Value Creation for 2030

Value Creation for 2030

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Futurecasting is undoubtedly an exercise that has humbled far too many.? Yet, in times where the established velocity of change is a rising exponential, how do we prepare for value creation in the year 2030?

As someone who has spent 25 years observing many industries, I have put forth below four areas based on the roadmaps of different industries that may provide a fascinating glimpse into how both businesses and people can prepare themselves for pathways to 2030.? I leave it to the reader to then conclude on the products, services, business models, collaboration methods and career pathways you would obviously forge forward with.? The value creation will unquestionably be robust and inspiring.? To be clear, by scanning across the roadmaps of different industries, I have shifted the burden of futurecasting to the composite formed from the capabilities and competitive approaches of various industry participants.

A.????? Home Data Speeds: 30X increases in US residential data download speeds by 2030 from 2020 levels.

An FCC report released in January, 2023 found residential data download speeds to be approximately 310 Mbps in the US[i].? Imagine what is possible if by year 2030, residential data download speeds increase to 10 Gbps[ii] for customers in key markets, a rate at which you stream thousand plus movies simultaneously.? Imagine what that means to both remote and in-person collaboration: How will it shape creative and productive outcomes?? How will this shape schools, offices, factories, and more broadly our professional and personal lives? How does this shape national security matters?

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B.????? Global Computing Power: 500X increases in global AI computing power & 8X increases in global data generation[iii]

Globally, 73 new semiconductor fabrication plants are being constructed today either as expansion of current sites or as new ones[iv].? More importantly, technology nodes being targeted by 2030 will be sub 1-nm for semiconductor chips[v].? Putting it simply, expect computing performance to improve over today’s levels using 25% of the energy used today and deliver greater than 50% better performance[vi].

Imagine then a world where AI moves from perceptive to cognitive, self-learning and self-creating, where we perhaps move from the “Internet of Things” to the “Cognition of Things”.? This then drives fascinating inquiry amongst us in areas such as:

???????????????????????????????? I.??????????? How will consumer facing industries shape cognitive products and brands?

?????????????????????????????? II.??????????? How do you shape the laws and infrastructure surrounding privacy, intellectual property, cybersecurity and finance?

???????????????????????????? III.??????????? How do you shape teams and organizational structures?

??????????????????????????? IV.??????????? How do courts use subject matter experts?

????????????????????????????? V.??????????? How do we then measure excellence, be it in sports, commerce or scientific pursuits?

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C.????? ?The Frontiers of Industrial Innovation

Citius, Altius, Fortius: Latin for Faster, Higher & Stronger.? Applying this Olympic motto to industrial advances, how far does the arc of progress move forward by 2030?

???????????????????????????????? I.??????????? Computational Fluid Dynamics: As advances in modeling and simulation improve what we can achieve in computational fluid dynamics, we can expect remarkable advances in industries such as aviation, spacecraft design, automobiles, racing equipment and marine architecture.? Couple that with advances in sensor technologies as well as autonomy and you may have at least one nagging question: What does the 2030 version of Top Gun[vii] ?look and feel like?

?????????????????????????????? II.??????????? Reducing the Cost of Energy: Finding a needle in a haystack is not intended to be easy.? But, what if one leverages the cognitive networks of 2030 across the energy and mining value chain from extraction, analysis, production to logistics.? Do we hit the quintessential goldmine faster, perhaps on an asteroid to make it more challenging?

???????????????????????????? III.??????????? Material Science: Sanford L. Moskowitz, in his book Advanced Materials Innovation, Managing Global Technology in the 21st Century, estimated that over three-quarters of all economic growth by 2030 to 2050 would be attributable to the development and application of advanced materials[viii]. ?Said differently, from food security to infrastructure, from drug discovery to spacesuits, from cognitive sports gear to batteries that will last on Mars, we have a lot of new material science to catalyze. ?

?D.????? Expanding Our Common Understanding

Several avenues of research and analysis today will advance further and in turn expand our common collective understanding.

i)??????? Quantum Computing: By 2030, we should expect the commercialization of quantum apps and computing to deliver disruptive changes to a wide range of industries[ix].? Both classical and quantum networks will be available to be used in tandem by the CIO.? Much like other disruptive computing technologies, we can expect the same sets of issues in quantum computing impacting nation-states, regulators, as well as bad actors. ?

ii)?????? Particulate and Cosmological Phenomena: ?The discovery of the Higgs Boson particle, a particle that gives mass to other particles such as electrons, required the use of the largest network of scientific computers, given the massive amounts of data that needed to be analyzed.? Fast forward to 2030, how will the use of AI computing power and quantum computing advance our understanding of particulate physics.? How far will our understanding of and commerce from cosmological phenomena evolve by 2030, assuming we can set up exploratory bases across the solar system, and deliver on the undertakings of the space-based industry.

iii)???? Extreme Events: Weld together the expected advances in space, computing and material sciences, and by 2030, can we expect to drive better predictions for extreme natural phenomena on earth, and thus shape better outcomes for people?

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While the areas laid above suggest remarkable progress, it is also expected that global population growth will be in the region of 1.7% in compound annual growth rate terms from 2023 through 2030[x], and global annual GDP growth too will be in the low single digits.? How do we then navigate the business, personal, scientific and national journeys for robust and inspiring value creation while growing markets, driving larger efficiencies and realizing higher potential for our collective stakeholders?

Perhaps, as simply as by saying: Saddle up & enjoy the ride.? ??.

(All views expressed are my own.)

[i] Measuring Fixed Broadband - Twelfth Report | Federal Communications Commission (fcc.gov)

?[ii] Comcast Corp at Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on September 06, 2023 / 2:30PM (cmcsa.com)

?[iii] Computing 2030 - Huawei

[iv] 9 Key Statistics on New Semiconductor Fabs Being Built Around the World - Z2Data

[v] Imec's chip scaling roadmap: smaller, better, faster | imec (imec-int.com)

[vi] Advanced logic technology at 2nm node | IBM Research

[vii] paramountpictures.com/movies/top-gun

[viii] See S.L. Moskowitz, 2016, Advanced Materials Innovation: Managing Global Technology in the 21st Century, Wiley, https://www.wiley.com.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2019. Frontiers of Materials Research: A Decadal Survey. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25244.

[ix] 11 Top Experts: Quantum Top Trends 2023 And 2030 (forbes.com)

ibm.com/roadmaps/quantum/2030/

[x] Population | United Nations