The USA is about to have its own Brexit ...

The signs are all there since Trumps election win in 2024 - the USA is about to have its own "Amexit" mirroring the UK and leaving a large trading block, trying to tackling immigration and changing their partner agreements. In the case of the USA Trump wants to pursue a policy of America First so how will it play out and what might it mean for Ireland?

Withdrawal from a Major Trade Agreement

• Context: Similar to the UK's departure from the European Union, "Amexit" could involve the U.S. pulling out of a major trade agreement like the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) or a global body like the World Trade Organization (WTO).
• Impact: This could lead to renegotiated trade deals, changes in tariffs, border controls, and potential economic disruption with key trading partners. Trump has already spoken about an eye watering 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. I don't think he realises half of all tomatoes into the U.S. come from Mexico. Trump needs to Google "Who really pays tariffs?"

2. Exit from a Military Alliance

• Context: An "Amexit" could involve the U.S. exiting NATO or another international defense agreement, akin to the UK's shift away from EU defense policies post-Brexit.
• Impact: There could be shifts in global military alliances, changes in defense spending and new security dynamics as allies adjust to a U.S. withdrawal. Trump obviously has no idea how many troops are based in Europe and the kind of political clout that gives the US in foreign policy decisions.

3. Leaving an International Climate Agreement

• Context: The U.S. has had a history of fluctuating involvement in international climate agreements like the Paris Accord. A complete and permanent withdrawal could be seen as an "Amexit" from global climate cooperation.
• Impact: This could affect global environmental strategies, lead to domestic policy changes and impact international diplomatic relations focused on climate change. Trump famously said that rising seas would give him more "beach front property" so I dont think he grasps the concept of millions of displaced Americans due to floods or hurricanes and the financial and societal pressures that will put on his Government. Just look at the polluted mess the UK waterways are in due to deregulation post Brexit.

4. Separation from the United Nations

• Context: An "Amexit" scenario could involve the U.S. fully withdrawing from the United Nations, similar to how Brexit signified a break from the political institutions of the EU.
• Impact: This could reshape global diplomacy, reduce U.S. influence on international policies, and force the U.N. to adapt to a major funding and leadership gap. Trump clearly doesn't understand the threat from Russia and Putin and his expansionist plans. He is likely to be engaged in a War with China over Taiwan anyway.

5. Complete Economic Isolation (Protectionism)

• Context: "Amexit" could describe a move towards extreme economic isolationism, pulling out of most global trade, economic agreements, and reducing immigration similar to Brexit's focus on "taking back control" over borders and economy.
• Impact: This could lead to shifts in domestic industries, inflation, changes in the labor market, and redefined global supply chains, mirroring the economic uncertainty that followed Brexit. The "clown car" crash fiscal policies of the Tory Government in the later days of their Brexit Administration show how fiscal economies are to policy shifts. The USA economy is founded upon cheap goods from China and Mexico and closing the border to economic imports would make inflation sky rocket and cause a huge hole in their labour market for manual workers just like the UK still has. The US national debt is currently €$36 trillion - watch that grown in 2025.

So what will it mean for Ireland?

Simon Harris spoke this week about an "Economic Shock" becoming more likely for Ireland in the event of change in Economic Policy by the US which might affect FDI investment here. He mentioned a figure of €10bn being lost to the Irish economy in which the Irish Fiscal Council has persistently warned the Government is "over reliant" on foreign tax revenue for day to day running of the country. I listened to two people I trust in the IDA and Enterprise Ireland this week and they said the reality on the ground is somewhat different. US companies are embedded in Ireland both from an economic and technical point of view. Its possible .. but in reality not easy for them to stage a withdrawal from the Irish (EU) marketplace without serious impacting on the bottom line. They say those US companies are here for the long haul - irrespective of who is in the White House. As for other factors - its less clear on shifts in the Euro/Dollar exchange rate, our position on neutrality in NATO, our standing in Irish American relations and the Irish Diaspora living abroad or American tourists coming here might all change.

But if Brexit is anything to go by Trump will have his hands full trying to prevent crashing his own economy, wasting trillions on failed immigration policies, managing a rapidly disgruntled voter base, trying to reform his entrenched public sector and battling a hostile political opposition. Not to mention he is 78 and his health is unknow as he didnt release his medical records. He simply may not have the time or energy to meddle in foreign policy decisions in between playing golf.

Move over Brexit .. Amexit is coming.

END.