VR fans: stop worrying about Apple's glasses (there are some who SHOULD worry, though!)

VR fans should not worry about Apple's upcoming augmented reality/spatial computing glasses.

Instead they should be energized. Here's why:

I am hearing that Apple's glasses will cost $1,500 to $2,500. That's not counting the 5G iPhone that will be necessary. Or the other accessories you'll want from the Apple ecosystem like a couple of wireless charging pads, a new Watch, and other goodies. I'm expecting to spend around $4,000 to buy Apple's complete ecosystem next year when the 5G iPhone comes along (and I doubt that we'll pay cash, too, there's a reason why Apple is doing its own credit card and will have a monthly plan for these purchases, something that other players can't really compete with either due to Apple's deep pockets). We'll see if these rumors come true, but I can see why when Irena Cronin and I talk with players in the ecosystem like companies that make optics, along with other components a pair of "Siri glasses" (which is how I think of them, since that's probably how most consumers will think of them) will need. The next round of hyper small optics, lasers, sensors, batteries, wireless chips, et al, are hyper expensive. 

Apple is aiming at a pair that totally blow away Microsoft's HoloLens or Magic Leap. Much lighter, much better screens inside, much "cooler" to wear to the shopping mall, or to work, or on a plane.

Which brings us to VR. VR will be the beneficiary of a whole bunch of new interest in the spatial computing field as Apple enters sometime next year. We're also seeing a new range of Micro OLED and optics that will bring something like an Oculus Quest but with at least double the resolution, and about 1/3rd the weight and size.

This is why earlier I said I still see the two as totally separate use cases and consumers. In fact, I'm expecting to buy one of the new Apple glasses, despite their rumored high price, along with at least one or two new VR headsets in the next 24 months as these new micro OLED-based devices hit the market.

Here's the rub. The Apple glasses are rumored to only have a smallish field of view. I keep hearing 50 degrees from my sources. That's a little better than a HoloLens but not big enough to do true immersive stuff.

I'm seeing optics coming on the VR side of the house that will give up to 180 degree field of view. For those who don't know, that's more than what your eyes can perceive. So it's like being in a movie where you can't see the edge of the screen. Games and movies and virtual environments will be better in VR. The next generation of VR, which will probably ship in 2021, will also cost far less than Apple's devices will, and will be, like the current Oculus Quest (a product my family really loves) self-contained, which means it won't need a phone or a wire to a PC.

To round it up, VR is better for escapism. When you are in VR you can't see the real world (for the most part) and nor do you want to (for the most part). In Apple's glasses the real world will still be hugely important to you and AR will add on utility, like showing you how to navigate to a restaurant, or showing you notifications, or giving you new video games you play on top of the real world (which will be cool, but hardly as escapist as VR games are).

I see a role for both, even though I bet AR glasses end up selling 1000x more than VR, even smaller, sharper, better VR goggles. And that shouldn't be threatening to VR at all. Apple's glasses success (or lack thereof, if the market rejects them) won't affect VR at all, and, I can see a role for getting a lot of people interested in VR.

There's no way in hell I can afford to buy all three of my kids $4,000 worth of kit, for instance, just to buy a game, so I bet there will be plenty of games that will work in both VR and Apple's own glasses. I'll wear the Apple ones most of the time, the kids can play me in their VR goggles that will cost less than $500 (or play along on their iPads or iPhones).

I put a photo of Apple's store in Barcelona, Spain, up above for a reason. Apple has the unique ability to demonstrate new technology and get people excited about it. So, there will be many who enter these stores around the world in about a year to get a look at Apple's glasses. Some of those will decide to look at alternatives. VR could really benefit by having a strong offering that does stuff Apple's glasses won't do (immersion, for one, affordability, for two). So, I'm looking for VR to be rejuvenated once Apple enters the market.

So, who should worry?

Well, the company that makes these in-seat travel monitors. They will be completely lame if you have a pair of Apple glasses on. The field of view of such a monitor is less than my HoloLens, or the Magic Leap I'm wearing in my profile photo, and will be less than the Apple glasses.

Also, demand for monitors will start to go down, and demand for laptops too. Why? Well, why carry around a laptop to work on a spreadsheet or a presentation? That use case will go away when Apple comes out with its glasses. The only reason for a laptop in such a world is the keyboard and there will be plenty of keyboards you can use with spatial computing/augmented reality glasses.

Who else should worry? Magic Leap should worry. I don't get why I will buy a Magic Leap after Apple comes along with glasses that not only do spatial computing/augmented reality but also have integration with Apple's ecosystem. Just look at my last post about the Apple AirPods. It's even worse. My Apple Watch is very well integrated into Apple's AirPods. I can turn up and down volume, change songs, and do a lot more stuff with the AirPods. I doubt that Magic Leap will see the kind of integration that Apple has. In fact, I just took the photo above on my iPhone and now it's available on all my Apple devices including laptop, watch, and TV. More on that kind of integration power next year but neither Magic Leap nor Microsoft have phones in people's pockets so they can't present the same ecosystem integration.

VR doesn't benefit from integration with existing ecosystems in the same way, nor would it, even if Apple did a VR device (which is probably why Apple is ignoring VR, it sees AR as far more useful to someone who has a Watch, a TV, a Phone, and a computer than VR is). Which is why Oculus Quest is a fine and dandy product no matter what phone ecosystem you own.

Who else should worry? I hear a new completely rebuilt Siri will come with the Apple glasses. Already we are getting tastes of how useful Siri could be. When I was walking through an airport the other day my AirPods were reading texts from various people to me. I could answer back "hey Siri reply to Maryam Scoble. I will be home soon" and it did all that work without me digging my iPhone out of my pocket. This kind of integration is extremely powerful and will drive quite a few people to buy the Apple glasses to become more productive even while moving around. It also will provide a visual element that is hard to get with, say, Amazon Alexa. Quick: tell me again how many different commands you've tried with Alexa. Siri could visually show you what's possible to tell it, and you could watch it work. Something that's hard to do if you really do keep your iPhone in your pocket.

So, Google and Amazon should worry if Apple's glasses work as well as I'm hoping they will. If Siri gets fixed so that it really works well we'll be less likely to fire up Google Assistant or put Amazon Alexa devices in our homes.

Facebook does have something to worry about, though. If the Apple glasses prove popular with consumers Apple will have the ability to launch a series of hyper useful social services, from ways to work with other people, to ways to play games with other people, that could really disrupt Facebook's social services, whether Instagram for photos, or Whatsapp for Internet calls with people.

It's for this reason that Zuckerberg is investing in his own AR glasses, even as I hear Oculus is planning a new Oculus Quest set of devices for 2021. It won't be able to compete with Apple head on, so is working on its AR strategy which will require 5G to be much more ubiquitous, so think about three to five years from now.

Anyway, as Apple comes I'll probably have to rewrite this post a few times to include new losers, and new winners. After all, I bet that Magic Leap and Microsoft aren't sitting around doing nothing, either, and I expect both will have answers to Apple's entry into the market too sometime in the next 12 months.

As the 2020s open in a few weeks I've never been so excited about the range of new products that are about to come for consumers. So much change is about to happen and we're just getting little tastes so far. If you haven't bought an Oculus Quest yet you really should. It does give you a lot to think about the future and there are new games and utilities shipping every week. In fact, I'm at VMware's big event in Europe today to learn about some of the enterprise users of VR and spatial computing.

Get ready for one of the biggest tech years of our lives.