Volatility Feast
Hello and welcome back. For those with a strong interest in UK economic data, Santa has come early this week with a plethora of end of year data events wrapped, ready to be unveiled to markets throughout the week. It’s difficult to approach such UK economic news right now without a fear that it won’t bring much festive cheer for anyone reliant on a positive end to 2024 for GBP.
Somewhat strangely, despite there being a Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday, the week for the pound will be dominated by what the likes of PMI’s, CPI and Retail Sales will do to the probability of an interest rate cut in February.
Amidst the political and economic woes of The Labour Party’s stuttering start, the only thing keeping the pounds head above water has been a more hawkish MPC and that’s the risk for the pound as we enter into the festive season.
Across the pond things continue to feel slightly more optimistic and President elect Donald Trump was back in the news suggesting he was planning to make a strategic reserve for Bitcoin, sending the asset to $106,000. The dollar also remained firm, seemingly defying the typical December trends when it tends to depreciate. We still have half a month left but it appears for now the anticipation of an orderly 25 basis points cut by the Fed on Wednesday evening without the risk for big surprises in the press conference, is keeping investors locked into the greenback for lack of alternatives.
Indeed, just this weekend China’s retail sales disappointed and France were downgraded by credit rating agency Moodys. Despite the downgrade the single currency is finding a slightly firmer footing this morning, back above 1.0500 in EURUSD and we have Lagarde speaking later today which could give it further direction into the end of the year.
A slightly firmer euro and some minor positioning away from GBP ahead of this week’s risks emanating from the data releases has pulled GBPEUR back to just above 1.2000.
Alongside this weeks data we have a flurry of central bank announcements from all around the world. Indirectly this could matter for GBP and the BoE as it won’t go unnoticed if the majority of G20 policy makers continue to lean dovishly with more cuts than expected, placing more pressure on the BoE to follow suit in February and beyond.
Market Rates
GBPUSD 1.2637
GBPEUR 1.2019
EURUSD 1.0513
Brent Crude 74.24
Bitcoin $105,083.00
FTSE 8300
Monthly Chart
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