#USElection2024 One day before the vote: What we know about the current state of voting projections

Because the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election will not only condition the future of American citizens, it will also greatly influence the worldwide future in the medium and long term.

What is now very likely is that there are 7 swing states, and voting estimates in the other states seem well established. Excluding swing states, this would mean 226 electors for Kamala Harris versus 219 for Donald Trump, given that the majority needed to be elected is 270 electors (electors who then vote for the president on december 17, 2024).

Concerning swing states

Pennsylvania (19 electors), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) & Nevada (6). For this 2024 presidential election, the polls estimate that the vote will be particularly close in these 7 swing states, where the polls are all within the margin of error (between 0 and 3%) making it impossible to predict the outcome in those states that will swing the vote towards one or other of this year's US presidential candidates.

Key points one day before the vote

The votes of women and communities (Afro-American, Latino and Arab) would prove decisive in these 7 states, where the outcome is highly indecisive. Kamala Harris has an edge on the women's vote with abortion rights, Latinos and the Puerto Rican community in particular are likely to punish Trump for recent racist remark at one of his meetings, the Arab community is likely to punish Harris for supplying arms to Israel in the war in Gaza and Lebanon, and Afro-American particularly affected by inflation under the Biden/Harris administration, and too some Afro-American men who seem reluctant to vote for a woman, which could reduce the number of votes traditionally highly cast for the Democrats in the Afro-American community. A final key point is the vote of seniors who are worried that Trump will affect their health or their retirement. Finally, let's note that a recent poll surprisingly gives Harris winning in Iowa. But this state only offers 6 electors, which will probably not be decisive.

Detailed overview, by swing state

A Kamala Harris victory in the three neighboring states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania would be enough to secure her victory. Harris seems to have quite an advantage in Wisconsin, but in the two other states, as in Nevada, the Democrat and the Republican are neck and neck, holding on to 1% of the vote. Donald Trump maintains his best advantage in Arizona (between 2 & 3 points). And while he's still ahead in Georgia (2 points) & North Carolina (1.5 points), the latest New York Times poll puts Harris ahead in these two states, a reversal of his situation at the end of September. This is due in particular to her progress in the large African-American population. If Kamala loses a state in the north, such as Pennsylvania or Michigan, she will absolutely have to make up for it in the south with Georgia or North Carolina.

In the end, we have to be carreful because the US Electoral College system is such that all it takes is a 2-3% of error in the polls for Trump or Harris to win a landslide victory...

Verdict tomorrow... or a few days later because the number of appeals promise to be very high...

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Last trends - 1 day to vote, Kamala Harris wins.