A Very Tough Year

In the American West, drought has a deep history of withering crops, draining rivers, and fueling fires. But scientists are now warning that we may be at beginning of an extended megadrought unlike anything known in recorded history.

 “No matter which way you slice it, the clear indication is that the current drought ranks right up there with the worst in more than a thousand years,” Jason Smerdon, a paleoclimatologist at Columbia University’s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, told Smithsonian Magazine last year.

By definition, megadroughts last for at least 20 years. During the past 1,200 years, the American West has had four: during the 800s, the mid-1100s, the 1200s, and the late 1500s. We’re experiencing the fifth.

Nationwide, drought has expanded to its greatest areal coverage since 2013; 72.5 million people are in areas affected by drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Nearly 40 percent of the West is now in a state of extreme or exceptional drought, the two worst categories. Only about 10 percent of the region is drought-free. 

“It looks like it’s going to be a very tough year. We are probably looking at increased fire dangers, water restrictions and also impacts to ecosystems, such as small rivers and streams and the wildlife living there," Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center told The Guardian.

Last year was the driest on record for Utah and Nevada. In California, about 90 percent of the state is in a drought, a year after its most destructive wildfire season on record. The Drought Monitor includes the observation that “vegetation and native trees are dying” in parts of New Mexico because of “severe drought.”

 Fast-Growing Population

Meanwhile, the West faces rapid population growth at the same time that forecasts show dry times ahead due to global climate change. Every decade between 1950 and 2010, population growth in the Desert Southwest was at least triple the overall U.S. rate. Arizona, which averages 13 inches of precipitation annually, currently has one of the highest population growth rates in the country.

According to the City of Phoenix website, the current drought problem “surpassed the worst drought in more than 110 years of official record-keeping.” In New Mexico, crops and cattle production are at risk.

Every single day between 2010 and 2019, the Phoenix metro area grew by about 200 people. Phoenix has been among the country's fastest-growing cities for years, according to U.S. Census Bureau data, and it's expected to double in size by 2040, up from nearly 1.7 million people right now.

Economic Losses

With annual losses in the $10 billion to $14 billion range, drought is a serious hazard with substantial socioeconomic risks for the United States. It ranks only behind hurricanes in terms of billion-dollar weather disasters in the past three decades.

Droughts have the potential to affect every sector of a local economy, but the agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable. Below-average precipitation along with diminished surface water and groundwater supplies and above-average temperatures can reduce crop yields and affect irrigation and livestock watering. 

The stresses of drought have prompted Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, California, New Mexico, and Arizona to a form of weather modification called cloud seeding to create rain over the hardest-hit areas.

Rain Makers

Cloud seeding, which dates back to the 1940s, involves using aircraft or drones to add small particles of silver iodide, which have a structure similar to ice, to clouds. Water droplets cluster around the particles, modifying the structure of the clouds and increasing the chance of precipitation.

But solving the western drought would require hundreds of planes to fly across the skies of some of America’s largest states. So, even if cloud seeding works, it may not be something that can be scaled up to the degree needed.

Human-caused climate change is increasing the likelihood of precipitation extremes on both ends of the scale, including droughts as well as heavy rainfall events and resulting floods. Studies consistently show that as the Southwest warms, the odds of drought only increase.

This is the lead story to BBA Economic Digest, a weekly online newsletter for economic developers and business people. Six more stories follow. To subscribe, go to https://www.barberadvisors.com/plans-pricing