Vladimir the merciless

Hello,

Russia has, once again, played an outsized role in geopolitics this past week.

Over the weekend, Russian forces took the Ukrainian fortress city of Avdiivka , possibly breaking the wall and changing the course of the war. American legislators appealed to the White House to disclose secret information about a supposedly game-changing Russian space weapon . And Western leaders spent much of their time at the Munich Security Conference handwringing over Vladimir Putin.

But the biggest news was on the home front after opposition figure Alexei Navalny died in a prison camp - the last in a long line of Putin’s enemies to die in “mysterious circumstances”.

At least twenty high-profile Putin critics have been murdered - including journalists (such as Anna Politkovskaya, who criticised his war in Chechnya), defectors (former spies Alexander Litvinenko and Sergei Spripal were poisoned with radioactive agents in the UK), and politicians (most notably Boris Nemtsov, who opposed the annexation of Crimea and was shot within view of the Kremlin).

Navalny, however, was Putin’s greatest threat. Navalny was very popular and extremely effective. His YouTube documentary exposing Putin’s graft was viewed 129 million times. His protests would attract hundreds of thousands of citizens across the country, even in the harshest weather and with inevitable and often violent police crackdowns. Each time, Navalny would be arrested - and thousands of supporters detained. (I went to many and several times very nearly got caught up as riot police would arbitrarily charge and sweep up protestors.)

To Putin, Navalny was an existential threat. Much more than even the rogue mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin, who he also had killed after his “march on Moscow”. Navalny not only attacked Putin’s integrity and exposed, as he liked to say, that the emperor had no clothes. More than that, he represented an alternative vision to Putin's system and could mobilise the masses.

The question now is whether a dead Navalny - in becoming a martyr or “immortal”, in the words of the author Boris Akunin - will represent a greater threat to Putin than when he was alive.

Optimists, like Akunin, believe so. Pessimists, however, say that with his most strident opponents now living abroad, Putin’s grip on power seems firmer than ever. And with Navalny’s death, the last hope for change has now been extinguished.

Either way, Navalny’s death will overshadow Russia’s presidential election next month.

Beyond Navalny, Putin blocked the anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin from running. Nadezhdin had collected more than the requisite number of signatures to run but the electoral authority claimed more than 15% were flawed. Another candidate, the hyper-nationalist Igor Girkin, has been imprisoned. And now there is nobody on the ticket who even feigns opposition.

An election much easier to predict than just about any other. And an election essentially without consequence. Putin will continue to rule and there will be few pressures to change the fundamental course of Russia's foreign policy - including on Ukraine.

To access all our stories from the past week, please click through the links in our digest below.

All the best

Damien

CEO & Partner

Geopolitical Strategy

Europe

• Russia: G7 ministers held a minute's silence Saturday for Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, who died in a prison camp. Russia took control of Avdiivka. Volodymyr Zelensky blamed an "artificial deficit" of arms. Joe Biden blamed Congress. Analysis .
• Britain: Labour overturned Tory majorities in two by-elections Thursday. Inflation steadied at 4% in January, but GDP fell 0.3% in the December quarter, confirming a recession. Retailers warned of a tea shortage due to Red Sea disruptions. Analysis .
• Germany: Germany became the world's third-biggest economy after Japan slipped into recession Thursday. Berlin said defence spending would hit 2.01% of GDP in 2024. Microsoft said it would invest €3.2 billion in Germany over the next two years. Analysis .
• Poland: Poland's president and prime minister will visit next month, the White House said Thursday. Prime Minister Donald Tusk upended a press briefing with President Andrzej Duda, accusing the previous government (and Duda's party) of spying. Analysis .
• Ukraine, Russia: Oleksandr Syrsky said Wednesday the situation in Avdiivka, near Donetsk, was "extremely complex" amid reports that Russia had killed hundreds of elite Ukrainian reinforcements via bombing raids before they had reached the frontline. Analysis .
• Estonia: Moscow placed Estonia’s prime minister on a wanted list Tuesday for destroying Soviet monuments. The Kremlin was preparing for a military confrontation with the West in the next ten years, Estonia's foreign intelligence service said. Analysis .

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Americas

• United States: Trump told supporters on Saturday a $355 million fine for overstating his wealth was "election interference". Producer prices rose 0.9% year-on-year in January, confounding rate cut hopes. Consumer prices came in at 3.1% y-o-y Tuesday. Analysis .
• United States, Russia: The White House confirmed reports Thursday Russia was building anti-satellite weapons in violation of international law. Speaker Mike Johnson said Congress had been aware of the threat for weeks and a response should be immediate. Analysis .
• United States: Democrat Tom Suozzi was re-elected to his old seat on Tuesday, further narrowing the Republican House majority. Speaker Mike Johnson said he wanted to meet Joe Biden before considering the Senate's national security package. Analysis .
• Argentina: David Cameron said the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands was not for discussion, ahead of the first ministerial visit to the territory since 2016. David Cameron will also travel to Paraguay and the G20 foreign ministers' meeting in Brazil. Analysis .

Middle East

• The Caucasus: The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan would "meet soon" after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with the countries' leaders on Sunday. Azerbaijan was planning "a full-scale war", Armenia's prime minister claimed Thursday. Analysis .
• Turkey: Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Egyptian counterpart turned a "new leaf" Wednesday during the president's first visit in a decade. Erdogan met the prime minister of Iraq's Kurdistan region Tuesday. He will host Vladimir Putin next month. Analysis .
• Israel, Lebanon: Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed nine civilians Wednesday after rocket fire in Israel's north killed a soldier. The fighting is among the fiercest along the border since the war in Gaza began. Hezbollah has vowed retaliation. Analysis .
• Israel, Palestine: Scores were killed amid the rescue of two Israeli hostages early Monday in Rafah. Joe Biden warned Israel against invading the southern Gaza city without a plan for civilian safety. A Dutch court banned the export of F-35 parts to Israel. Analysis .
• United Arab Emirates: The World Governments Summit opened Monday, with Turkey, Qatar and India named guests of honour and keynotes prepared from Serbia, Zimbabwe and Kyrgyzstan among others. Torrential rain fell in Dubai after cloud-seeding flights. Analysis .
• Georgia: Georgia's parliament approved Irakli Kobakhidze as its new prime minister, 84-10, on Thursday. Kobakhidze appointed deputies and held his first cabinet meeting Monday, promising to fight corruption and continue to seek EU accession. Analysis .

Emailed each weekday at 5am Eastern (9am GMT), Geopolitical Dispatch goes beyond the news to outline the implications. With the brevity of a media digest, but the depth of an intelligence assessment, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you the strategic framing and situational awareness to stay ahead in a changing world.

Africa

• Ethiopia, Somalia: Somalia's president accused Ethiopia Saturday of trying to annex part of the territory of Somaliland. Attending an African Union summit, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud also accused Ethiopia of trying to block his access to the venue. Analysis .
• DRC: Two South African soldiers were killed in Congo’s east, Pretoria said Thursday. Elsewhere, 12 were killed at a gold mine. Thousands protested in Kinshasa Monday over Western support for Rwanda, which backs Congolese rebel groups. Analysis .

Asia

• North Korea: Kim Jong Un oversaw cruise missile tests Wednesday, the latest provocation ahead of the South's elections in April. Japanese media said Fumio Kishida was mulling a visit to Seoul. The Financial Times said he wanted to visit the North. Analysis .
• Philippines: The death toll from a Mindanao landslide reached 68 on Monday following floods on 6 February. Vice President Sara Duterte said Wednesday she had not spoken to her father about any International Criminal Court arrest warrant. Analysis .
• Indonesia: Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, a former general, was on course to win over 50% of Indonesia's presidential vote Wednesday evening, ahead of his nearest challenger by almost 30 points. Official results will be published in March. Analysis .
• Pakistan: Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League appointed ex-prime minister Shehbaz Sharif to lead a new coalition government late Tuesday. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan People’s Party said it would give support from the outside. Analysis .
• India: At least five were killed in riots after authorities demolished a mosque in the northern town of Haldwani on Thursday. Police blocked roads to New Delhi on Monday as mostly Punjabi farmers marched to demand promised crop prices. Analysis .
• Cambodia: Cambodia reported the death of a nine-year-old from bird flu on Monday, with his brother also testing positive. Several US states reported avian influenza in farms last week. The UK reported a "catastrophic" decline in seabird numbers. Analysis .

Pacific

• Solomon Islands: Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare outlined his pitch for elections expected in April. His "look North" strategy would double down on ties to China. The opposition said Wednesday it wanted Honiara's security pact with Beijing reviewed. Analysis .

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