The US is Turning A Corner
Over the past three weeks, US citizens have significantly implemented social distancing. There is a massive 59% decrease in travel shed (defined in this post here), and all other indicators of staying at home (such as the number of people watching TV and using streaming services) are up. Skype is up 70% in March. Every way I've looked at the data, there is a massive change in behavior.
While the news of more deaths from COVID-19 will increase, the underlying spread of the virus is slowing. Take a look at the number of cases in the US as reported on John Hopkins dashboard.
Using the logarithmic chart, as I've shown with my previous articles about Italy and South Korea, is a good way to tell if we are flattening the curve. We can now see the curve bending downward.
Another proof point is the metric I shared yesterday for Italy. It is taking the new cases and dividing by the number of cases seven days prior. In the US, that number has been cut down by two thirds. It is now at 84% as this chart shows. Granted, 84% is still too high to take the pressure off the medical system this moment. But it is trending in the right direction, and should follow the pattern we've seen in Italy and South Korea. I'd expect it to be half as much next week, and half again as much (around 10%) by mid April.
Cases lag exposure by about a week, so the drop in daily new cases we are seeing now is because of our social distancing starting in the middle of the month. Deaths lag infections by about three weeks, so it will take a bit more time for our efforts to #StayHome to show up in terms of lives saved.
A better leading indicator than cases is the initial symptoms. These appear about 2 to 5 days after exposure. A fever is a common symptom, and thanks to OTT thermometers, we have a leading indicator of future cases. Kinsa has made their data available. Social distancing is not only slowing COVID-19, it is also depriving the seasonal flu (the blue line is typical) of hosts.
We aren't done. It isn't time to throw a party to celebrate, unless you are doing it with a video chat. But, this is progress. This country will have to put measures in place to guard against a second wave, but the data shows we can slow or stop the virus.
Advisor, Mentor, Listener, Career Coach, Grassroots Organizer, and Consultant
4 年Although there seems to be a positiv trend in this data, I would caution its interpretation for a few reasons. Without extensive and widespread testing across the US, which we heard from the majority of State officials is by far not extensively available across the US, it's very difficult to assume there is a decline in Covid-19 infections. In addition, it's a commonly shared fact among scientists that the unaccounted cases of Covid-19 infections is around 6-10 times higher than the officially reported number. Also, if you look at the numbers in Italy, it's somewhat misleading because many patients who are infected with Covid-19 are afraid to go to a hospital, in which case they would be seperated from their loved ones , and as a result decide to die at home in the midst of their families. These infrections of even deaths are not accounted for in any Covid-19 statistics. And let's not forget the Non-Covid 19 deaths that have sharply risen in the past few weeks. Why? Beccause people are just afraid of a possible Covid-19 infection or to die in isolation once in the hospital. Thoughts?
Board Director at PetMeds (NASDAQ:PETS)
4 年A good read. Nicely done, Rex!
Head of Effectiveness
4 年Data is consistent death plateau at 150K +/- 100K There is still big uncertainty here to call.
Hi Rex, thanks for your efforts to keep us all focused on facts to understand the progress we’re making. We all need to stay disciplined to make sure the trends in leading indicators related to behavior become visible in lagging indicators related to our health. Fingers crossed and looking forward to your updated insights. Stay safe!