Use the Force: Developing "Forcesight" by Prioritizing Forces Over Megatrends

In a world captivated by the allure of megatrends, it's easy to be swept away by the currents of change, focusing solely on the waves without understanding the tides that create them. Continuous forcesight invites us to delve deeper, to explore not just the trends that shape our present but the forces that will sculpt our future. This exploration is not just an academic exercise; it's a crucial strategy for organizations and individuals aiming to maintain their future fitness in a rapidly evolving disruptive landscape.

Before we dive into the why, let’s define our terms. Megatrends are large, transformative shifts that affect a wide range of activities, processes, and perceptions, both globally and locally. They are the observable currents of change. Forces, on the other hand, are the underlying drivers of these shifts; they are the deep currents that power the waves of change we see on the surface and will have an active impact on your organization, industry, or world.

Focusing solely on megatrends is akin to navigating by the stars without understanding the winds and currents that actually guide your journey. While megatrends offer valuable insights into the direction in which the world is moving, they often lack the depth needed for effective long-term strategic planning. They tell us what is happening, but not why it’s happening or how it might evolve.

Focusing on forces allows us to look beyond the immediate and apparent, offering a deeper understanding of the dynamics that drive change. This focus empowers us to:

Anticipate Change - understanding the forces at play, we can anticipate shifts before they become megatrends. This foresight is crucial for staying ahead of the curve and preparing for future challenges and opportunities.

Drive Innovation - Innovation is not just about responding to the present; it's about anticipating the future. By focusing on forces, organizations can identify areas ripe for innovation and position themselves as leaders rather than followers.

Develop Robust and Future-test Strategies - a strategy built on the understanding of forces is inherently more robust. It is adaptable to changing circumstances because it is rooted in the drivers of change, not just the manifestations of those drivers.

Future-fitness -Organizations that understand the forces shaping their environment are better equipped to withstand shocks. They can pivot more easily and maintain their relevance in a changing world.

So, how do we shift our focus from megatrends to forces? It begins with curiosity and a willingness to ask deeper questions. Instead of asking what is changing, we should ask why it is changing and what underlying forces are driving that change. This requires a multidisciplinary approach, referred to as Tapestry.

Just as a tapestry comprises interwoven threads of different colors and textures, the future is shaped by the interplay of diverse forces. These forces include the areas of TPESTRE (technology, politics, economics, social, trust, regulatory, and environment). Each thread represents a different force, and together, they form a picture of the future. By examining each thread—each force—closely, we can begin to understand the tapestry as a whole.

This approach encourages a holistic view of the future, where the focus is not just on individual trends but on the complex interplay of forces. It fosters resilience and adaptability, equipping organizations to navigate uncertainty more effectively. By understanding the tapestry of forces, organizations can move from merely reacting to changes to actively shaping their future.