Valentines Day 2025: A dinner party, of dead people, held on the 12th, not the 14th. The most 2025 dinner party ever.

“Since it is the last scarcity, wherever attention flows, money will follow.”― Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future

A Satirical Soirée: Economic Luminaries Debate the State of Retail and E-commerce in 2025

New York City, February 12, 2025 – In an unprecedented convergence of minds, I had the distinct pleasure of hosting a dinner party featuring some of history's most renowned economic thinkers. The guest list included Sir Thomas More, John Stuart Mill, Karl Marx, Friedrich Engels, George Bernard Shaw, William Herschel, Nikolai Kondratiev, Wilhelm Roscher, John Dewey, Charles A. Beard, Thorstein Veblen, Alfred Marshall, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Naomi Klein, and, making a grand entrance, former President Donald J. Trump. Yes, this appears to have been well researched. What could go wrong??(Authors note: I had to wikipedia most of these names, and after dinner, I know even less about them.)

As the evening unfolded, the conversation naturally gravitated towards the current state of retail and e-commerce, particularly in light of recent trade tariffs and their impact on supply chains and consumerism. Prepare for a lot of economic puns.For this, I am sorry, not sorry.?

State of the (E)Nation Address: The Great E-commerce Circus of 2025?

Delivered by Vinny O Brien, E-commerce Consultant and LinkedIn Spammer, to a Room Full of Dead Economic Legends Who Are Somehow Still More Relevant Than Most Modern Pundits. Their words, not mine.

Esteemed guests, intellectual giants, and one particularly orange-hued former president.

Welcome to New York City, (I picked New York as not everyone had been, i thought the place woudl set a tone. I was wrong) the land where dreams are made, rents are absurd, and e-commerce is currently tap-dancing on a high wire over an economic abyss. It's 2025, and oh, what a time to be alive! Or in some of your cases, sort of... conceptually alive.

Ecommerce today is like a teenager with a credit card or a BNPL account (more on that later) and no impulse control. Sales are booming, logistics are crumbling, and consumers are more confused than ever. Supply chains? Tighter than Veblen's definition of pecuniary emulation. Tariffs? More unpredictable than Keynes's mood swings. And don't get me started on Temu and Shein’s whack-a-mole strategy with de minimis exemptions—a loophole now closed faster than Friedman's disdain for government intervention.

Inflation is up, consumer trust is down, and the only thing more inflated than prices are tech CEOs' egos. Note, many are Billionaires - economists, love this kind of stuff. None predicted it though. Amazon is still the towering colossus, now delivering existential dread within 24 hours. Shopify? Still helping SMBs live the dream of working 80 hours a week to avoid a 40-hour job. And Meta? Oh, they’re too busy building virtual malls in the metaverse where no one shops.

One Big Question: The outlook for 2025??It has changed since NRF.

Picture a rollercoaster designed by Kondratiev himself: long waves of growth followed by sudden plunges that make Marx scream “I told you so!” from the afterlife. Tariffs on Chinese imports are wreaking havoc, turning every container ship into a floating financial crisis. Retailers are scrambling like Marshall calculating elasticity, while consumers are left wondering why their $5 Temu t-shirt now costs $15. (it takes a lo to pun this much).

But fear not! Said the NRF.

Resilience is the name of the game. We're seeing brands innovate, adapting like Roscher would advise, and exploiting crises in ways that would make Naomi Klein write another book. The future is uncertain, the challenges are immense, but if history (and Veblen’s snarky observations) teach us anything, it's that commerce, like human folly, is eternal.

So buckle up, dear guests. Tonight, we dissect the chaos, reminisce about the days when tariffs were mere textbook entries, and debate whether any of this madness is, in fact, progress.

I would love to hear your insights !! Let the intellectual brawl begin!

Cheers to the past, the present, and the profoundly Perplexity future. Now, you don't want to hear from me any more. I will defer to you my guests to let me know if Shirley Bassey was indeed right and are we seeing a little bit of history repeating.

Some say, A Modern Utopia?

Sir Thomas More, observing the skyline from the penthouse where we dined, remarked, "I envisioned a Utopia, but this metropolis exceeds even my imagination." To which John Stuart Mill replied, "Indeed, but with greater freedom comes greater responsibility, especially in commerce." These are not so much insights as context setters. You know, like the rails in bowling.

The Great Tariff Debate Begins

Karl Marx, never one to shy away from critique, opens, "The bourgeoisie has once again imposed measures to protect their capital, this time through tariffs that burden the proletariat." Friedrich Engels nodded in agreement, adding, "These trade barriers disrupt the global supply chain, leading to scarcity and inflated prices for the working class."

Milton Friedman interjected, "Trade barriers are indeed detrimental. As I have long advocated, free markets should dictate the flow of goods, not governmental interference." He glanced pointedly at Marx, who just smiled.

A String of Conversations: The Dinner Table Dynamics

George Bernard Shaw, with his characteristic Irish wit, quipped, "It appears we've traded one form of madness for another. From the lunacy of laissez-faire to the insanity of interventionism."

Lots of soundbytes but not much substance yet - but amazing how real the soundbtyes echo in modern headlines.?

Alfred Marshall, ever the pragmatist, noted, "The elasticity of demand will determine how consumers respond to these price changes. Some goods may see a significant drop in quantity demanded."

A Wonder years Inner Monologue Moment: "Oh F*Ck, I thought to myself. It is 2024 but on steroids. Thankfully Klarna just announced a partnership with JP Morgan"

John Maynard Keynes leaned forward, "In the short run, these tariffs may protect domestic industries, but in the long run, they could lead to a decrease in overall economic welfare."

Naomi Klein, referencing her seminal work, commented, "This is reminiscent of the 'Shock Doctrine'—using crises to push through unpopular economic policies. The current trade tensions are no different."

Former President Trump, never one to miss an opportunity, declared, "These tariffs are making America great again! We're bringing jobs back and standing up to unfair trade practices."

Thorstein Veblen, observing the spectacle, mused, "It's all a display of conspicuous consumption and vested interests. The leisure class thrives while the common man suffers."

Real-World Impacts: A Contemporary Analysis

Recent reports have highlighted the tangible effects of these policies. Alot of people speak about it, we all have opinkions. The imposition of tariffs by former President Trump on goods from Canada, Mexico, and China has led to increased prices for consumers. Some immediage and some to come. Because of the changing nature of all of this, what it has done more than anything.

Investments in AI - $1T wiped off the US stock exchange in one day. Why? Let's quote Top Gun, Goose over to you "It was inverted".

“A universal law of economics says the moment something becomes free and ubiquitous, its position in the economic equation suddenly inverts. When nighttime electrical lighting was new and scarce, it was the poor who burned common candles. Later, when electricity became easily accessible and practically free, our preference flipped and candles at dinner became a sign of luxury. In”― Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future

Uncertainty.

Brands like Lululemon and Aritzia, though Canadian, produce most of their goods outside of Canada and might not see significant price hikes. However, the repeal of the de minimis exemption, which enabled tax-free import of goods under $800, could lead to higher costs for retailers and consumers, causing confusion and an increase in prices.

Additionally, the global fashion supply chain is undergoing significant changes due to the de minimis rule, which allows low-value parcels to enter the US duty-free. This rule has been exploited by huge numbers of companies but has had a particular spotlight shone up on it because of the rise of companies like Shein and Temu who continue to ship low-valued goods to the US in large quantities.?

The suspension of the de minimis rule poses challenges, including backlogs at ports, increased tariffs, and additional compliance costs. Smaller e-commerce businesses and US luxury resale markets are particularly vulnerable. This situation may shift consumer behavior towards higher quality products and benefit domestic brands while pushing global brands to rethink their supply chain strategies.?

History Repeating at 5G Speeds

As our spirited dinner party draws to a close, let us reflect on the parallels between historical economic thought and today’s e-commerce dilemmas. Kondratiev’s waves remind us that economic booms and busts are as predictable as your annual Amazon Prime Day splurge. Marx and Engels’ critique of labor exploitation is alive and well in the gig economy, where couriers race against time like it’s the Industrial Revolution on steroids.

But what’s accelerating this cycle? Enter Moore’s Law—predicting that computing power doubles roughly every two years. AI development has taken this to heart, making algorithms smarter, faster, and frankly, a little too eager to sell you things you don’t need at 2 a.m. AI-driven personalization is transforming e-commerce, from chatbots mimicking human sarcasm to product recommendations that know your preferences better than your therapist My therapist is pretty spot on, to be fair.?We are having great conversations about AI but the speed at which it moves, means we cannto cultivate it.

“We are morphing so fast that our ability to invent new things outpaces the rate we can civilize them.”― Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future

Yet, with great power comes great disruption. AI is reshaping supply chains, optimizing inventory management, and, ironically, replacing the very consumers it targets with automated buying bots.

No body is talking about this.

The future of e-commerce? A battleground where AI algorithms outbid each other on your behalf while you binge-watch dystopian dramas, Black Mirror much people??

In conclusion, dear guests and readers (if you are still reading this far), our dinner party has proven one thing: economic history is not just a series of cycles but a chaotic spiral now propelled by AI. Brace yourselves—2025’s e-commerce landscape will be one of hyper-efficiency, relentless competition, and, if Moore’s Law holds, increasingly existential product recommendations.

Farewell until our next dinner. Now, for some Irish coffees. “Is there any other kind” asked GBS.?

The paths to our future are littered across our past.

“Over the next three decades, scholars and fans, aided by computational algorithms, will knit together the books of the world into a single networked literature. A reader will be able to generate a social graph of an idea, or a timeline of a concept, or a networked map of influence for any notion in the library. We’ll come to understand that no work, no idea stands alone, but that all good, true, and beautiful things are ecosystems of intertwined parts and related entities, past and present.”― Kevin Kelly, The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future