Vision Creates The Future

“When I dare to be powerful, to use my strength in the service of my vision, then it becomes less and less important whether I am afraid.”― Audre Lorde

The Markets:

Did you hear that? That was the market reacting to a vision of the future. Of course, optimism is contagious. When we begin to feel better about our world, we feel unstoppable. The US Federal Reserve sees rate cuts. Switzerland is the first nation to cut interest rates. Canada has to do the same; you can make all the arguments as to why not, when 26% of inflation is interest rates. Waiting to hear consumers scream uncle or crush businesses before changes are made would be irresponsible! Speaking of vision...NVIDIA, it's not about the stock price. It's about what they introduced to the market this week. Second, the US has made a serious move to increase the sale of EVs, and so has the EU. The new economy is about to change the world for the better. It's time to leave behind our grandfathers' and great-grandfathers' economies; they had their time. Thank them and move on. However, if you hear a thud, it's the market losing hope in the future, and high-interest rates will do that.

Personal Log: Visionaries and Wheels

The first automobile show was held in 1900 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Cars were still a mysterious contraption that was too expensive compared to a horse and buggy on the lower end; you could buy a reliable rig for about $350; of course, a carriage and team of horses could run you $700, but a higher-end model rig could be $1,800. Yet the stench in the city was unbearable. Residents were worried about disease and tainted water supply. Horses would be left dying on the streets and become infested. And certainly, the waste horses left behind had to be cleaned daily. It was bad for the animals and humans.

By 1904, you could buy some of the earlier gas model vehicles for between $1,800 to $6,000; a lot depended on how fancy you wanted it, and power would cost you more. Would that be 11HP or 25HP? But wait, you could also buy a steam vehicle and, believe it or not, an Electric one that could get 100 Miles on a charge. They were also working on batteries to triple the range. These EVs were mostly bought for wives of the wealthy and professionals like doctors who wouldn't have time to heat up a steam-powered one or crank a motor to start.

So, what made consumers buy automobiles? Cars represented a cleaner solution. However, it wasn't until about the 1920s that prices started to come down, infrastructure improved, and traffic lights were installed. Adoption was swift.

By the 1950s and 1960s, smog was a problem that led to air quality standards and vehicle emission regulations. In the 1950s, Charles David Keeling measured the rise of CO2 levels, but at the time, no association was made with cars. It wasn't until 1970 that greenhouse gas emissions were associated with gas-burning vehicles. 1970 April 22nd, was also the first Earth Day, marking human awareness of our impact on the planet. Ford and GM presumably knew about the impact of emissions on the climate as early as the 1960s and the oil companies around the same time. They were all defensive in nature.

The problem for the planet is that old industries are slow to innovate and are driven by our human resistance to change. Will we change? We did it from horse and buggy to cars as prices came down. And we did in other instances, consumers embraced ATMs when they realized their convenience. We moved from landlines to mobile phones. We could have readily accepted EVs as they did in the 1920s; once again, it is about human choices and a path of least resistance. Had we pursued EVs one hundred years ago, perhaps today, we would have been driving on hydrogen or fusion. One thing is for certain. Resistance to change doesn't allow for progress and comes with a price on many levels.

Retailing This Week: Midlife Brand Crisis

Is there such a thing as a mid-life brand crisis? Yes, of course, there is. And what are the signs? There are several on the IRG list when we look at brands. Declining consumer engagement, stagnant or declining sales, lack of innovation, negative social media sentiment, and loss in market share are driven by the inability to adapt, ignoring consumer feedback, inconsistent brand messaging, and neglecting to advance a technology-first focus. Now we are back to the premise of how visions can be lost. Signs that brands are making mistakes are below.

Is Lululemon going to begin chasing its past successes because it has grown as far as it can? Their stock price dropped dramatically (Yahoo Finance), which may be what investors see or think is giving them the jitters. However, this brand is 26 years old, and it is just about the time you can encounter a midlife brand crisis. I also contend that the Mirror acquisition was a colossal failure and expense.

耐克 is 60, and it's feared that the brand is experiencing a lag in vision. Some believe that it has fallen behind on innovation CNBC. However, competition is also lurking in the background with brands like HOKA and On Running.

阿迪达斯 is 74 years old, and it has made a series of brand mistakes, primarily driven by Yeezy. If a brand can't stand on its own attributes and needs influencers and celebrities. Is this like a drug dependency on discounts which eventually backfires because they become less effective over time because expectations increase?

Unfortunately, I could not attend Shoptalk this week because of client commitments and board meetings. I would like to see and hear what the folks from RETHINK Retail have for updates. This year, I focus on AI and the transformations companies must make as they bring their data to life. I am making rounds with technology companies to hear how they are helping businesses adapt and adopt.

Technology: Data, AI, and EVs

Next Generation Computing Power

英伟达 their website: Let me be very clear...I hold no stock in this company nor am I paid by them. It is what they represent to the next wave of technological advancement that should intrigue us. Their graphic processing units (GPUs) intrigue us and the scale at which they can help companies build their AI factories, such as your factory. Powerful computing power is being created with capabilities that will take AI and robotics to new levels and likely new discoveries on how to use this technology. To better understand the implications and scope of this, Read this press release! They will revolutionize and accelerate companies' ability to compete with AI at the lead. Not to forget the ability to develop an omniverse of manufacturing facilities. We have two choices: embrace the future or miss out.

Data: Small Businesses

Humans produce and consume between 1.0 and 2.5 Megabytes per second, depending on where you get your research. Now, if you owned a small business and could access some of this data to build your business, how would it help you? A lot! It won't be as good as your original data, but it would be a powerful beginning called aggregate data, most likely something you would find where AI as a service (AIaaS) is provided. However, all of this becomes a beginning. Research shows that a small business likely collects a lot of text data. If they could build a strong omnichannel, they could collect a lot more data related to the content they share and visit websites—the more sophisticated the system, the greater the opportunity to have more powerful output from an AI system. How many small businesses are using AI? About 23% say that they are and perform better than their peers who don't. Over time, as AI becomes ubiquitous, there will be more of a level playing field initially. However, those with the ability to collect a lot more data will likely beat their relative competitors in the long run with better strategies and innovations.

EVs: Are set to accelerate

The New York Times reports that the Biden administration has set rules for eliminating gas vehicles by 2032. Reuters reports that the EU has set a goal and timeline to eliminate CO2-emitting vehicles. The EU already has 8.0 Million vehicles roaming its roads. In China, production lines for gas cars have almost stopped. China's appetite for EVs is in decline, but you can blame their economy. It is simply softening. They have found another home...the EU. There is no question that the global economy has to settle, and interest rates must drop for EV sales to pick up again. Cheaper Chinese models will arrive in NA; however, with tariffs and safety standards, they will not be less expensive than US models.

Politics: Whose Vision Is Creating The Future

Populist politics is filled with rhetoric and tough guy talk rather than a clear future vision. We all hear promises of restoring the past and getting rid of this or that. But what past? Who's? At what cost? How many setbacks? Who pays the price? Nations must be competitive above all else. If we need anything by way of a vision, it's an honest adult conversation about where we are, what has to change, and what we need to do to get there. Imagine a vision with a plan. That adult conversation is what many politicians would rather not have with you. However, we should prefer the facts over rhetoric or a don't worry statement, with a wink and a promise that we've got it under control.

The future needs a kind of plan that also gives some indication of what our roles will be in the future. How should we be educated, and for what? Where will the best-paying jobs be? I have found all governments benign in this area. We are most likely to be lied to by all parties, even those telling us that the other guy is lying. I believe that for the future of a nation to be secure, a great place to start is with transparency on everything from climate change, AI, the impact of robots, EVs, how some natural resources will change, and what it will take to build a competitive nation. There is no future without us knowing why we should invest in this vision, from manufacturing to agriculture, finance, and technology. What's the plan? I know one thing: the status quo to keep old industries working will not keep us competitive, not when geopolitics is clearly unstable.

Economy: Rethinking inflation thresholds will take vision

I have argued, as you know, that interest rates are too high and can cause an avalanche for consumers and businesses, which is unnecessary. I also believe Central Banks were late to the party and acted aggressively. In this excellent article by The Logic Read this Article here. However, my argument stems from the fast-paced growth we need from technology to remain competitive globally.

In an interview, the Bank of Canada governor acknowledged that they need to revisit their threshold of 2.0%. We must understand that Canada as a nation will fall further behind because of past and present policies, and they were not simply because of the pandemic; that didn't help on its own. It is also the economic aftermath of inflation driven by greed, and there was plenty of it globally.

The article also comments on a Desjardins report, highlighting that the CPI Trim underestimates the rate at which inflation is declining. Now, if you've adopted or created the models that measure inflation, this can be where egos are being tested as well. Nevertheless, the global economy is changing fast, and international competition is evolving faster. Access to affordable capital to invest in technological growth and advancement will make nations more competitive. The current state is not; inflation has been wrestled and grounded, and if banks are saying the same thing, then we need to rethink these thresholds and park our egos because we need a new vision.

Lack of visionary leadership creates resistance to change

Sometimes, leaders get stuck by outdated beliefs and values, leading to resistance to change that they may deem as a threat to themselves. Of course, I am not referring to CEOs only. It happens at all levels. The first sign of organizational resistance to change is Silos and Fiefdoms with many barriers, intentional and unintentional. Then, when change is needed, it becomes difficult, and the consultants are called in. Management may say they have a challenge with employees. Still, the reality is that they have created a cultural problem because there is a lack of visionary leadership at senior levels that does not focus on the future.

What do experts say about this? Read this Harvard Business Review article

At the end of the day: Vision Starts With A Voice

If you can imagine for a moment how well-wired we humans are, the human voice is the most marvelous mechanism in the universe. We think and speak with emotion and power to inspire, launch, and bring to life dreams and brands as we create music with instruments, and our voices can be the most inspirational instruments. They were long before we made instruments. If a brand were a song, what song does your brand sing, and how many customers sing along?

But a little science to make this interesting is the unified field theory, which attempts to make sense of the forces and relationships between elementary particles using a single theoretical framework; that's exactly what many try to do with brands: bring them to life and explain how that life comes to fruition and a brand soars with all its theoretical framework. Remarkably that's how music comes together; sounds and our voices create melodies and lyrics, and a hit is born. That's also how our voices launch a following! No different for a retail brand. Have you ever heard the sound of a brand assembling itself? It is like a song. When your brand gets the music and lyrics right, you will have a following looking to sing with you. Now click here and listen to the sounds of a brand that comes to life with its own theoretical framework. If you can do this, your brand will be unstoppable.

Be inspired by your life, and don't listen to anyone saying you don't belong or fit in. Grab the world by the tail, and don't let it go; you are just as entitled as anyone else.

Thank you for reading this week's issue of The Business Brief

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