The vipers fang each other as Putin's "Peter the great " emulation in Ukraine turns into geostrategic disaster. Prigozhin a contender? China watches
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On the rare occasions when Putin has traveled abroad since launching the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, his interactions with other heads of state have tended to underline his reduced status. For years, Putin was notorious for making world leaders such as Angela Merkel, Donald Trump, and Pope Francis wait while he arrived hours after the appointed time. With his position seriously undermined by the disastrous war in Ukraine, Putin is now the one doing the waiting. During a September 2022 conference in Uzbekistan, the leaders of Turkey, Azerbaijan, India, and Kyrgyzstan?all left Putin standing?as they arrived fashionably late for bilateral meetings.
Putin’s geopolitical isolation looks even uglier when compared to the remarkable recent international ascent of his nemesis, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In recent weeks, Zelenskyy has been lionized during high-profile visits to Rome, Berlin, Paris, and London; he has grabbed the headlines at the Arab League summit in Saudi Arabia and was the center of attention at the G7 summit in Japan. While everyone apparently wants to be seen alongside the Ukrainian leader, very few appear eager to stand with Putin.
This is not just a problem for Putin alone. Indeed, the toxicity engulfing his personal reputation has also led to Russia’s international ostracism
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It is going to heat up, due to this factor: Prigozhin bids for the throne
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In this way, Prigozhin is echoing in some ways the approach of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran in his successful bid for the presidency in 2005 when he campaigned against elite corruption on the basis of nationalist populism and military veterans from the Iran-Iraq War who felt that their sacrifices had never been properly rewarded.?
It is hard to avoid the impression from all this that Prigozhin may be positioning himself to try to succeed Putin as president. This is a colossal risk to take, if Putin decides instead to get rid of Prigozhin. Why is he taking it?
One element probably is genuine fury on the part of Prigozhin and his soldiers at the way in which their lives have been thrown away by the incompetence, jealousy and hostility to Wagner of the leaders of the Defense Ministry and the High Command, including perhaps deliberately sacrificing them in the bloody struggle of attrition for Bakhmut, in order to weaken them as a force. It is hard to imagine Prigozhin reading the Bible, but he might want to look up Samuel 2,11: “Ye shall set Uriah the Hittite in the forefront of the hottest battle, and retire ye from him that he may be smitten and die.”
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Prigozhin is trying to take the monikor of anti corruption savior of the nation. Will this work?
Doubtful
Meanwhile China watches and the rampant chaos is making Beijing plans for the incorporation of Siberia as a new Chinese economic zone of influence more likely by the day
Peter the Great would be rolling in his grave if he saw the show. Guaranteed.
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Prigozhin erupts: Has a Russian succession struggle begun?
The Wagner chief’s furious attack on elites and the war could portend turmoil with potential to extend well beyond Moscow.
MAY 31, 2023
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Is the post-Putin era in Russia at hand? Probably not yet, barring an unlikely collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine. But a furious public attack on Russia’s entire war effort and its elites by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the private Russian militia group “Wagner,” is a sign that some Russian factions are beginning to position themselves for a struggle over who might succeed the Kremlin leader.?
Should the struggle end in fighting, Prigozhin, as the commander of a private army, may be in a strong position. Wagner has also just gained new prestige after taking the lead in the bloody and long-drawn-out, but ultimately successful battle for the town of Bakhmut.
Prigozhin has long been critical of Russia’s military leadership, complaining publicly about its incompetence and corruption, and contrasting its purported passivity and incompetence to what he portrays as Wagner’s patriotism and bravery in defending the motherland’s interests in Ukraine, Syria, and beyond.?
But his?recent interview?on the internet channel Telegram marks a drastic escalation and extension of his long-standing attacks on Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the high military command. He is now attacking the entire conduct of the war in Ukraine and declaring its results to date to have been a disastrous failure. This comes very close to a direct attack on Putin, even if he does not criticize the Russian leader by name, and declares: “My political credo is: I love my homeland, I obey Putin, I don’t care about Shoigu, we will continue to fight [in Ukraine].”
In Prigozhin’s words:
“The Special Military Operation was launched for the sake of ‘denazification,’ and we have made Ukraine a nation that is known throughout the world. They now look like the Greeks or Romans of ancient times. As for [our demand for] ’demilitarization’ of Ukraine: if at the beginning of the SCO the Ukrainians had maybe 500 tanks, now they have five thousand of them. If then they had 20 thousand skillful fighters, now they have 400 thousand. So how did we demilitarize it? It turns out that it was we, on the contrary, who the hell knows how, who have militarized Ukraine.”
Condemning Shoigu and the Chief of the General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, by name, Prigozhin repeated his previous calls for their replacement:
“The main problem is in Shoigu and Gerasimov. These are two people who, by their decisions, blocked everything for us, despite the President’s statement that there are enough shells. If today [General Mikhail] Mizintsev [now serving with Wagner] becomes Minister of Defense, and [former commander in Ukraine General Sergei] Surovikin becomes Chief of the General Staff, then this would be a normal structure.”
Prigozhin’s attack on Shoigu and Gerasimov is not new. What is new is now extending this into a ferocious criticism of the Russian elites in general. He said that the children of the elites are “shaking their tails on beaches” while the children of ordinary Russian families are dying.?
“This bifurcation [of society into rich and poor] can end as in 1917 with a revolution, when first the soldiers stand up, and after that their loved ones stand up…. The fatness of the children of the elite will end with people lifting them on pitchforks. I recommend to the elite of the Russian Federation: ‘You sons of bitches, gather your kids, send them to war, and when you go to their funerals, then people will say, now everything is fair.’”
In taking this line, Prigozhin appears to be seeking the anti-corruption mantle of Alexei Navalny, the opposition figure imprisoned in Russia since 2021. Unlike Navalny, who has attempted to combine his populist appeal with strong support from the United States and Europe, Prigozhin is targeting elite corruption from the standpoint of the nationalist right. He seems to calculate, unlike many people promoting Navalny and “democratization” in general, that you must run for president of Russia with Russian, not American, support.
In this way, Prigozhin is echoing in some ways the approach of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Iran in his successful bid for the presidency in 2005 when he campaigned against elite corruption on the basis of nationalist populism and military veterans from the Iran-Iraq War who felt that their sacrifices had never been properly rewarded.?
It is hard to avoid the impression from all this that Prigozhin may be positioning himself to try to succeed Putin as president. This is a colossal risk to take, if Putin decides instead to get rid of Prigozhin. Why is he taking it?
One element probably is genuine fury on the part of Prigozhin and his soldiers at the way in which their lives have been thrown away by the incompetence, jealousy and hostility to Wagner of the leaders of the Defense Ministry and the High Command, including perhaps deliberately sacrificing them in the bloody struggle of attrition for Bakhmut, in order to weaken them as a force. It is hard to imagine Prigozhin reading the Bible, but he might want to look up Samuel 2,11: “Ye shall set Uriah the Hittite in the forefront of the hottest battle, and retire ye from him that he may be smitten and die.”
领英推荐
It may also be, however, that the internal troubles of the Putin regime, after more than a year of failures in Ukraine, may be much deeper than they appear on the surface. Perhaps Putin may even be considering not running in the presidential elections scheduled for March 2024, and (like Yeltsin when he handed the office over to Putin in 1999) stepping down in favor of a chosen successor.
If so, given the deep and open hostility that has grown up between Prigozhin and other elements of Putin’s circle, Prigozhin would find himself in deadly personal danger should Putin hand over the presidency to Shoigu or Patrushev. Like Richard III on the death of his brother King Edward, he may feel that he has no option but to strike first by gathering as much popular support as possible through appeals to very widespread public resentment at official corruption and growing disquiet about the situation in Ukraine (disquiet that does not want surrender, but is deeply unhappy with how the war has been conducted).
If this analysis is correct, then Russia could be headed towards serious turmoil. While many in the West would welcome such a development, we should also be aware of the severe risks and dangers that would come from the disintegration of the Russian state. Not only would this threaten immense dangers for the world, including Russian loss of control of its nuclear weapons and a new refugee crisis, but China would almost certainly feel compelled to step in to hold the state together. If the result of Russia’s partial collapse was to bring China to the eastern borders of Europe, that would hardly be to the advantage of the West.
And if the choice of successor to Putin really becomes that between President Prigozhin and President Patrushev, would either of these be any improvement on Putin himself? As an old Russian joke about the difference between an optimist and a pessimist should remind us, however bad things are in Russia, they can always get worse.
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whereas
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Russia’s new reality: Less Peter the Great, more Putin the Pariah
FILTER RESULTS
Will Vladimir Putin dare to visit the BRICS summit in South Africa this August? In previous years, his attendance would have been taken for granted, but?war crimes charges?brought by the International Criminal Court in March 2023 are fueling speculation that he could face arrest if he decides to risk the trip. As a signatory to the Rome Statute that established the ICC, South Africa is technically obliged to arrest Putin.
Reports this week suggest the South African government may be seeking to bypass its obligations to the ICC by granting all summit participants diplomatic immunity, but officials also?stressed?that immunity “does not override any warrant that may have been issued by any international tribunal against any attendee of the conference.” Even if Putin receives assurances that he will not be detained in Cape Town itself, traveling to the summit would involve considerable uncertainty due to the potential for emergency landings in numerous other jurisdictions where apprehension would be possible.
Many commentators still regard the entire notion of arresting Vladimir Putin as somewhat far-fetched. Nevertheless, the fact that his travel plans are now being shaped by the likelihood of detention speaks volumes about the Russian dictator’s dramatic fall from grace. Ten years ago, Putin was a member of the elite G8 group of world leaders and a permanent fixture at the top table of international affairs. Today, he is a wanted war crimes suspect who cannot leave his own country without first checking that he will not end up in jail.
On the rare occasions when Putin has traveled abroad since launching the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, his interactions with other heads of state have tended to underline his reduced status. For years, Putin was notorious for making world leaders such as Angela Merkel, Donald Trump, and Pope Francis wait while he arrived hours after the appointed time. With his position seriously undermined by the disastrous war in Ukraine, Putin is now the one doing the waiting. During a September 2022 conference in Uzbekistan, the leaders of Turkey, Azerbaijan, India, and Kyrgyzstan?all left Putin standing?as they arrived fashionably late for bilateral meetings.
Putin’s geopolitical isolation looks even uglier when compared to the remarkable recent international ascent of his nemesis, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In recent weeks, Zelenskyy has been lionized during high-profile visits to Rome, Berlin, Paris, and London; he has grabbed the headlines at the Arab League summit in Saudi Arabia and was the center of attention at the G7 summit in Japan. While everyone apparently wants to be seen alongside the Ukrainian leader, very few appear eager to stand with Putin.
This is not just a problem for Putin alone. Indeed, the toxicity engulfing his personal reputation has also led to Russia’s international ostracism. When the owner of popular dating apps Tinder and Hinge announced its departure from the Russian market in May 2023, company officials made clear that they could not afford the reputational damage of association with Vladimir Putin. “It’s not a good look for a trusted brand to be continuing operations in a nation where the head of state has been indicted by the International Criminal Court,”?commented?Match Group executive director Jeff Perkins.
Dating apps are only the tip of the iceberg, of course. A long list of?global brands?including McDonald’s, Coca-Cola, Nike, and Starbucks have exited or begun the process of leaving Russia since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. European countries have pivoted away from Russian energy imports, leading to an historic loss of market share for the Kremlin. Russia is also finding it increasingly difficult to source the spare parts it needs to keep its war machine rolling due to chronic shortages caused by the unprecedented sanctions imposed by the West over the attack on Ukraine.
None of this was anticipated by Putin when he first gave the order to invade Ukraine early last year. Based on his prior experience of Western weakness following the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the 2014 seizure of Crimea, Putin fully expected the democratic world to respond to his latest act of international aggression with vocal protests and symbolic sanctions before getting back to business as usual. This was an extremely costly miscalculation that has left Russia more isolated than at any time since the immediate aftermath of the Bolshevik Revolution one hundred years ago.
EURASIA CENTER EVENTS
As something of an amateur historian, Putin must be painfully aware that he has brought his own country to one of its lowest points in centuries. He has long been preoccupied with his place in Russian history and has authored a number of lengthy?historical?essays?that have been carefully crafted to justify his own deeply revisionist worldview. This obsession with the past has defined Putin’s entire reign and lies at the heart of his fateful decision to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Since coming to power at the turn of the millennium, Putin has consistently expressed his bitterness over the perceived historical injustice of the Soviet collapse. This has fed a vicious contempt for Ukrainian statehood, which he has come to view as the primary obstacle to his sacred mission of reuniting “historical Russia.” Putin is notorious for claiming Ukrainians are actually Russians (“one people”), and has?called?Ukraine “an inalienable part of Russia’s own history, culture, and spiritual space.” In February 2022, he resolved to settle the matter once and for all.
From the very beginning of Russia’s invasion, the baleful influence of Putin’s historical baggage has been abundantly clear. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov acknowledged this on day one of the war, when he reportedly?quipped?that Putin only has three advisors: “Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, and Catherine the Great.” Speaking months later in summer 2022, Putin confirmed the accuracy of Lavrov’s observation by publicly?comparing?his invasion?to the eighteenth century imperial conquests of Czar Peter.
With the war now in its sixteenth month, it is fair to say things have not gone according to plan for the would-be conqueror. Putin originally envisioned a blitzkrieg campaign that would rapidly extinguish Ukrainian independence and mark the dawn of a new Russian Empire. Instead, his soldiers have suffered a string of humiliating defeats that have shattered Russia’s reputation as a military superpower, and stand accused of sickening war crimes that have horrified the watching world.
For now, Putin remains defiant and insists his war aims will eventually be achieved, but it is difficult to see how Russia can hope to repair the damage done to its international standing. Instead, the decision to invade Ukraine looks set to be remembered as one of the greatest geopolitical blunders of the modern era. It has left Russia shunned and greatly diminished on the world stage, while earning Putin himself a place in infamy alongside history’s greatest criminals. He dreamed of emulating Peter the Great, but he has become Putin the Pariah.
Peter Dickinson is Editor of the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert Service.