Vitamins |Market inquiries quiet amid hand-to-mouth purchases dominating the market
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Key points
Overall market has been stable but weak in China. Affected by myriads of factors, upstream factories are strongly inclined to uphold their quotations. Burdened with the cash flow pressure caused by stocking, distributors have been highly active in destocking. Hand-to-mouth purchases are dominating the market. The downstream demand has been low, inquiries have been quiet and transactions have been stagnant. Prices for most products have been stable but?weak or even trended downwards for certain products in some regions. Actual orders are mainly based on negotiations. Attention should be paid to production and delivery status of the factories.
Most vitamin products are at a disadvantage in Europe.
The results of an online voting initiated by Effamall.com last week showed?that 48% of participants predicted a price increase?in?Nicotinamide, 26% forecast?a drop, and 26% estimated a stable trend for a while.
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Price Update
*Note:?RMB prices exclude VAT rebates for export.
Calculation Formula: RMB price/exchange rate/ (100%+ 13% for VAT rebates)
Exchange rate on 23/11/2022:?USD/RMB?7.1667?EUR/RMB?7.3378
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Company news
CFT data show that corn prices have been stable in?port areas, North China, South China and Northeast China except for certain regions where the prices have increased slightly.
<Source: Feedtrade?????Date: 23/11/2022>
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Terminals and manufacturers at all levels have come back to work from the bustling EuroTier 2022, which has just finished.
After the CPHI 2022 in Frankfurt, one manufacturer sent a letter to the market, which has produced little impact. The industry generally believed?the same would happen after a second letter was published by the manufacturer on the first Monday after EuroTier 2022. However, on the contrary the second letter has brought the industry a lot of surprises.
The manufacturer acknowledged that the first letter targeting Vitamin B had?not aroused much market reaction, and the second letter focusing on Vitamin A and Vitamin E was?a follow-up and reaffirmation of the ideas in the first letter.
The market was surprised, however,?as the manufacturer clearly conveyed the promise?to the market during the CPHI 2022?that the prices of Vitamin A and Vitamin E would maintain at the current level. However, just two weeks later, the same manufacturer issued a?notice of price?increase. This indicates?that the manufacturer is under great pressure of high?cost?and is eager to increase price.
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Vitamin A
In China, demand has been weak, inquiry has become average, prices have remained stable and low in certain regions, and the transactions have been sluggish.
In Europe, prices have gone up slightly and the inquiries have been slightly more active. The market is speculating?the intention of the second letter and?its?likely impact.
l?The demand for Q1 2023 is still available.
l?The Vitamin A production of DSM has suspended in January and February 2023. Even if it is resumed in March 2023, the products will not be delivered until early April 2023 at the earliest.
l?BASF has confirmed their return to the market.
l?The costs of another European manufacturer are higher than their offers.
l?Chinese manufacturers are keen?to destock at low prices and take up more market share.
Vitamin E
In China, the market prices have been stable and weak but dropped in certain regions based on different brands and production dates. The downstream demand has been low and the terminals have taken hand-to-mouth purchases.
In Europe, the market prices have increased marginally. According to the second letter, the Vitamin E output of the European manufacturer will be affected significantly due to the production reduction of raw materials.
l?Global overcapacity of?Vitamin E
l?Current price?level?has?offered satisfactory profits for manufacturers?in the world.
l?One leading Chinese manufacturer has lost a large number of contracts for Q1 & Q2 2022 due to strategic reasons, and they intend to change their strategy for Q3 & Q4 2022 to regain their?European market share.
l?The demand in Chinese market has remained weak.
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Vitamin D3
In China market, prices have remained stable but low. Dealers have been active in destocking. Demand and inquiry have been average.
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In Europe, there has been no change in pricing.
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Calcium Pantothenate
In China, the market prices have stabilized after trending downwards drastically. The overall prices have been stable with slight fluctuations and the demand is low.
In Europe, the market price has stabilized at EUR22-25/kg.?As there is a price difference between the Chinese and European market, the new offers of some brands with CIF European port are trending downwards. To avoid the risks, the terminals are still taking hand-to-mouth purchases.
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Vitamin B1
In China, impacted by the elevated cost, factories tend strongly to uphold their quotations while downstream demand has been low and inquiry has been average, leading to steady and weak prices as a result.
European market prices have remained unchanged at?EUR17-17.5/kg.
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Vitamin B2
In China, demand is low. The overall quotations have been stable but dropped in certain regions based on different brands and production dates.
In European market, the price has increased marginally because of?the cost increase of energy and raw materials. Due to the strain restrictions,?the supply has been?monopolized by the?European manufacturers. As the price was low previously, the terminal’s stocks available are not high. After DSM's second letter was sent, the market price has immediately been pushed up to EUR16/kg or above.
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Vitamin K3
In China, the market prices have been steady. The demand has been average and inquiry has been sluggish. Impacted by the tight supply of raw materials, some factories have tended to uphold their offers as a result. The European market prices have slipped slightly to?EUR24.5-27/kg.
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Biotin
Inquiry has been average and transaction prices have been flat at low level in China.
In Europe, the prices for pure product have?risen to EUR230/kg. Biotin 2% prices have stayed at?EUR5.3-5.5/kg.
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Choline Chloride
In China, as the price of trimethylamine has fluctuated at high level, Choline Chloride factories have adjusted their offers as a result. Attention should be paid to any further cost change and production & delivery performance.
In European market, impacted by the price increase of cho chl 75% (liquid), the prices of European branded cho chl 70% have stayed high at EUR2.35/kg. The exchange rate has played a great impact on the euro price for products with Chinese brands. European terminals have begun to satisfy their demand for Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. The spot price in Europe is DDP EUR1.8-2.1/kg with a small number of stocks available. For cho chl 75%, the prices have stayed at EUR1.9-2.0/kg for Q4 2022 and the prices for Q1 2023 are being negotiated.
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Other news
Freight
Drought is keeping the Mississippi River at historically low water levels, tying up barge capacity and extending the southbound grain season.
<Source:?The Journal of Commerce online??Date: 22/11/2022>
<Source: Sina Finance>
Note: Global?futures data is “As of yesterday” due to time difference
<Source: Investing.com>
Note: Data for items with “*” is “As of yesterday” due to time difference.
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