Viksit Bharat 2047: How are we envisioning the Indian dream?
Virat Bahri ?
Joint Director at Trade Promotion Council of India | Leading trade research and industry outreach
A few days ago, I came across a LinkedIn post expressing optimism about India's future — despite the challenges. Such posts are not rare. Many emphasize that the glass is half or three-fourths full. And while it's true that India has every reason to be optimistic, I believe our perspective needs to be far more nuanced.
As someone who has spent countless hours contemplating this topic with friends, family, and colleagues, I feel that this nuanced perspective is not just the prerogative of the government. It must be embraced across all sections of society — from industry leaders to farmers, from labourers to the super-rich, and from policymakers to the middle class. Yes, we must stay positive; after all, India has been called the 'bright spot' in the global economy for good reason. And the government has taken vital steps to build confidence and usher in overall development of the economy. But we must also stay rational and decide carefully upon the ideal we wish to follow.
To put this in perspective, I often think about the evolution of the United States — the beacon of capitalism and free markets — and its journey over the last few decades. The US was the most vocal proponent of economic liberalization and globalization. Yet today, it is resorting to protectionism, driven by the need to protect its borders, economy, and jobs. This shift is in stark contrast to the ideals it once championed.
I think back to the early 1990s when India had just liberalized its economy. The USSR had collapsed, and the death knell for socialism was sounded across the world. For millions of Indians, the capitalist American Dream became an aspiration — a dream of upward mobility, meritocracy, and economic abundance.
We admired the US for its development, high quality of life, aspirational brands, and thriving career opportunities. Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the American dream has been its power to attract top talent from across the globe, including India. Today, Indian-origin CEOs run major US corporations, from Google to Microsoft to Adobe — a testimony to Indian talent but also a painful reminder that we haven't fully capitalized on our own human capital.
The cracks in this Dream became apparent post the 2008 sub-prime crisis, exposing deep economic and social fissures. According to the Pew Research Center, the US middle class, which comprised 61% of the population in 1971, has shrunk to 50% by 2021, with wealth concentration skyrocketing — the top 1% now holding more wealth than the entire middle class combined. Real wage growth has stagnated, and upward mobility — once the hallmark of the the US — has become increasingly elusive. Beyond economics, the US also faces troubling social indicators.
Despite the US dollar's global dominance, its performance in human development metrics tells a different story. As per the Human Development Index (HDI) 2023, the US ranks 21st, behind countries like Norway, Switzerland, and Australia, and stands 23rd on the Global Happiness Index, consistently lagging behind nations with stronger social safety nets and better work-life balance. Stagnating life expectancy, soaring healthcare costs, rampant gun violence, and widening societal divides further reveal the steep social cost of unchecked economic ambition — a reality that India must be cautious to avoid.
The US-China trade war, persistent tariffs, and attempts to subvert the multilateral trading system (the WTO) signal a shift in America's own belief in the ideals it once championed. In fact, India, despite being a developing economy, has grown at an average annual GDP growth rate of around 5.5% over the past decade, whereas the US has managed around 2.5% in the same period.
The US has historically been one of the largest emitters of carbon dioxide, and the pursuit of economic prosperity has often overridden climate consciousness. In 2025, with Trump back in office, the US has once again withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, signaling a continued reluctance to balance economic growth with environmental responsibility. This is a stark reminder that unchecked economic ambition often comes at a grave environmental cost. The heavy reliance on fossil fuels, rampant urban sprawl, and mass consumerism have significantly strained the planet's resources.
What are our citizens looking for?
But there is a deeper layer to this conversation — the nature of questions we ask ourselves as a society.
Thirty years ago, when India embarked on the path of liberalization, the questions we asked were different. We asked: How do we develop like America? How do we attract foreign investments? How do we globalize our economy? Today, the world has shifted fundamentally. The WTO, which was taking wings in the 1990s, is now minimally effective. New economic power centers have emerged, including China, the EU, and rapidly rising economies across Asia and Africa. The share of developing economies in global GDP has significantly increased, diluting the US-led dominance of the global economy.
The challenges have also transformed. On one hand, we are confronting the very real impacts of climate change, which threaten our food security, water availability, and livelihoods. On the other hand, AI and automation are poised to upend the traditional apparatus of economic growth. Experts widely debate whether AI will lead to jobless growth, further deepen income inequality, or leave large sections of society behind.
India needs a new set of questions. I pose some of them below:
India doesn't need to mimic the US. We have the opportunity to carve out an Indian Dream — one that fosters equitable growth, minimizes environmental cost, and prevents the societal fractures that have plagued the latter's model.
The world is watching. Will India take the road less traveled or follow a model that has already shown its limits? What do you think?
Article authored with inputs from ChatGPT