The Value of the Contrarian

1961, The Bay of Pigs, Cuba:

In April 1961, America attempted to overthrow Fidel Castro's government in Cuba. About 1,400 exiled Cubans landed at the Bay of Pigs, on the southern coast of Cuba. They were supported by the US Air Force, Navy and the CIA and America was extremely confident that this would be easy. But nothing went according to plan. By day 3, it was all over and the remaining 1,200 survivors were sent to military prison. This invasion of the Bay of Pigs is regarded as one of the biggest failures in American foreign policy.

All the assumptions that America had, especially those in favour of America's success were incorrect. President John F Kennedy's team grossly underestimated Cuba's air force. The designated emergency hiding spot to continue the war from was 100 miles away from the Bay of Pigs. There were many, many issues with the plan with some of them being plain non-sensical in hindsight. Now it seems absurd that such a plan was even agreed upon; that it was put into action is astounding. The Kennedy administration and the advisors were no fools. So what happened back then that led to this fiasco?

How can one of the smartest administrations of the USA and all their advisors be so terribly wrong?

2017, Flipkart, India:

It was the year 2017, when I was a Senior Analyst at Flipkart. There was a discussion about the performance evaluation and appraisal process. The entire team was present - the Sr. Director, Director, ADs, managers and all analysts. Our HRBP (HR Business Partner) was present too, of course. A little before this discussion, the analysts were talking about the topic and several had grievances. But in the room with leadership, where speaking up actually mattered, there was complete silence. It seemed everything was hunky dory. But I disagreed. I thought there was a systemic issue to be fixed. Initially it was dismissed as a one-off case as nobody agreed (nobody even nodded in agreement). I believed otherwise and kept providing more instances that I felt were manifestations of the issue. Nobody else spoke. It was just me and the Sr. Director engaging in what would seem like a long argument.

After the discussion was over, the other analysts seemed convinced that I was a fool who didn't know that silence was better for me then (a couple of them told me so). I too began to doubt if I spoke more than I should have and if it would be detrimental to me in some way. While heading back to my seat, I heard the Sr. Director's voice from around the corner. We couldn't possibly see each other, but I recognized his voice. He said to the Director, "It was great that Rahim spoke. Otherwise the entire exercise would have been a waste of time."

Groupthink and conformity

If everyone else in the group seems to have a unanimous view, they must be right, right? The other people in the group aren't stupid and they all agree; so if you have a contrarian view, it is much more likely that you are wrong, right? There's enough social proof. Even if you do disagree, you may not have a very good justification and air-tight arguments and might end up looking like a fool. Also, you don't want to be the naysayer - nobody likes a naysayer. You are happy and secure to be part of the group. So you sit there and don't present your opposing view.

If you ever refrained from stating a contrary opinion just for the fact that others are in agreement, maybe it was groupthink at play.

When everyone thinks this way, it is called "groupthink". As a consequence of this phenomenon, decisions are made that individuals, without any peer pressure, would disagree with. The fiasco from the story of the Bay of Pigs is a result of this phenomenon. This phenomenon is all too common in business situations too. If you ever refrained from stating a contrary opinion just for the fact that others are in agreement, maybe it was groupthink at play. Think of all the projects and endeavours that had consensus from everyone, but seem like terrible ideas now in hindsight. Would you have taken them up with the same conviction if you received enough contrarian views? Would the Bay of Pigs invasion have gotten approval if some of the advisors had expressed opposing views? Maybe, just maybe, opposing views would have brought your attention to some aspect of the problem that was ignored, or led to critical review of some tacit assumptions.

Think of the projects that had consensus from everyone, but seem like terrible ideas in hindsight. What if you had received strong contrarian views?

Value the contrarian, or be the contrarian

In the second story, from Flipkart, the leader acknowledged the importance of the contrarian opinion. The leader wasn't looking for an echo chamber, but had an open mind and was looking for inputs to improve the system. If I hadn't spoken up and disagreed, the leader wouldn't have gotten any input of value. The exercise would indeed have been a waste of time as he would emerged from it with just a false confirmation that everything was good. It has been about 5 years since that incident, but that lesson in leadership has stayed with me and so has my resolve to express my contrarian views.

?If you ever find yourself in such a situation - where an entire group has a unanimous view, but you disagree, you MUST speak your mind. Even if you aren't 100% sure you are correct. Do so even if your team does not like it. You never know if maybe someone else was refraining too. Question the implicit premise, question the tacit assumptions on which the estimated impact is based. Your team and leadership are smart people, they would usually value a contrarian position.

"If you are a leader, appoint someone to be the Devil's advocate. She might not be the most popular member of the team, but she might be the most important."

?If you are a leader, ensure that you create an environment conducive for contrarian views - where one doesn't feel threatened or stupid for expressing opposing views. Encourage the opposing view! Popular decision making frameworks like Edward De Bono's 'Six Thinking Hats' stress on bringing in all views, including the pessimistic view and encourage discussion on why the idea might fail. Contrarian views and contrarian thinkers are a valuable asset. In case you sense a high consensus in a discussion, appoint someone to be the Devil's advocate. As Rolf Dobelli says, "She might not be the most popular member of the team, but she might be the most important".

Note: The article is inspired by a chapter Rolf Dobelli's book, "The Art of Thinking Clearly"

#decisionmaking #leadership #problemsolving #culture