Using AI to prevent Contrails

Contrails, those thin white lines trailing airplanes, have a surprisingly large climate impact. And, no, there is no switch to turn them on or off on the flight deck. The 2022 IPCC report noted that clouds created by contrails account for roughly 35% of aviation’s global warming impact – which is over half the impact of the world’s jet fuel.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionising sustainable aviation by addressing the significant climate impact of contrails.

Contrail formation is influenced by specific atmospheric conditions, notably humidity and temperature. Not every flight contributes equally; a minority of flights are responsible for the majority of contrail-induced warming. This variability presents an opportunity for targeted interventions.

In a pioneering initiative, Google Research collaborated with American Airlines and Breakthrough Energy to develop AI-driven contrail forecast maps. By analysing extensive datasets—including satellite imagery, weather patterns, and flight trajectories—the AI system predicts atmospheric conditions conducive to contrail formation. During a six-month trial involving 70 test flights, pilots utilized these AI-generated predictions to adjust altitudes and routes, successfully reducing contrail formation by 54%. This initiative marks the first verifiable demonstration that commercial flights can alter paths to minimize contrails and, consequently, their environmental footprint.

While these adjustments led to a 2% increase in fuel consumption during the test flights, studies suggest that targeting a small percentage of flights for contrail avoidance could limit the overall fuel impact to approximately 0.3% across an airline's operations. This approach offers a cost-effective strategy for airlines to significantly reduce their climate impact without substantial increases in operational costs.

This collaboration exemplifies how AI and digital innovation can contribute to a more sustainable future by addressing complex environmental challenges. By leveraging AI to optimize flight paths and reduce contrail-induced warming, the aviation industry can take meaningful steps toward mitigating its role in climate change.