Voting Trends in the 2024
A Return to Traditional Voting Patterns?
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election day is here, early voting patterns suggest that while pandemic-era voting methods continue to have an impact, there’s also a notable return to traditional Election Day voting. With over 78 million ballots cast across 47 states and the District of Columbia, early voting is still strong. However, it's expected to constitute about 50% of total ballots this year, a significant decrease from the 70% of votes cast early or by mail in 2020. This shift provides insights into how voters are approaching this election in comparison to recent cycles, influenced by both lingering pandemic adaptations and the return to in-person voting habits.
2020 vs. 2024: What’s Changed in Early Voting?
The 2020 election saw unprecedented turnout, driven by unique circumstances. Amid the pandemic, expanded mail-in and early voting options made it easier for people to vote remotely. As a result, nearly 158.4 million Americans voted, representing a record-breaking turnout rate of 62.8% among the voting-age population. Notably, over 110 million of these votes—around 70%—were cast before Election Day, setting a new standard for early participation.
In contrast, 2024 has shown early voting to have remained popular but less dominant. This suggests that while voters still appreciate the flexibility of early voting, more are likely to vote on Election Day. Analysts estimate total turnout could still rival 2020, potentially reaching as high as 160 million voters, and early ballots will likely make up a smaller share for this election.
Key Takeaways from the 2020 Election:
These numbers demonstrate the extent to which pandemic-driven policies encouraged early voting, fundamentally changing the ways in which Americans cast their ballots.
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Projected Voter Turnout in 2024
Although early voting patterns have shifted, high voter engagement is expected to keep turnout robust in 2024, possibly close to the historic levels of 2020. In that election, turnout soared to around 66.8% of the voting-age population, the highest since 1900. By comparison, the 2016 turnout was lower, at 60.1%. While several factors could either bolster or hinder turnout this year, including shifts in state voting laws, the intensity of public interest, and the overall accessibility of the ballot, turnout expectations remain high.
Factors Likely to Impact 2024 Turnout:
Returning to Traditional Voting Patterns, with a Modern Twist
This shift back to traditional voting methods doesn’t necessarily indicate a drop in enthusiasm or engagement but rather reflects a recalibration of voter habits. While 2024 did not replicate the 70% early voting rates seen in 2020, early ballots are still expected to make up about half of all votes cast. The gradual move towards Election Day voting could suggest that Americans are eager to return to more conventional voting behaviors, even as they appreciate the option to vote early.
For those who still prefer the convenience of mail-in and early voting, these methods have remained accessible in most states. The blend of early and Election Day voting are likely here to stay, giving people more options without leaning as heavily on early voting as during the pandemic.
A Strong Turnout with Diverse Voting Methods
As Election Day is here, it’s clear that the 2024 election reflects a hybrid of old and new voting behaviors. With millions already casting their ballots and millions more expected, voter engagement appears to be as high as ever, despite the changes in early voting trends. The anticipated high turnout in this election, whether achieved early or today, Election Day, speaks to a continuing commitment among Americans to shape the future of the country through their votes.
Whether driven by convenience, preference, or a sense of civic duty, the evolution of voting behaviors shows that flexibility and participation are now cornerstones of the American electoral process going forward.