The Virtuous Cycle of Ultra-Low-Cost Access to Space (ULCATS)
In Spring 2017, under the leadership of Steve Kwast , the United States Air Force FAST Space report predicted that if America would jump start the reusable launch industry, we would enter a virtuous cycle of ever-lower launch costs.
It is happening as predicted.
Step 1 of the virtuous cycle was first relaunch of a Falcon 9 first stage on March 30, 2017.
Step 3 as predicted was the beginning of big LEO constellations (first batch of 60 Starlinks was May 2019) and personal human spaceflight …. We saw this start on Crewed Dragon began in Sep 2021 (Polaris 1) followed an April 2022 Axion mission (Ax-1) to ISS.
Step 4 check. ?Now over 100 flights a year.
Step 7 check. Lots of growth in space industry.
Step 8 check. Many companies are getting funding for innovative new capabilities.?
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Step 9 check. New innovations like commercial SAR, and satellite-direct-to-phone.
Step 10 … smallsat innovations are diffusing into many new areas.? Many parts of USG now funding big LEO constellations of smallsats … the debate over disaggregation and proliferated architectures in DOD has ended, and launch rates are up even further.? China and Europe are now funding big LEO constellations as well.
Finally, Step 12 is happening with funding for next generation of reusables … Rocket Lab Neutron, Stoke Space , Blue Origin New Glenn Project Jarvis, Relativity Space Terran R, and of course SpaceX StarShip.
CONCLUSION:? We have completed the first turn of the ULCATS virtuous cycle.?
Loren Grush Eric Berger Lori Garver Phil McAlister Rick Tumlinson Jim Muncy Michael Mealling Alan Lindenmoyer Clay Mowry Scott Pace Jim Bridenstine Dan Rasky A.C. Charania Douglas Loverro Greg Autry Robert Walker Steve Isakowitz Ryan Whitley Peter Garretson Bhavya Lal Charity Weeden Alexander Salter Tony DeTora Berin Szóka James Dunstan Jeff Greason Courtney Stadd Bill "Burners" Bruner Shana Dale Namrata Goswami John Olson Casey Handmer Hoyt Davidson Jess Sponable
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3 周Charles, thanks for sharing!
We were talking about this with Gordon Woodcock and others at least back in 1984.
Space Czar at UCF. Visiting Prof Imperial College London. Author: Red Moon Rising & A New Entrepreneurial Dynamic. Forbes Science Contributor.
1 个月Launch is the most fundamental driver of the space economy. It operates in much the same way that the microprocessor cost / performance curve drove our tech booms. We now see that same powerful combo of declining costs and increasing performance unlocking new space applications that were previously out of reach (microgravity manufacturing, resources, tourism). Your tireless efforts for ULCATS has not gone unnoticed Charles. Thanks for the dedication to that.
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