Using Simulation Modeling for Comparative Analysis of Indonesian Dairy Goat and Dairy Cattle Productivity Over a Ten-Year Period

Prepare a short paper to explore the productivity and population dynamics of Indonesian dairy goats and dairy cattle over a ten-year period, focusing on the impact of shorter intergenerational periods and artificial insemination programs on herd expansion and cumulative herd milk production.

Using a simulation model, analyse herd growth based on realistic reproductive rates, with baseline parameters including MY350, Days in Milk (DIM), and lactation persistence. Scenarios are to combine artificial insemination programs utilizing unsexed and sexed semen, examine their effects on reproductive efficiency, genetic selection, and herd growth rates. Both systems should be initialized to produce 2,500 kg of milk per day.

Anticipated simulation results are expected to reveal the important role of reproductive rates and population turnover in shaping total herd output. Dairy goats, despite their lower individual milk production, are projected to achieve significantly higher cumulative milk production over the study period due to faster intergenerational turnover and population growth rates.

The findings will underscore the importance of utilizing species-specific reproductive dynamics to optimize husbandry strategies in resource-constrained environments. This short paper will also provide actionable insights into the economic viability and scalability of small ruminants in dairy farming systems, contributing to the development of a sustainable livestock production framework in Indonesia and similar regions.