Using Data to Determine EV DCFC ROI
Stable.Auto Financial Pro Forma

Using Data to Determine EV DCFC ROI

Sona Energy Solutions wants to own and operate #evcharging #DCFC stations (acting as a Charge Point Operator - CPO) because we believe it is going to be an amazing business opportunity in the very near future.??

But belief is a hard way to run a business, especially one that requires a lot of money, time, and effort to get off the ground (which DCFC CPO does).??

As an engineer, I am incapable of operating anything in my life on belief alone.? All my decisions are influenced by data.? It could be hard numbers (ie - historical financial performance of large index) or just basic life experience (ie - I’ve encountered this type of customer - based on their assumed DISC profile - in the past, so this is how the data says they will respond).?

Data driven decision making is the key to successful business outcomes.?

When it comes to necessary data for a CPO business, one of the most important data points is utilization.? If a charging station doesn’t get used it doesn’t make money.? The most prominent company I’ve found to help estimate utilization is Stable Auto .

I recently utilized Stable's tool to run the analysis on a site that we were investigating with a retail center property owner on whether DCFC would be a good investment on their property.? Based on the location alone (NYC Metro), we *believed* it would be an ideal location.? Plus, Con Edison has a great incentive program to help with the cost of installation!? But our belief wasn’t enough to convince the site owner with or without utility support.? We needed data and Stable’s tool was able to help us quickly analyze the ROI of a DCFC installation.

Once I entered the address and info on the number and speed of chargers I wanted to utilize (Stable’s platform allows for multiple configuration scenarios) Stable was able to perform two critical functions shown in the images below:

1) Utilization Estimates - this info is used in the financial pro forma (image from Excel download from the Stable tool shown at the top of post)

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Estimated Weekly EV Charging Sessions
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Estimated Time of Day EV Charging Sesions

2) Energy Cost Analysis - their tool imports utility tariffs for the selected utility service the address. You can then run difference scenarios on different utility tariffs and even add an option to change a tariff at a later date (ie utilization or kW demand increases at some point in the future making a different tariff more economical)

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Energy Cost Overview


Operating Profit = Revenue (tied to Utilization) - Costs (largely Energy Costs) --> Stable's tool is the best I've found that quickly does both.

Obviously there’s a lot more consideration that a CPO has to take into account like :?

  • Construction costs
  • Hardware selection to ensure high utilization (ie see my posts on Tesla/NACS)
  • Strategies to reduce energy costs like programs the utility doesn’t have approved yet (but are in front of PUC) to reduce demand charges for CPO’s
  • Reducing maintenance costs using warranties and maintenance contracts and intelligent site design
  • ETC

But none of the above makes sense to work on if a deal can't be closed because the CPO or property owner doesn't believe DCFC on their property is a good investment.

The hardest part in getting buy-in from site hosts and investors is helping them understand the financial opportunity that DCFC represents. Using data makes that conversation easier. Stable’s tool is the best publicly available one that I’m aware of at comprehensive project analysis.??

Sona Energy is in the middle of installing several DCFC sites that we will be able to capture empirical data from. The data from our installations will be used with the Stable model to help Sona improve our site evaluation and analysis process and move faster on DCFC site development!

If there's one thing we all can agree on as it pertains to EV Charging, or Business, or Policy.... or just Life:

A good data-driven model is better than belief!??

If you know of other tools out there please let us know!

And if you own property and are interested in partnering on #EVCharging opportunities or you’re an investor interested in partnering on DCFC projects please shoot me a message!

Shawn Burns

Accelerating the Energy Transition | Microgrid and Distributed Renewables | BD, Growth & Partnerships

1 年

I am a big fan of Stable Auto's analysis tools! I agree that utility incentives don't make the case strong enough for site owners. Chris Kaiser is right, for some sites, the available federal and state incentives help reduce reliance on utilization to some degree as a primary cost recovery component in the business case. Retail property owners also benefit from the secondary source of in-store and amenity-related revenues as a result of dwell time while charging.

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Stef Melotte

Chief of Staff at Dear Digital

1 年
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Your story about the retail property owner is a great example of how utility incentives *alone* don't convince site owners to install #DCFC. Getting a "deal" on electricity isn't enough to push business leaders to say yes to investing in #EV infrastructure. Making a business case that marries charger utilization (revenue!) with costs (electricity) is key. Thanks for sharing your experience of using Stable's data-driven tools to get your client to a confident "yes"!

Clyde Boyce

EV chargers and marketing consultant

1 年

To date, that is the issue with just about any charger. Not enough utilization. IMHO adding thousands more Level 2 chargers is somewhat of a waste. They are too slow and they are only valuable in destination locations, such as hotels, retail operations, multi-family (if you install enough chargers). Stand alone or locations that offer no amenities are a waste of time. Utilization will never be high enough to accomplish a positive ROI, and the "I want it now" perspective is just not going to accept a charging time of 3-4 hours to get 100 miles of range.

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Dale Gibby

Technical Specialist Mechanical Engineer at Cummins Inc

1 年

"Data driven decision making is the key to successful business outcomes." Not all decisions can or should be data-driven decisions. Ford chose not to fix the Pinto because the liability was expected to be less expensive. They made a data-driven decision on an ethical problem and people died as a direct result. I doubt Apple had hard data that showed the iPhone would be the next big thing before they committed to it. But what they had was a technical vision of what they thought it could be. Hard data for the future can be hard to come by. NASA did not inform the astronauts on Space Shuttle Columbia that some engineers thought foam might have damaged the shuttle-- because there was no data. Being data-driven was used as an excuse to put 7 lives at serious risk. Data driven is appropriate in many cases. But not all.

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