Victory in Syria is possible without resorting to force - opinion
Victory in Syria is possible without resorting to force?- opinion
It is an encouraging sign that the US and its Arab allies are on the same page regarding the US mission in Syria, serving as a reminder to Assad of his created chaos.
By?HADEEL OUEIS?Published:?JUNE 21, 2023
Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated during his recent trip to Riyadh that the fight against ISIS is still ongoing and that the US appreciates Saudi Arabia’s continued contributions to the mission to defeat ISIS, the main component being the presence of US troops in northeast Syria. Blinken spoke alongside the top Saudi diplomat who oversaw efforts to restore Riyadh’s diplomatic ties with Syrian President Bashar Assad.?
It is an encouraging sign that the US and its Arab allies are on the same page regarding the US mission in Syria, which serves as a reminder to Assad that the chaos he created continues to have consequences.
Turkey, on the other hand, is set to stay in northwest Syria due to its concerns over the growing power of the Syrian Kurds, the US partners in the fight against ISIS. Consequently, Assad won’t be able to revert to the pre-2011 status quo, since the US and Turkey Syria missions make it impossible for him to control more than one-third of the country, including the oil-rich part of Syria.?
For the time being, keeping the US troops in northeast Syria is the right thing to do to ensure the defeat of ISIS and prevent Assad and the Russians from declaring a complete victory. But more diplomatic work should be done to ensure that the outcome of the war in Syria won’t contradict US national interests in the long term.?
For the past three years, the Biden administration maintained the US mission in Syria, avoiding a sudden withdrawal that would have given Syria, Iran, Turkey, or ISIS a chance to fill the vacuum left by the US. However, it’s important for any American government to remember that the US presence in Syria cannot be used indefinitely to keep northeast Syria stable. And even while the US mission in northeastern Syria is not as controversial as the mission in Afghanistan, it is important to consider that if certain candidates win the 2024 elections, a pullout from Syria is very likely.
Therefore, it is crucial to make the most of the remaining time of the current mission in Syria to ensure that the years-long US investment in northeast Syria stability will serve the US interests, even in the event of a US withdrawal. And if the Biden administration wants to make tangible achievements in Syria, it’s important to think out of the box regarding the Syrian conflict.?
Considering all the military and political dynamics in Syria, it’s important for Washington to shift its strategy of punitive isolation to a “step-by-step” diplomacy approach with Damascus to facilitate progress in negotiations and minimize humanitarian suffering.
It’s important to utilize the pressuring tools, including the sanctions and the US presence in northeast Syria, to drive political changes, facilitate the safe return of refugees, contain the illicit drug trade, and eliminate Iranian militia activities. To achieve these objectives, intensive diplomatic efforts with Arab nations that have reestablished ties with Assad are crucial.?
How can a thriving economy eradicate civil issues in Syria?
SYRIA’S MULTITUDE of problems can be effectively addressed through the establishment of a robust economy. By promoting a strong economic environment in northeastern Syria, controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, pressure can be exerted on Assad to engage in fair negotiations with the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).?
Pressuring Assad to make compromises that will lead to a decentralized Syrian political system will encourage millions of refugees to return when they know that the bloody regime they escaped doesn’t have full control of their areas.
As Assad desperately needs the resources and foreign currency, working to improve the northeast’s economy will increase his willingness to make political compromises with other rivals. He will be more inclined to uphold stability and refrain from starting new military campaigns for territorial gains once he sees northeast Syria, which already has trade ties with Damascus, prosper.?
This rule can be applied to other areas in Syria where Assad doesn’t have full control, like Daraa and Swayda, in southwest Syria. Other Sunni-majority areas that suffered from Syrian, Iranian and Russian intensive military campaigns, like Homs and Aleppo, can also benefit from a decentralized system by engaging the Arab countries in our diplomatic campaign. The goal should be forcing Assad to give up some powers to local elected entities in these areas.?
Slowly, but steadily, the US can influence the outcome of the Syrian crisis in a way that will advance US interests and lay the foundation for a Syria that is stable, more free and safe, where refugees, at least those who live in the neighboring countries, can return.?
To achieve this result, the US must exert significant diplomatic effort on a number of fronts, including the Turkish one, to safeguard northeast Syria against another Turkish incursion that could jeopardize US goals. And since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been elected and is no longer subject to political pressure, he may be better positioned to sit down with the Kurds and negotiate a reasonable arrangement.?
These are all realistic goals that would result in a historic diplomatic victory for the United States in the Middle East, without the need to commit American soldiers or topple existing governments.?
The writer is a senior research fellow at the Philos Project.
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The Paris Summit for New Global Financing Pact will Benefit Africa
By?James Ndwaru - June 20, 2023
France will host, in Paris, on June 22 and 23, 2023, the Summit for a new global financing pact. The Summit seeks to rethink the contract between the countries in the Global North and the Global South. The organisers aim to formulate a new pact to address the global economic crisis and climate change.
The Summit will rally political leaders and representatives of global financial institutions. These include the IMF and the World Bank, civil society and the private sector. It will lay the foundation for creating a new global financing system. The new financing system will address inequality, debt crisis, climate change, international taxes, and special drawing rights. It will be more inclusive and fairer.
As the date for the Summit for a new global financing pact approaches, many people will have questions to ponder: how does the Paris Summit fit into a global context defined by the sweeping consequences of persistent economic, climate, health and energy crises, mainly in the most vulnerable nations? What should the international community and solidarity actors expect from the Paris Summit?
Background and stakes behind the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact
In November 2022, on the sidelines G20 Summit and the conclusion of a COP27 Summit with mixed results,?French President ?Emmanuel Macron called for a global conference in Paris in June 2023. Macron announced that the Paris Summit would take stock “of all means and ways of increasing financial solidarity with the Global South”.
Emmanuel Macron’s announcement happened in a particular global context. The climate change crisis particularly threatens the Global South countries, including island states. Thus, the Barbados Prime Minister, Mia Mottley, has led an initiative to finance climate action since COP26. The “Bridge Initiative” focuses on facilitating access to global financing for the countries most vulnerable to climate change. The funding allows them to respond better to climate challenges.
President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement aligns with the Bridgetown Initiative. However, the Paris Summit will deliberate on financing issues beyond the climate question, including the fight against poverty.
The Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukrainian conflict, and the?accompanying consequences have massively shrunk the budgetary and fiscal space for many countries, including Africa . This has affected their ability to finance citizens’ access to basic social needs and services. Consequently, the UNDP observed a human development decline in nine out of ten countries globally in 2022. The decline has mainly come from increased poverty levels and a drop in life expectancy.
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Objectives for the Paris Summit
Catherine Colonna, the French Minister of Europe and Foreign Affairs, in a statement on January 6, 2023, noted that the?Paris Summit ?would focus on building a new pact with a Global North and a Global South. According to her, the new arrangement would facilitate vulnerable countries’ access to the necessary finance to address the effects of the current and future crises.
On the same day, the Secretary of State for Development, Francophonie and International Partnerships, Chrysoula Zacharopoulou, and the Permanent Representative of France to the OECD, Amélie de Montchalin, took part in a webinar arranged by the Finance for Development Lab on the issues at stake at the Paris Summit 2023. In this instance, the webinar announced four main agendas that four working groups would follow up:
The Paris Summit will bring together several agendas (debt, climate change, development) and proposals for innovative answers to these issues. The Summit forms part of other 2023 global events (COP28, SDG Summit, G20, etc.) and will push for tangible results during these occasions. To ensure the success of the Summit for New Global Financing Pact, the organisers have expressed interest in profiting from the contributions of the private sector and the civil society actors.
Dates and attendance for the Paris Summit
A joint statement by the Franco-German Council of Ministers, the Summit will happen on June ?22 to 23 in Paris. The opening ceremony will punctuate the first day of the Summit. Six round tables, 30 branded events and 50 parallel events will follow. A closing ceremony will happen on the morning of June 23 to announce the conclusions of the Summit deliberations.Various leaders have confirmed attendance. These include the President of Mozambique, Filipe Nyusi, Prime Minister of Barbados, Olaf Scholz, Luis Inacio, the President of Brazil, Lula Da Silva, Germany Chancellor Mia Mottley, Chinese Premier Li Qiang, and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Several representatives of international organisations, activists, and philanthropists will also attend. They include AfDB President Akinwumi Adesina, Word Bank President Ajay Banga, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen, UN Goodwill Ambassador and activist Vanessa Nakate, co-founder of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and philanthropist Melinda French Gates, among others.
A high-level international steering committee composed of states and international organisations oversees the Paris Summit preparations. It includes France, South Africa, Senegal, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, Barbados, Brazil, Japan, China, India, the United Nations Secretariat, the European Commission, the OECD, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.
Civil society campaigns
Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa at the Summit for New Global Financing Pact
AfDB president Dr Akinwumi Adesina will moderate?a roundtable discussion ?about the Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa (AGIA) with government leaders and development partners’ representatives on June 2023. The event, slated for 15:00-16:00 CEST, will happen on the sidelines of the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris. Seven heads of state will join Akinwumi Adesina. Islamic Development Bank Chairman Muhammad Al Jasser and the European Investment Bank President, Werner Hoyer, will also attend. Participants will make remarks before a closing statement from President Adesina.
The Alliance represents a program by the African Union Commission, the AfDB, and Africa50 with other partners. The platform allows African nations to partner with the private sector to raise $500 million in early-stage combined finance capital. This will catalyse up to $10 billion in green and climate-resilient programs and projects. Its eventual goal is to hasten a transition to net-zero emissions by Africa and for Africa.
The event will promote AGIA as an influential platform. AGIA could accelerate and scale funding Africa’s transformational climate-resilient and greener infrastructure projects to attract new financiers and partners. It will also provide a progress update on the Alliance’s activities since its launch at COP27. The June 22-23 Summit for a New Global Financing Pact is one to anticipate. Many of the deliberations and expected outcomes will no doubt benefit the majority of African nations.
Read more: COP 26:?COP 26: Charting green energy pathways to Secure Africa’s sustainable future
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South Africa partners with Dutch, Danish governments on green hydrogen fund
June 21, 20232:38 PM GMT+2
JOHANNESBURG, June 20 (Reuters) - South Africa and the governments of the Netherlands and Denmark on Tuesday launched a $1 billion green hydrogen fund to help kick-start an industry seen as critical to the country's decarbonisation efforts.
South Africa's energy transition plan envisages setting up an ecosystem and export hub for green hydrogen, which is made using renewable energy and without producing greenhouse gas emissions.
The nation wants to produce the fuel for use in aviation, green steel, transport and more, as well as for export to the European Union. But President Cyril Ramaphosa has?said ?this would require 319 billion rand ($17.57 billion).
The new fund, dubbed SA-H2 and run by Climate Fund Managers, a joint venture between the Dutch development bank, FMO, and South African insurer Sanlam, will look to support South Africa's green hydrogen sector.
"The SA-H2 Fund initiative will aim to secure US$1 billion in funding, to be raised directly in South Africa or indirectly via other channels," Climate Fund Managers said in a statement.
European nations are eager to help South Africa, the world's 14th biggest?emitter ?of carbon dioxide, transition towards a greener economy to help mitigate climate change.
The nation currently relies on a fleet of 15 ageing coal-fired power plants for electricity.
A group of rich countries including France, Germany, Britain, the United States and the European Union pledged $8.5 billion to South Africa in 2021 for its green transition, including a green hydrogen industry.
A?similar fund ?targeting green hydrogen was also set up for Namibia last year.
Critics say a key challenge to setting up a green hydrogen industry in South Africa is its slow renewable energy roll-out, an imperative for green hydrogen production.
According ?to Boston Consultancy Group, South Africa would need to set up 6-7 gigawatts (GW) of renewable capacity per year for the next two decades to support a green hydrogen industry, compared with the 6 GW it has managed in total since 2011.
($1 = 18.1565 rand)
Reporting by Promit Mukherjee and Carien du Plessis; Editing by Anait Miridzhanian and Emma Rumney
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