The Vaccine Breakthrough

One of the big problems with dealing with the pandemic has been overpromising and underdelivering. This was due to be over in 12 weeks, then back to normal by Christmas. A Vaccine would be ready by September and so on. The good news is that the first of what look to be highly significant breakthroughs mean that vaccinations should be able to start. Headlines today suggest 1 million vaccinations per week by the NHS. So can talk of getting back to normal by April be sustained?

I've started working on the numbers.

Here goes:

1,000,000 jabs per week

@5 minutes per jab( check +admin) =5,000,000 minutes per week.

This is 83,333 hours per week of staff time

Or 4,333,316 hours per year

UK population ( 2019) 66.83 million

@ 2 Jabs per individual 132.66 million

50% of the population( 2 jabs) = 66.83 weeks ( 1 year 14 weeks)

75% of the population ( 2 jabs) = 99.50 weeks ( 1 year 47 weeks)

100% of the population ( 2 jabs) =132.66 weeks ( 2 years 28 weeks)

Now if medical staff work 7 hour day weeks for 240 days per year

Staff hours per year = 1680 hours

Number of staff required for year is 2,579.35 FTE

Now this assumes 100% compliance ( no cancellations/missed appointments/duff batches)

10% noncompliance would be a minimum starting point

It also assumes no side effects to be investigated

2-5% would be a good starting point for first 6 months falling towards 1 % if effective

This implies around 3000 FTEs for the vaccination programme for 2 years

It ignores transportation, logistics, stock control ( freezer storage at -80C).

There are around 7000 GP practices in England. Adding Prisons, MOD, Scotland, Wales and NI looks to be around 8500 locations. There are approximately 11,500 pharmacies. I cant find the number that offer vaccinations, but 2020-2021 Flu round shows around 2 million cumulative in pharmacies ( September -November). That adds capacity of 34,000 per day but number of locations not clear.

@ 100 per day that is around 340 locations

@ 50 per day 680 locations

So a reasonable estimate is delivery to potentially around 9000 locations . Here the question is whether people will be expected to go to a local centre such as their GP or Pharmacy or concentration on " Nightingale" style solutions. There is a big trade off here in tackling the most vulnerable people as we have seen with people in Reigate being offered Aberdeen for their COVID test local site.

Where is the spare capacity for that in lorries and drivers? Army could provide the drivers but the refrigerated transport is tied up with Brexit food and medicines preparation without COVID-19 complications.

Now what we do not know is how long the vaccine is effective. The above figures work if there is no need for an annual top up as with flu. All of these numbers are in addition to existing capacity challenges.

Given the impact on mental health of people in the UK with the pandemic so far and the staff burn out within the NHS along with the failings on Track and Trace, promising " back to normal by April" and throwing big numbers around doesn't address the real challenge we all face.

We have the first really good news and it is important to celebrate the global science that has delivered this in such timescales. I offer these figures in the hope that someone might see how to scale them to deliver faster, safely with less resource.

Stay strong.