"Value is: as value does"
One of my favourite movies is Forrest Gump: the story of an idiot savant, named after a military savant. As Forrest says: 'Stupid is: as stupid does'. It's the same for the valuation of any asset, no matter what form it might take.
Armillary has just published a brief paper as a pre-amble to a fuller report due out later this month on Early Stage Company Valuations and Crowd Funding in NZ. Whilst my colleagues have been researching and writing this work, I have been valuing a fast growing (circa 19% CAGR); in a complex and mature sector, and reflecting on both the above report and the 2014 ROCE Report, while I did this.
This process has helped me be more certain than ever: all assets are valued in relation to their expected cash flows - listen up, this applies to every type of company, in every industry, in every market in the world.
Indeed, Thomas Piketty, in the first third of Capital in the 21st Century, finds a strong correlation between returns of 6-8%p.a. with the value of many forms of assets, including real property, sovereign debt and the value of public assets in three countries over 200 and 300 years.
So it doesn't matter if you're a $billion turnover company or a tiny pre-product; pre-customer; pre-revenue entity. The same questions are being asked by potential investors or proprietors: what are sizes and timings of future cash flows. If the net present value of the future cash flows exceeds the aggregate value of capital employed and the aggregate cost of capital, the investment should be value accretive: smart investors will invest.
Conversely, if the price is too high, or risks of future cash flows are too high, or the timing too uncertain: smart investors should not invest.
As Forrest Gump said: "Life is like a box of chocolates: You never know what you're gonna get." If you're an investor - take off the shiny wrappings and taste the goods, before you buy.
But if you want to make out like a bandit, well, then I have a different Forrests' quote: "Git thar fustest with the most mostest." Essentially, you want to pick out likely outsize future cash flow's and heavily invest in them. But a word to the wise: without data; without insight; without judgement, and without discipline - its pure speculation. With these things then everything is possible!
Drop me a note if you'd like to join the Armillary crowd; and access some information on Armillary and our process and offerings.
All the best
Leon