A victory and a breakthrough
FEPS Europe
The Foundation for European Progressive Studies (FEPS) is the think tank of the progressive political family at EU level
The European Super Sunday of 27 October 2024 saw two general elections taking place. In Lithuania, it was the second and conclusive round of voting for the new Seimas, which ended up with a huge win of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP). In Bulgaria, it was the 6th snap election since 2021 – but the first in which centre-left managed to break out of the downward spiral and the BSP-United Left gained one extra seat in comparison to the June result. Both results are instructive and a clear signal that those willing to write off Social Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe may have been too hasty at best.
The victory of LSDP is a phenomenal one. The party led since 2021 by MEP Vilija Blinkevi?iūt??continued on a stable path of reconstruction and revival, fairly unshaken by diverse splits and becoming a viable alternative to the centre-right in a decisive moment . LSDP reached almost 20 per cent in the Seimas elections, winning 52 seats out of 141 (which is a gain of 39 MPs in comparison with the previous result). It is the best result of the party in this century. In parallel the ruling centre-right Homeland Union halved, falling from 50 to merely 28 seats. To command the majority – which in the Seimas is 71 votes, LSDP will need to build a coalition, and the talks have already begun with the Lithuanian Farmers and Green Union (8 seats), as well as the Union of Democrats 'For Lithuania' (14 seats). The Liberals Movement and Dawn of Nemunas (which is a new nationalist party and that ended 3rd in the election (with 20 seats).
?While the win of LSDP is unquestionable (especially since the party gained 34 of the single mandate districts and won roughly 90 per cent of the ?run-offs), the path forward will be a challenging one. The partisan system has changed and shown to be prone to the tendencies known elsewhere, such as fragmentation and polarisation, alongside the emergence of radical forces whose standpoints towards Russia and the Russian invasion of Ukraine should be considered inadmissible. The country is taken by preoccupation with the security and the socio-economic situation, and succeeding in the elections comes with a string attached. LSDP will have to? form a coalition, which will mean navigating to deliver on progressive expectations to fight inequalities while also solidifying its dominance over not only the left but also the centre of the political spectrum.
?In parallel, there have also been positive developments in Bulgaria. Although the news outlets focused on the fact that last Sunday saw yet another snap election that emphasised the general point about the crisis of democratic politics, as also that the first place was yet again claimed by GERB (which won with 25,52 per cent and hence 69 out of 240 seats of the National Assembly), one should not overlook what happened on the centre-left. There BSP formed a coalition BSP-United Left, which saw in absolute terms a surge of support and brought the formation 7,32 per cent (which means 20 seats, being one more than before). While there were some significant electoral shifts even in comparison to the elections in June, it seems to be that the new block is considered a new opening and managed to resonate with some of the former core BSP voters.
?Though the path to renewal for centre-left is always long and labour-intense, especially when the partisan system is evolving around the rivalry of the right and radical right, the BSP-United Left result is and should be considered as the marking of the next chapter for the progressives. And Bulgaria desperately needs them as an alternative , being the EU member states that lags greatly behind concerning social, economic and also democratic standards. ?Voters see the persistent deadlock in forming a government as alarming and are disenchanted with the elections (only 38 per cent turned up at the polling stations). Against this backdrop, the reinvigoration of Boyko Borisov and GERB, who had to step down amid the anti-corruption protests, as also the fact that the ultra-nationalist, pro-Russian Vazrazhdane (Revival) party came third (with 13.5 per cent) is a reason for great concern, indeed.
LITHUANIA ????
Last Sunday, Lithuanian Social Democrats scored an undisputed victory in the national legislative elections. Their dramatic rebound after crushing defeats in the previous two election cycles may offer certain insights into?how the centre-left parties may fight back in East-Central Europe and elsewhere.
By Inga?Popovaite
Social Democrats celebrated a clear victory in the Lithuanian parliament elections. The final round of national elections on 27 October ended the four-year rule of the centre-right coalition led by conservatives and paved the way for the centre-left coalition. Social democrats (52 seats) are expected to form a majority cabinet with two smaller parties, the Democratic Union (14 seats) and the Union of Farmers and Greens (8 seats). However, the country is currently the only Baltic one that has no legal recognition of same-sex partnerships. And the chances of it happening are murky with the incoming centre-left government.?
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BULGARIA ????
By Boris Petrov Popivanov
The elections in Bulgaria on October 27 brought moderate growth for the Socialist Party, which, for the first time in a long time, managed to stop its electoral collapse. The legacy of ideological wanderings and internal conflicts, as well as the general crisis of the party system, hardly encourages greater expectations. But the new broad left coalition needs much more active actions if it wants to impose its agenda in Bulgarian politics.
By Plamen Vladimirov
Exit polls show that about 70 per cent of those who voted for BSP-UNITED LEFT in the current elections voted for BSP FOR BULGARIA in the previous parliamentary elections. This means that about 120-130,000 people who voted for the left-wing coalition in June 2024 have done so again now. And also that the number of left-wing voters who ‘boycotted’ the BSP in the current elections equals about 20-30,000.
FEPS Corner
The social democratic parties in the Visegrád countries Predicaments and prospects for progressivism
Edited by Ania Skrzypek and András Bíró-Nagy ?- Published by Palgrave - A collaboration between FEPS, Centrum im. Ignacego Daszyńskiego, Masarykova Demokraticka Akademie and Policy Solutions ?
This book analyses three decades of?political?developments within the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. The authors explain the rise, the fall, and the fight for the perseverance of the centre-left and investigate the roots of the vulnerability of representative democracies in post-transition countries. László Andor, FEPS Secretary General, wrote the foreword of the book. Read it here.
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