Vancouver Real Estate Market Update | November 2023
The past month has brought about significant shifts in the Greater Vancouver housing market, revealing intriguing trends in both supply and demand dynamics. Notably, a discernible pattern, with primarily desirable properties in move-in-ready conditions?experiencing quick sales while less desirable properties stay?stagnant. The market is continuing to go through a transition and demand remains below seasonal norms. There have also been some notable legislation propositions for higher density that will completely change the landscape of our city.
Sales
Greater Vancouver housing market saw 1,996 residential sales last month, reflecting a 3.7% increase compared to October 2022. However, it's essential to note that these sales numbers remain 29.5% below the 10-year seasonal average. This suggests that while there has been an increase in newly listed properties, demand remains weaker than expected for this time of the year.
Supply and Demand Dynamics
The market has witnessed a surge in newly listed properties, with 4,664 detached, attached, and apartment properties hitting the market in October 2023.? This represents a 15.4% increase from the same period in 2022 and is 4.8% above the 10-year seasonal average. This discrepancy between new listings and subdued demand indicates that market conditions have shifted towards a more balanced state.
With that said, real estate is very local and each segment reacts differently. For example, detached properties in Maple Ridge, Surrey, and Langley are in buyers market territory. We will see downward pressure on prices if they stay in this state for a prolonged period of time.
Inventory
We saw a strong counter-seasonable inventory build for October for the first time in nearly 20 years.The total number of properties listed for sale in October 2023 increased by 12.6% compared to the previous year, with a total of 11,599 properties currently listed. This is also slightly above the 10-year seasonal average.
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Home Prices
The MLS? Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver stands at $1,196,500, representing a 4.4% increase compared to October 2022. However, there has been a slight 0.6% decrease compared to September 2023. Home prices for detached, apartment, and attached homes each exhibit their own trends.
Declining Confidence Levels
Consumer and business confidence levels have steadily eroded, sinking below historic lows. This loss of confidence exacerbates short-term economic concerns and raises questions about the prospects for economic recovery.
Inflation Expectations and Market Speculations
The Bank of Canada has indicated that inflation is not expected to normalize until 2025. However, market speculations are already pricing in potential rate cuts in April or June 2024.? This divergence in outlooks adds a layer of complexity to the economic landscape, introducing uncertainty into the broader market sentiment.
Legislation introduced to deliver more homes near transit hubs
The B.C. government has unveiled new legislation aimed at addressing the housing crisis by overriding municipal zoning and promoting transit-oriented development. Housing Minister Ravi Kahlon introduced the legislation, which, if passed, compels certain cities to permit towers of up to 20 storeys near specific transit hubs. The proposed legislation mandates cities to designate Transit Oriented Development Areas (TOD Areas) within defined proximity to transit facilities, with minimum height and density requirements tailored to city size and distance. Additionally, it eliminates minimum parking requirements in TOD Areas, aiming to avoid overbuilding and reduce housing costs. The plan anticipates around 100,000 new units in TOD Areas over the next decade. Municipalities have until June 30, 2024, to designate TOD Areas, and the legislation aligns with the small-scale, multi-unit housing legislation. The Province commits approximately $400 million to deliver transit-oriented housing over the next 10 to 15 years. The legislation reflects a comprehensive effort to create vibrant, connected communities and address the housing crisis.
Opportunity:
Historically speaking, we have entered a period in the market where great deals can be found. It will be challenging to find quality inventory as inventory begins to shrink as well but it’s a good time of the year to keep an eye on properties - especially if you are looking to upsize.
Thank you for reading. I hope you found this report insightful. Please share it with anyone who might also find this information useful and get in touch if you have any market-specific questions or would like to receive sub-market-specific PDF reports.
Nav Shahram PREC* | Award Winning Vancouver Realtor | [email protected]