COVID-19 spread speed (20 march)
Germany will close most schools to slow Coronavirus spread, starting this Monday (2020-03-15) until after the Easter holiday in April.
Slowing down the spread of the Coronavirus has the highest priority, and some countries are doing a good job establishing measures.
update: 2019-03-20
The chart shows the confirmed infection numbers for some countries in the logarithmic domain. The slope of the curves gives a good indicator of the trend of a country, the lower the slope the less the spread speed.
For example, South Korea does a great job of slowing down the rate; Singapore and Japan did even prevent an acceleration right at the beginning. (China, not shown here, is on a good track, too)
Most of the European countries and the US show still a sharp slope, resulting in 3-4 days doubling rates. Note that all established measures to slow down the spread have a lag of up to 14 days. (I will update the picture)
Let us all support the current call to show solidarity with more vulnerable groups and limit non-essential social contact, wash hands more, and not attend large gatherings. I fully support the trusted information and advice given by the Robert Koch Institute, here in Germany.
Don't panic, it is possible, see South Korea, there the doubling rate is currently at 40 to 50 days, which gives the health system, researchers, companies and us all more flexibility to organize everything.
Maybe, I have to give my data science lecture remotely this summer term, as well. Depending on students' interests, I will choose COVID-19 life data to practice data modeling, visualizations, and interpretations.
- Data source via 2019 Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (2019-nCoV) Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE
- Used Python packages (pandas, plot.ly, scipy)
- Data are smoothed via scipy.signal. savgol_filter (5 days window, 1 order polynomial), doubling time calculation (5 days window)
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All states within Germany
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/KKyv7/1/
source: Robert Koch Institute (via webscraping)
Research Software Engineer
4 年https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
Content Director @ Cash Flow AI | Creative Strategist | Growth Catalyst | Techno Optimist
5 年Thanks for sharing Frank! Like others I am really curious about how specific political decisions may have led to the difference of slope curves or if this could relate to differences in biology/physiology ..
CEO & Founder of Masento Group a business best known for Delivering World Class SAP & D&A Talent Solutions / Building successful Sales Teams - I'M HIRING!
5 年It’s a mystery why UK seems so slow on the uptake of strict measures. Any thoughts?
Senior Proposal Manager @ Hays Talent Solutions
5 年Sehr interessant Frank!
Senior Director of Product Management | SaaS Leadership & Thought Leader in Process Mining | Driving Customer Value through Process Intelligence Innovation in ARIS | Ex-DFKI (AI Research)
5 年Worth reading article and good idea to use the Covid-19 data set in your upcoming lecture!