The U.S. vs China: The One Sided War

The ongoing US-China trade war is spiraling out of control to the point where every country in the world will be negatively impacted. Everyone is worried. Everyone wants to find a solution. However, no one has found a way out.

The situation has now reached the point where both the U.S. and China may well have concluded that the benefits of continuing the fight outweigh the costs. On the U.S. side Donald Trump sees the Sino-American trade war as a means of taking attention away from the events undermining his administration while at the same time showing his isolationist followers that he is fighting their fight. From his point of view, any agreement with China would nullify those advantages. On the Chinese side, Xi Jinping having recognized that under no circumstances would the U.S. compromise, sees the fight as a means to show the world that he is the leader of a sensible, rational and moderate government placed in an impossible position by Donald Trump a lunatic with whom serious discussions are impossible. 

What we see as an ongoing trade war, is but a symptom of a far more serious disconnect: China’s and The U.S. opposing worldviews. We all see ourselves, and others, through our own eyes. What is true of individuals is equally true of nation-states.

In this regard, the two adversaries are no exception. 

While we in the West see China as revisionist power trying to move towards global economic domination, the Chinese see that for 2000 of the past 2200 years, China was the home of the world’s largest economy, responsible for 25% of world GDP. From their perspective China’s government is simply looking for a return to the status quo ante. In this regard the 2025 Technology Plan and their new Belt and Road project are just two of China’s strategies to meet their goal. From the Chinese point of view achieving that goal may take generations. However, taking the long-term view is very much a Chinese characteristic.

Contrast China ultra-long-term perspective, with the U.S.’ ultra-short-term perspective. The U.S. is a country where economic value is measured in quarterly profits; where the government plans to “solve” the China problem before the midterm elections in early November. It is only apposite that while Xi Jinping is planning a strategy for the next 100 years, the U.S. is run by a president with an attention span measured in minutes. 

Based on their worldview, American’s (as well as most Europeans) see China as the ultimate revisionist power whose aim is to dominate the world both economically and politically. Their only question is what steps should be taken to overcome China’s ambition. Americans see themselves in the grip of two distinct opposing forces. The Trump supporters who see the President as take-no-prisoner leader who will make the U.S. great again. On the other side are those who see the President as a temporary aberration who once out of the way will be replaced by reasonable and leaders will undo the terrible damage he has caused and allow sensible government officials to negotiate an equitable solution to the China problem. 

Chinese see the U.S. through Chinese eyes. Their view of President Trump and the U.S. Government is based entirely on their own experience. They believe that they understand Trump because their history is filled with many Trump-like rulers, who invariably came to the fore at each dynasty’s decaying end. These Trumpoid emperors were totally driven by their psychopathic narcissistic impulses. In every case the Trumpoid emperor replaced competent ministers with corrupt flunkies thus hastening the final collapse. History has taught the Chinese government and people that at the end of each dynasty an opposition invariably rose, who were confident that once the Emperor Trump met his end, they would rise up and restore the dynasty to its past greatness. Chinese know that in each and every case both Emperor Trump and his opposition were living in La La Land. 

Based on this understanding, Xi Jinping and his government are content to wait out events. From their point of view, they cannot negotiate with the U.S. because there is no one in the U.S. with whom they can negotiate. Promises made by the U.S. president have 0 value, nor is there any U.S. representative capable of entering serious negotiations. In this regard, the very idea that the U.S. Secretary of Treasury Mnuchin can negotiate a change in policy is from the Chinese side risible. Mr. Mnuchin cannot negotiate on behalf of the U.S. Government because Mnuchin has already been undercut by his boss so many times that he is now totally emasculated. From the Chinese point of view, serious people do not negotiate with third class eunuchs

As a result, while President Trump is confident that he can force the Government of China to negotiate and in doing so bend them to his will, the Chinese see no interest in any negotiations whatsoever. Of course, as civilized people the Chinese will attend negotiations where they will listen attentively to U.S. demands, as befit world leaders.

More to the point, China has nothing to gain from negotiations with the U.S. other than the recognition from third parties that they are trying their best to deal with the irrational Donald Trump. At the same time there is no reason why the Chinese government should fight or even negotiate when Trump is already providing everything China needs to go forward? China’s goal to have a seat at the world-leaders table has been facilitated by Mr. Trump who has left the U.S. seat all but vacant.

? President Trump having left the Paris Accord has allowed China to become a leader in the fight against global warming;

? President Trump having moved the U.S. to total economic, political and cultural isolation has allowed China to become the world’s leading proponent of international trade, support for the least developed countries, and commitment to the arts;

? President Trump, having declared each and every one of America’s former allies and friends to be enemy states, has lost virtually all international support, leaving the way open for China to become everyone’s friend including not only European and African countries but also such unlikely allies as Russia, North Korea and Iran;

? President Trump having castigated U.S. corporation for their failure to sign-on to his tariff war has left the way forward for China to become allied with U.S. business interests by assuring them that regardless of Trump’s tariff war, China will protect U.S. investments in China

Ironically, in many respects China and the U.S. share the same world view albeit from different ends:

? Both governments want to change the world economic order because both recognize that what we call the world economic order is simply the work of the rich and powerful to ensure they maintain their position against the poor and weak. Trump, believing that the U.S. does not enjoy benefits commensurate with its power and position, want a bigger share. On the other hand, Xi, believing that China does not have the position to which they are entitled, wants a place at the table of world leaders

? Both governments see the world as totally corrupt. China sees this as an advantage on the international level where their companies are encouraged to bribe foreign officials and corporate executives to assist China, while on the local level corruption within China is a criminal offense. On the other hand, The U.S. Government encourages bribery of government officials within its borders, while at the same time declaring bribery by U.S. companies to political leaders outside the U.S. to be a criminal offense. 

So it is that the Chinese will listen and talk patiently while the U.S. tears itself apart. Everybody knows that serious negotiations cannot take place until Trump is gone, and even then the U.S. has little to negotiate with. 

There can be little doubt that after the end of the Trump era and after the dust settles, China will emerge, at least economically as the first among equals.

The question is, where does that leave us?

I think the answer lies in the history of China.

China’s history is divided into a series of very short-lived dynasties that brought great upheaval bloodshed and change; followed by long lasting dynasties of great stability. The most recent short term was the Mao Zedong era that moved the country from its old feudal past to the modern era. While everyone in China is grateful for the changes wrought by the Great Helmsman, the fact remains that as a result of Chairman Mao’s Great Leap Forward and his Cultural Revolution, tens of millions does of starvation and worse. That period has ended and a new era under Xi Jinping may be the beginning of a long period stability and benefit for all Chinese people

I suggest that in this new era, the world has little to fear from China. The government and its people have no interest in world dominance let alone a world takeover. At the end of the day, the Chinese government and its people want stability. For Chinese people, the WISH MAY YOU LIVE IN INTERESTING TIMES is a curse. Chinese people all want to live in boring times. Of course, if pushed, China will push back and push back hard. China wants to be part of the world as a respected world-leader. However, the focus of the Chinese Government and its people has always been directed inwardly towards China. Once we in the West recognize the limits of Chinese ambition they will reach a mutually accommodation. At the end of the day, China can be a good friend or a terrible enemy.