor has no clothes gig going on ?
Echoes of speech recognition and 3DTV
Decades to break through. Or years to fade away
A feature and not a business ?
Cash rich players spend like crazy (so what's new ? )
But beyond the odd chunky niche, a mass consumer play? Nah
Us humans we are addicted to stories
But we don't want to have to write the endings
We don't want to be the story subject
We want to be surprised, to be thrilled, to enjoy
The author sets the pace and leads
That's plenty and it works
Rich colour. Sharp definition. Crystal sound. Yes.
We gasp at the sight of Everest filling our vision
But do we want to look up, or behind, or beside us?
We are swept along by dialogue or action
But we don't care about 360. Bored of swivelled heads
Multiple focal points tire and confuse
The director guides our focus and it works
Helmets. Glasses. Lenses
Stories work well if we can hold hands
hear the laughter beside us,
glance at our friend's smile or look of horror
You want to touch your partner's arm
You don't want his head in a helmet
VR is set to fail
(adds Feb 2017)
- Hugo agrees with Zuck that VR/AR is "the next major computing platform"
- FT.com Cox visits Rosedale (High Fidelity, Second Life) and admires VR demo
- I book a Saturday demo at Peter Jones London store. All booking Friday and Saturday booking slots were available. Well handled demo. Series of 1-3 minute demos. A fun wizard/fight game. Fast and slick but only a weak WOW factor. I feel none of the thrill of my first sight of a colour TV, or HDTV or 4K. Feels more like Sony Playstation 5.5
- Facebook pulls Oculus demo sites. Price cut $200
(adds Mar 2017)
- Sony's five major demos at SXSW. Working hard at it. Not convincing me.
- That personal experience of the pain of weekly shopping at Rustans in Rockwell, Makati City or at Waitrose in Kings Road, London tells me that Google and Apple will make this application of AR work. Waze-like shop map, or camera-driven AR?
(adds Jun 2017)
- Large scale Walmart deployment in training centres with STRIV Labs. To watch.
(adds Apr 2020)
- Magic Leap lays off 1,000, exits consumer business, and struggling to survive.
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8 年Hi Dominic, Great post. ?? I actually think that there is a lot of hype about VR and yes we might be a long way off. But gradually I believe its going to eventually be an asset to businesses. Just think about if you are an angel investor living in the UK and you have an interest in investing into a property (lets say in USA.) Your be able to use your VR Headset, glasses to view the property before making the decision to fly and visit. I also believe it will become a great tool for the travel industry also and agree with Jeff Brades
I partially agree. A lot of the recent narrative about VR has been around storytelling, perhaps as a result of 'Pearl' getting an Oscar nomination. It's impressive, but I agree this won't be the way we want to engage with stories - and if the VR film is not animated, I expect the challenge of hiding the film crew will push the production costs through the roof. I can see a small role for VR in secondary content - perhaps allowing fans to explore the environment and sets for key scenes from a miniseries - but behind the scenes shows can only ever be a niche. There is reason to think that VR has a couple of killer apps though. As Aaron McKee says, there are strong possibilities for VR in telepresence and gaming. And I've been impressed by demos of augmented reality combined with VR - particularly a medical example of looking inside a patient.
Chief Operating Officer
8 年3D TVs is another example, yep!
#OPENTOWORK: Executive Leader / Global Functional Owner / Growth & Account Based Selling Expertise / Financially Focused Turnaround & Evolution / End User Driven Transformation Experience (x4)
8 年I agree that is hasn't found it's killer purpose yet. V1 I would agree on but in a world where I could dial in to a virtual conference room and meet with my colleagues from around the world in a lifelike environment then I see a day when you can sell your BA shares, can your Marriott rewards card and get that fussball table for the video conferencing room. Long way off, no doubt, but worth the wait. But, to your point, when you've done one VR balloon ride you've kind of done it all - it needs to evolve beyond the 'Wow' of the tech.
Chief Technology Officer at Blis
8 年I'd tend to disagree. I think if you substitute "video games" with "vr" in your article, it would read the same and the market has clearly indicated there's a strong, mass market demand for video games. People DO love being a part of the story and not just pulled along. VR also connects people in a way that other means just don't do as well. Look at how transformative video calling has been in the mass market, bridging friends and families in a way that wasn't previously possible. Now imagine if you could dial that experience up another level. Using VR, I've sat and watched Netflix with friends thousands of miles away and it's felt like being in a theater. SecondLife, World of Warcraft, and other MMOs have had user bases in the many, many millions. VR Google Street View and other location maps also hint at an amazing new way to experience the world, on your own or together. VR will consume these fields like a wildfire. When I've shared my VR set with others, even non gamers and non geeks, the universal response has been wonder and amazement. The tech is still very rough around the edges, but it's only a matter of time. In my own opinion, VR (and AR) are transformative techs on the scale of artificial intelligence.